2006-2007 Big East Basketball Preview (Part I)

After last year's expansion, a 16-team Big East was expected to be the nation's dominant basketball conference. With a record eight NCAA Tournament bids, and Top Ten teams in Pittsburgh, Connecticut, and Villanova, the Big East looked primed for a solid showing in the NCAA Tournament.

But a string of upsets in the tourney, most notably George Mason's shocking upset of UConn, left the Big East without a Final Four team. This year, the conference will look to repeat its regular-season success while bringing home Final Four appearances - and maybe a national title.

With pre-season top 25 picks in Syracuse, Connecticut, PIttsburgh, and more, the top of the Big East looks as tough as ever. Yet the conference's strength has traditionally been its depth, so we start our preview with the projected bottom half of the conference.

(2005-06 records include post-season results)

South Florida Bulls
2005-06 Results: 7-22, 1-15 Big East
Key Losses: G James Holmes, F Solomon Jones

South Florida's introduction to Big East play was a rude one, as they went 1-15 in their inaugural season, their only win coming in their final game at home against Georgetown. Heading into this season, the Bulls lose their top two scorers from a year ago, and another last-place finish seems likely. A decent recruiting class may contribute immediately, but South Florida has a long way to go to catch up with the rest of the Big East.

Projected Finish: Sixteenth

Cincinnati Bearcats
2005-06 Results: 21-13, 8-8 Big East, lost to South Carolina in NIT Finals
Key Losses: G-F James White, F Eric Hicks, G Jihad Muhammad, G Devan Downey (transfer)

One of last year's biggest disappointments, the Bearcats lose four starters and six of eight leading scorers from a year ago (including point guard Devan Downey, who transferred to South Carolina). New coach Mick Cronin will try to rebuild a program left in disarray by the ouster of former coach Bob Huggins and a turbulent season under interim coach Andy Kennedy.

That said, the Bearcats still have talent. Forward Cedric McGowan was a hard-nosed bruiser a year ago; an excellent rebounder, he should increase his offensive production in the absence of leading scorers James White and Eric Hicks. Four junior college transfers must contribute immediately for the Bearcats to compete in the Big East this season. But with such a large loss of talent, and a new scheme, this looks to be a rebuilding year for Cincinnati.

Projected Finish: Fifteenth

Rutgers Scarlet Knights
2005-06 Results: 19-14, 7-9 Big East, lost to St. Joseph's in first round of NIT
Key Losses: G Quincy Douby, C Jimmie Inglis

No team suffered a bigger loss than Rutgers did when Quincy Douby declared for the NBA Draft (he went 19th to Sacramento). Douby led the conference in scoring in 2005-06 (and finished eighth in the nation) with 25.1 points per game.
The junior guard led the Knights in scoring in all but one game a year ago (a meaningless early-season win over Delaware State).

Rutgers does return seven members of last year's rotation, and the RAC remains a surprisingly difficult place to play. But unless two or three Scarlet Knights step up the scoring, any improvement over last year's tenth-place finish will be difficult to achieve.

Projected Finish: Fourteenth

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2005-06 Results: 16-14, 6-10 Big East, lost to Michigan in second round of NIT
Key Losses: G Chris Quinn, F Torin Francis

The Notre Dame season ended fittingly a year ago: with a double-overtime loss to Michigan. The Irish lost eleven games by six points or less a year ago - including four straight by a total of eight points - and were seemingly just a few bounces away from a successful season. Notre Dame loses leading scorer Chris Quinn and their best big man Torin Francis, but three starters and two key reserves return.

Sophomore Kyle McAlarney can help fill Quinn's shoes; he averaged six and a half points a game a year ago off the bench. The question for the Irish will be in the frontcourt. Three sophomores and two freshmen will battle for playing time alongside returning starter Rob Kurz; their effectiveness will likely dictate the Irish' success this season.

There is enough talent here for the Irish to aim for another NIT berth; but a twenty-win season or an NCAA Tournament bid seem a bit out of reach for this squad.

Projected Finish: Thirteenth

West Virginia Mountaineers
2005-06 Results: 22-11, 11-5 Big East, lost to Texas in Sweet Sixteen of NCAA Tournament
Key Losses: C Kevin Pittsnogle, F Mike Gansey, G Johannes Herber, G Patrick Beilein, G J.D. Collins

West Virginia's back-to-back run of Sweet Sixteen appearances is in jeopardy this season, as the loss of four starters - and their four leading scorers - signals a rebuilding year in Morgantown. Senior forward Frank Young is the only returning starter, and along with point guard Darris Nichols the only veterans on the Mountaineer roster this year. Butler transfer Jamie Smalligan will add size to the frontcourt, but West Virginia will be forced to rely on a number of unproven players this season.

How well the Mountaineers succeed will depend on their ability to run coach Jim Beilein's offense, and whether inexperienced players such as sophomore Alex Ruoff and freshman Joe Mazzulla can contribute. With so little experience, it will be a learning season for the Mountaineers, and the success of the past two seasons seems unlikely.

Projected Finish: Twelfth

Seton Hall Pirates
2005-06 Results: 18-12, 9-7 Big East, lost to Wichita State in 1st round of NCAA Tournament
Key Losses: PG Donald Copeland, F-C Kelly Whitney

Seton Hall was the suprise of the Big East a year ago; picked to finish fifteenth by the coaches, they instead won eighteen games and received an at-large berth into the NCAA Tournament.

The Pirates, however, will have a new look in 2006-2007, and it may not be pretty. New coach Bobby Gonzalez (lured away from Manhattan College) inherits a squad that loses its two leading scorers from last year's team, and lacks a consistent threat to replace them. With experienced guards Jamar Nutter and Paul Gause, and depth in the frontcourt, the Pirates will still be competitive. But another NCAA Tournament run seems highly unlikely. Then again, it appeared so a year ago, too.

Projected Finish: Eleventh

Providence Friars
2005-06 Results: 12-15, 5-11 Big East
Key Losses: G Donnie McGrath

The Friars have gone a combined 9-23 in Big East play the past two seasons, but 2006-07 should be an improvement. Despite losing leading scorer Donnie McGrath, Providence returns four starters and two more key reserves, while also welcoming a decent recruiting class. After competing with only eight scholarship players a year ago, the Friars will be deeper and more experienced. If rising sophomore Sharaud Curry can shoulder the burden left by McGrath, Providence will be a dangerous team.

Projected Finish: Tenth

Villanova Wildcats
2005-06 Results: 28-5, 14-2 Big East, lost to Florida in Elite Eight of NCAA Tournament
Key Losses: G Randy Foye, G Allan Ray, G Kyle Lowry, G Mike Nardi

The Wildcats' dream season came to a cruel end against eventual national champion Florida a year ago, just short of the Final Four. Now, the Wildcats must rebuild without their top six players of a year ago. Forwards Shane Clark and Dante Cunningham lead the returning Wildcats, though each averaged just over two points a game a year ago. The addition of McDonald's All-American Scottie Reynolds will help, but the big bonus is the return from injury of F Curtis Sumpter, a two-time All Big East selection who will lead this young Villanova team.

Even with Sumpter, however, the Wildcats look to have a tough time scoring. With so little experience and so few offensive threats, the Wildcats seem unlikely to finish in the top five of the Big East, let alone repeat their number five national ranking of 2005-06. The talent is there for coach Jay Wright, but Villanova is at least a year away from returning to national - or even Big East - contention.

Projected Finish: Ninth