134th Kentucky Derby : How to Pick a Winner from the Field

For over 134 years, Churchill Downs Racecourse in Kentucky has raced horses. They sponsor an annual race with a $2,210,000 purse for the winner if all twenty horses entered into the race run.

A friend of mine races her horses in Washington. From her I learned just how expensive it is to raise a winning horse. Horses are bought, sometimes after a mare is bred but before the filly is born, sometimes the owner pays the stud fee. From the moment of conception until race day, that horse is fed, housed, checked by a veterinary, and trained by a trainer. Three years later, the horse may be ready to race, sometimes four years later.

If the horse is trainable, healthy, strong enough to race and has the will to win, the horse is entered into a race. To cover expenses, my friend typically created an owner consortium, a group of people willing to pay a portion of the upfront costs and take the risk that the horse will never race. If a horse races, it will earn money for the owner or consortium from the race purse. Usually, the first five placing horses will earn a return for the owner. Races that are listed as claiming races run an additional risk for the owner, that someone will pay the claiming amount and purchase the horse that they've already invested so much money in.

What makes the Kentucky Derby exciting for the owners is a chance to win over two million dollars. What makes the Kentucky Derby exciting for the audience is the incredible beauty, strength, drive, speed and daring a race embodies in the form of the best horses in the country competing against each other.

People that attend horse races held at a track like the Churchill Downs to see a race like the Kentucky Derby always want to know how to pick a winner. Bettors are provided huge amounts of information meant to aid them in their gamble, but it is a gamble. Until the very moment the gun is fired at Churchill Downs and the gates opened and the Kentucky Derby race run, there is no certainty. Many things can go wrong. A jockey or horse may get ill or injured. An owner can pull their horse from the race. A horse can get stuck in a position behind other horses or against the rail and not perform up to potential. The race track conditions at Churchill Downs can change from light and sandy to wet and muddy. And so many more. That is what makes the event so thrilling. Any horse entered into the Kentucky Derby can win the race.

What the Kentucky Derby Race statistics and industry experts can tell you:

1) their instinct and best guess-see expert's predictions about who will come in and in what place for more information.

2) the fastest speed the horse has run in the race distance-races vary in length.

3) if the jockey and horse are used to racing together.

4) the weight of the horse and of the jockey

5) whether or not the horse has the will to win-check the number of wins, and places.

My preference for picking a winning horse is to :

1) Study up on the statistics and exclude horses that haven't won many races-these show a lack of will to win.

2) Study up on the statistics and exclude horses that haven't won races at the 1 1/8 mile distance.

3) Create a list of horses with the fastest times for the given track length-1 1/8 miles for the 134^th Kentucky Derby which is fairly long.

4) Look at a horse just before the race when they are paraded and see if the horse is eager to run-their ears alert, eyes bright.

5) Exclude any horses that are overly nervous-heavily lathered, fighting the grooms or have a bowel movement.

These criteria mean, expect to watch the parade of horses while they are saddled and ridden to the start gates usually 10-15 minutes before post time although coverage begins at 5 pm EST. Post time for the 134^th Kentucky Derby is 6:04 pm EST and is shown on NBC-18. I typically place my bet with under five minutes to post time. See KentuckyDerby.com for detailed statistics and predictions.

My preference for placing a bet is:

1) Avoid any horse that meets the above criteria with the lowest odds-these are usually the industry experts choice of who will win the race.

2) Pick a horse that meets the above criteria, has good odds and take a show bet.

My favorite horses to watch in the Kentucky Derby:

--Eight Belles, Visionaire, Denis of Cork

and favorites Colonel John and Big Brown.

There is no guarantee that my methods work any better than anyone else's. But my experience has been that I walk away from the races with about the same amount of money that I brought to the races, sometimes more.

Oh, and by all means, if you place a bet, scream loudly for your horse to come in first during the race. It makes the race more fun.