2006 NCAA Football Preview

The upcoming NCAA football season should be interesting, with the end of the Bush and Leinart dynasty at USC, increasingly competitive mid-major football conferences, and a top-to-bottom improvement in the major conferences like the SEC and the Big Ten. The following list is how one writer sees the Top 25 shaking out at the end of the 2006 NCAA football season and it should be noted that such projections are difficult given the occasional upsets that take place any given Saturday. However, this Top 25 should be consistent with the best talent pools in the entire nation.

1. Ohio State- The combination of quarterback Troy Smith and wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr. Could be lethal in 2006, if both can stay healthy. Jim Tressel has to adjust to the loss of a great group of players to the NFL but has a great, talented group that will be able to pull out close games. As well, the Buckeyes benefit from a stronger conference than USC which will help out their BCS numbers.

2. USC- While great college players like Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart, among others, have left for the pro game, Coach Pete Caroll still has a full cupboard of talent and great confidence in his coaching ability. Wide receiver Vidal Hazelton is a great pro prospect as an incoming freshman and quarterback John David Booty has had two years behind Leinart to learn how to be a winning quarterback. There is the possibility of multiple undefeated teams and USC will be among that group, considering the relative weakness of the Pac-10.

3. Notre Dame- Charlie Weis gets future NFLer Brady Quinn back for another season at quarterback and the Irish are looking to build on a great first season under Weis. Notre Dame needs to capitalize on the presence of Quinn in the offensive backfield in 2006, because there will be a fall off from Quinn to whomever takes over in 2007.

4. Auburn- Tommy Tuberville is only two years removed from being Coach of the Year and a national championship winner and he has another team capable of winning the SEC and the national championship. As usual, Tuberville has a great defense that should shut down most offenses in the conference, with David Irons and Will Herring leading a solid squad. The Tigers have experience at winning big games and will use that to compete for a BCS berth in 2006.

5. Texas- Mack Brown had a great season in 2005, winning the national championship and quieting doubters who have questioned his ability to win the big game. Brown, however, loses Vince Young and some other great role players in 2006 and will have to contend with the pressure of being a defending champion. While Texas has great talent, there are several other teams who may have both the talent and experience to vault to the top of the BCS standings.

6. West Virginia- Mountaineers coach Rich Rodriguez has a great deal of talent at West Virginia and they should be good enough to stay in the Top Ten throughout the season. However, the great deal of competition among the Top Ten will keep them out of national championship contention though in the race for a BCS berth.

7. Louisville- The new decade long commitment of coach Bobby Petrino to the University of Louisville means that the Cardinals will be able to build something great in the next ten years. Quarterback Brian Brohm is quickly becoming another in a long line of great Cardinals quarterbacks and should be a contender for the Heisman Trophy. Petrino and Brohm will give Louisville a chance at a BCS birth in 2006 and possibly 2007.

8. Florida- The Gators will have a solid season, though Urban Meyer won't be able to crack his way into the BCS bowl games. The problem will still be their offensive performance, as I am not convinced that quarterback Chris Leak is the same caliber as quarterbacks under Steve Spurrier and I am unconvinced that the Gators can get their running game functioning well enough to be considered a factor.

9. Miami (FL)- The Hurricanes will almost always be a presence in the Top Ten based on sheer talent, but they are not good enough to jump their way into the BCS. Larry Coker always does well in recruiting but the Miami Hurricanes often have off the field issues that distract from their overall performance. Still, if they can stay in the Top Ten despite such problems and issues with consistency against lesser opponents, the Canes will have opportunities down the road to play in the BCS.

10. California- California will remain second fiddle to the USC Trojans in 2006 and they will start to feel the Arizona State Sun Devils nipping at their heels. The Golden Bears have enough offense to compete against weaker teams in the Pac-10 but are nowhere near good enough to beat USC, even without their superstars of the past three seasons.

11. Oklahoma- The recent dismissal of quarterback Rhett Bomar and guard J.D. Quinn due to knowingly violating NCAA rules is disconcerting, now matter how reassuring Bob Stoops tries to be. However, the Sooners still have the talent to stay in the BCS hunt, though are nowhere near experienced enough to give Texas a run for their money.

12. Michigan- Lloyd Carr has taken a lot of abuse from Wolverines fans and football pundits, but Carr has come out of it relatively unscathed. In the Big Ten, the top and the bottom of the conference are becoming closer in talent and Michigan will benefit from other teams like Iowa and Wisconsin beating up on each other. As well, Carr's team includes a number of players that are battle tested and can win the big game.

