2006 NBA Preview: The Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks had a season filled with mix emotions in 2005. While they got in the playoffs and finished above .500, the Bucks were hoping for so much more out of first year coach Terry Stotts and rookie sensation Andrew Bogut. The Bucks' quick exit from the playoffs and the insecurities of Bucks fans with a revolving personnel door has made it anxious times in Cream City. Milwaukee did indeed make some interesting moves in the 2006 NBA off-season, but the Central Division is one of the toughest in the league and the Bucks are still unpolished. I was a big Terry Porter fan and when they let him go after the 2004 NBA campaign, I felt that the Bucks were heading in the wrong direction. However, the combination of some good role players and burgeoning superstars Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut means that the Bucks will be an interesting team to watch in 2006.

Front Court
Center Andrew Bogut played well enough last season to show why the Bucks picked him first overall in the 2005 NBA Draft. While he didn't have a dominating season, he proved that he can be a force inside, has the polish to hit a few clutch shots, and is durable enough inside to stay out on the court for an entire season. Alongside Bogut this season will be fellow second year player Charlie Villanueva, who had a strong season for the Raptors in 2005 and came over in a trade for point guard T.J. Ford. If Villanueva and Bogut can stay out on the court all season long, Eastern Conference teams will need to watch out. In three to five years, this tandem will be in its prime and could dominate not only the East but the NBA in general. At small forward, Terry Stotts and his staff will expect more out of Bobby Simmons, who had a decent but not spectacular season in 2005. Simmons needs to be more consistent on the defensive end for him not to be a liability on the floor.

Back Court
While T.J. Ford may not have been the most durable player in the NBA, his 2005 season showed the skills that the Bucks saw when they drafted him with their first round pick a few years back. Ford is gone now, with Charlie Villanueva coming over from Toronto, and the point guard position is a three-way contest at this point. Maurice Williams would seem to have the edge because of his consistent play as a spot starter and key reserve for the Bucks. However, Steve Blake came over from Portland this off-season and has developed into a solid game manager. The dark horse is Charlie Bell, who played well in 56 games with the Bucks last season. Give the advantage to Williams but Blake will push him for minutes. At shooting guard, the Bucks are hinging their franchise on Michael Redd. Redd is a prolific scorer and athletic, but is a bit of a black hole and doesn't get his teammates involved as much as Stotts would like. Redd is the one consistent scorer on the Bucks and needs to be "on" every game for them to have a chance.

Bench
Dan Gadzuric received a big contract last season, perhaps too big for his contributions to the team. However, Stotts wants to get Gadzuric in because he is a persistent rebounder, a big body in the paint, and harbors no illusions of scoring many points. However, the addition of forward Ruben Patterson means that Gadzuric will have fewer minutes. Patterson is a more prolific rebounder than Gadzuric and, when he isn't a head case off the court, plays every minute like it is his last. Second round pick David Noel is an athletic forward who can slash and get up and down the court, but needs to work on his shooting and defensive ability. The combination of Gadzuric, Noel, and Patterson is one of the better groups of front court bench players in the league. As mentioned before, the point guard position seems fairly solid off the bench but Stotts needs to keep one guy in the starting lineup or the team may suffer from a lack of cohesion.

Intangibles
Coach Terry Stotts is already on the hot seat one year after taking over the team from Terry Porter. Stotts, who was a well renowned assistant for many years, did not seem to have the type of qualification to take the job from Porter, who had one down year where the roster shuffled quite a bit. There are a lot of questions about the combination of Stotts and general manager Larry Harris and their ability to assess and cultivate talent. The 2006 NBA season is their chance to show their ability level and based on my assessment at least one of the two leaders of this franchise will be out by season's end.

2006 NBA Projection: While the Bucks have an enormous amount of talent on their 2006 squad, I am not convinced Terry Stotts is the coach to put it together. As well, a lot of their strongest players have a few important tools to playing in the NBA (i.e. Ruben Patterson is a rebounding machine) but lack the overall polish to make the Bucks a playoff contender. The Bucks are in the playoff hunt until the end of the season and place fourth in the Central Division. Expect a repeat of last year, with 39-43 wins.