Pakistan: Marching Toward Failure Status

The last few weeks have shown the trajectory of Pakistan's future.

First were the increased terrorist attacks in the heart of Pakistan against the Sri Lankan cricket team, followed weeks later by an attack on a police training compound. Basically, the cities are under siege.

Then there was the beating incident by the Taliban of a young woman for some undetermined 'crime', without any signficant response by the central government.

And what followed all that? President Asif Ali Zardari actually signed the peace deal with the Taliban.

Now, what is happening in Swat, the central area of talibanization? Foreign fighters are flooding in, setting up house and even setting up new terror training camps. U.S. officials contend the pact has given the Taliban and its allies in al Qaeda and other Islamist groups an advantage in their long-running battle against Pakistan's military.

This bodes badly for the U.S. and Afghanistan. Taliban leaders in Swat make no secret of their ultimate aim. "Our objective is to drive out Americans and their lackeys" from Pakistan and Afghanistan, said Muslim Khan, a spokesman for the group, in an interview here. "They are not Muslims and we have to throw them out."

The stupidity of the peace deal is historical fact. Nearly all the peace accords reached in the past few years in areas near the Afghan border, where the Taliban are strongest, have collapsed. Often they have left the militants more powerful. A similar deal in Swat fell apart last year after the Taliban renewed attacks on Pakistani forces.

This is ultimately what happens when you compromise to an enemy that hates your very existence. Hillary Clinton suggested last month we should try to talk to the Taliban; well, she is getting her wish through a surrogate, Pakistan, and we are seeing the clear results. There is growing sentiment in intelligence circles that Pakistan is fracturing, with the Western terrritories mostly ungovernable and turning into islamist dominated states, and the eastern portion of the country remaining more secular.

As much as I have focused on Iran and North Korea the last few weeks, Pakistan is the heart of the matter. Destabilization of this keystone nation has repercussions through out the Middle East and Asia. For example, how do we think India is going to respond to a destabilized Pakistan, especially in an election cycle? Especially considering the recent Mumbaiattacks that originated in Pakistan, I think India is wary of any instability across the border. I don't think anyone really knows. And Zardari, as predicted, has been a weak and ill abled leader of the Pakistanis.

Many countries, most notably Japan, have agreed to help donate billions to Pakistan to stabilize the country. Unfortunately, the money is unlikely to solve the problem. The U.S. alone has given over $10 billion since 9/11, and things have just gotten worse. The Pakistanis themselves are playing both sides, with the military supporting American interests, and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) supporting the Islamists. The U.S. military may have to take an even more invasive role in Pakistan to halt the progression of extremists there...not an enviable thought.