13. Georgia- The loss of D.J. Shockley at quarterback means Mark Richt will have an open quarterback battle for the open spot. Unfortunately, guys like senior Joe Tereshinski and sophomore Blake Barnes do not give Richt the same offensive threat as Shockley or former quarterback David Greene. As well, the Bulldogs have had a few off-the-field issues in 2006 and that may influence their standing in the division. However, the Bulldogs have a great deal of talent on defense and at the other offensive positions and Richt will be able to get Georgia to a solid bowl game.

14. LSU- Coach Les Miles did an admirable job with a displaced team in 2005 and the Hurricane Katrina aftermath left LSU students to scramble throughout the region for schooling and housing. However, the 2006 season for the Tigers was a learning experience and their resolve is now stronger than most teams in the nation. While the SEC is as competitive as ever, few teams have had the adversity of LSU and look out for the Tigers in the next few seasons.

15. Iowa- The Hawkeyes had some struggles last year with injuries at the running back and quarterback positions but coach Kirk Ferentz was able to keep Iowa in a lot of games in 2005 with good play calling. Look for Iowa to move up in the conference and be a contender in 2007.

16. Penn State University- The Nittany Lions defense was great in 2005 and look for them to have an even better performance in 2006. However, Joe Paterno's offense is going to have problems like it did on occasion last season and the perfect storm that helped give Paterno new coaching life last season won't come together this season. The rest of the Big Ten is too good for the Nittany Lions to win the conference with average offensive talent.

17. Arizona State- The Sun Devils throw the ball all over the football field and look for Arizona State to be competitive in the Pac-10, though they aren't in a position to push USC or California for the conference championship. On defense, they aren't disciplined or talented enough yet nor is their running game good enough to supplement their passing attack.

18. Nebraska- Bill Calahan has had several years to shoehorn a West Coast offense into the University of Nebraska, with a tradition of option quarterbacks and great running backs. This season, the Cornhuskers will finally have the type of talent that may allow this type of offense to run effectively. However, Nebraska is still not in a position to push for the Big 12 championship game.

19. Tennessee- Philip Fulmer will have the Volunteers bouncing back from a disappointing 2005 campaign and Tennessee will be a presence in the Top 25 starting immediately in 2006. Fulmer's talent pool was strong in 2005 but injuries and late-game disappointments led the Volunteers down the wrong path. Look for Fulmer to have his team playing solid ball this season, though whether it is good enough for him to keep his job in 2007 is up for debate.

20. Fresno State- Pat Hill prides himself on getting the Fresno State Bulldogs to a position of national prominence, especially with a great season in 2005 and a solid performance against the defending champion USC Trojans. The Bulldogs play hard every game and the only thing holding Fresno State from an even higher standing in the Top 25 is the weakness of their conference.

21. Virginia Tech- The Hokies are glad to be rid of the walking character issue that was quarterback Marcus Vick, though their options at the offensive skill positions are starting to wear thin. Coach Frank Beamer has always relied on defense and special teams to win games, but without a quarterback that can make the big play they won't be able to push above 21st in the Top 25.

22. South Carolina- Coach Steve Spurrier has done wonders in his first two years with the University of South Carolina football team, left in ruins following a difficult tenure by Lou Holtz. Spurrier will get them to another bowl game in 2006, have them competitive in the ultra-difficult SEC, and the Gamecocks will be poised to climb the polls in 2007.

23. TCU- The Horned Frogs dominated the Mountain West Conference last season in their first season in the conference and 2006 should be no different. The Mountain West has not improved enough to stop an outstanding TCU offensive attack and MWC teams like Utah and BYU cannot compete with the level of talent they have on both sides of the ball.

24. Oregon- Oregon will manage to get into the Top 25 if only because they will be able to beat many of the weaker teams in the Pac-10 and they have a decent offensive attack. The loss of Kellen Clemens to the NFL means that another quarterback will have to be broken in, but the Ducks have some good receiving options and a passer-friendly offensive scheme.

25. Wisconsin- New head coach Bret Bielma inherits a good amount of talent, especially on defense, and an experienced quarterback in John Stocco. Even though former coach Barry Alvarez left Bielma a significant amount of time to adjust to recruiting and game planning, it will still be tough for Bielma in the shadow of Alvarez's legacy and Wisconsin will need another year to move up the Top 25.

Top Two Honorable Mentions
Utah- The Utes has a great passing attack with quarterback Brian Johnson beginning to come into his own as a starter at the end of the 2005 NCAA season. Look for Johnson to put up big numbers in a pass-heavy offense and for some big numbers to be put up on the scoreboard due to poor defensive play.

Florida State University- Bobby Bowden's legendary career is starting to head into a decline and the Florida State Seminole's inability to put together consistent performances over the last few years signals an end to an era in Tallahassee. However, Bowden is still a good coach and his talent is still good enough to put them near the Top 25, though not good enough to climb onto the list.