135th Run for the Roses. Who Stands a Chance!

Every year the best horses in the nation and for that matter in the world spend the winters and early spring making there preparations for what is considered the most prestigous race on the planet. Win the Kentucky Derby and your name is etched in history among racing imortals. Win the Derby and you become the only horse that can try to sweep the triple crown by winning the Preakness on May 16th and the Belmont Stakes 3 weeks afterward. No horse has done that since Affirmed did it in 1978. So who are this years likely candidates? Well 20 horses are headed for the gate more than likely which makes the race more like a calvary charge. You could have the best horse in the race but you better get a good trip otherwise you will still fall short. So lets take a look at some of the better horses in what is shapiing up to be a quaility field of 3 year olds.

Quailty Road has done everything with..well..quality! He won the Florida Derby impressively and has used that as his final prep race. However the Daily Racing form has reported (registration required) that he has suffered from 2 quarter cracks in his foot and his connections say that if he can't workout Monday. He may not run in the derby. This is the same condition that affected Big Brown last year. So he is questionable for the race and were he to run he will be among the favorites.

Fresian Fire comes out of spending the winter in Louisiana where he won big but he was pretty much beating the same horses over and over. His win in the Louisiana Derby was impressive however what happens when he faces the other big winners of his age group? So he still has some question marks.

Square Eddie is a horse that i would consider. He spent the winter recovering from an injury and his connections choose to bring him back in the Lexington at Keeneland last week. He made a winning move on the turn but flattened out in the stretch and finished forth. Still a nice performance for his first race back and i'm sure his connections weren't going to go all out to win the Lexington when its the Derby you want to win. He should be tuned up and ready to roll next Saturday.

No horse has impressed more in my view than I Want Revenge who won the Gotham at the beginning of March and then won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 4th after a disastrous beginning where he missed the break and spotted the field 6 lengths. He still managed to find a seam and win. He will probably be the post time favorite and in my view the horse to beat.

Pioneer of the Nile is coming from California where he has handled everything that he has run against. But the quaility of those horese he beat was questionable and frankly i was not impressed at all with his last 2 wins especially in the Santa Anita Derby. His main west coast rival in that race was to be The Pamplemoose who looked to be the real thing until he was sidelined with an injury. Pioneer was all out to win in the Santa Anita Derby and i think he is a notch below the others. He will be overbet and i think there will be better value elsewhere.

These horses look to be among the ones to pay most attention to however there are some other horses out there that have "bomb" potential as they will run at big odds. I will tackle those others later.