Best Actress in a Leading Role:
Helen Mirren in The Queen:
Put it in ink, put money on it, whatever else. This is absolutely the biggest lock for a nomination in the awards this year. Mirren is an exceptionally talented actress who has been around for quite a long time with a background in Shakesperean acting who has rarely ever put on a bad performance. In this film, she plays a very important, real life figure in Queen Elizabeth, during a tragedy that's still relatively fresh in everybody's minds (the death of Queen Elizabeth). Mirren is a highly respected actress who has never won an Oscar and this is exactly the kind of high-profile role that Oscar loves; playing a real person in an important historical event. Mirren is probably the favorite to win the award right out at this point, the only things working against her (maybe) are the earlier release date for the film and the fact that the Academy generally hasn't been giving out best actress to older actresses lately. That's nitpicking, as Mirren is guaranteed a nomination and has a good chance of winning.
Meryl Streep in The Devil Wears Prada:
Might seem a little unlikely, but I think Streep has a VERY good chance at piling on to her "most nominated actor of all time" credentials with this film. The Devil Wears Prada was actually a very huge hit over the summer (I believe breaking the $100 million mark) and it wasn't very expensive to make. Streep is almost always an Oscar contender because, well, she's Meryl Streep but this film in particular has her playing against type (which the Academy loves), going pure, all out evil (which the Academy also loves) and in a hit film to boot. The only question is whether or not she'll be marketed as lead or supporting actress but from what I've read so far she's been pushed as a lead and therefore stands a good chance.
Renee Zellweger in Miss Potter:
Chris Noonan steps behind the camera for the first time since Babe in 1995 and directs the true story of legendary children's author Beatrix Potter. A-list actress, Oscar winner and love of my life Renee Zellweger steps into the role and the film opens with a VERY nice Christmas release to show it off for Oscar time. Zellweger has already proven she can do a more than convincing British accent, and this time she gets to bring it to a meatier, historical role with a strong feminist message. Good accent plus (once again) playing a real person should make her a really strong contender to be nominated and I'd say it's safe to pencil her in at this point.
Penelope Cruz in Volver:
Cruz steps into her first starring role in several years in Pedro Almodovar's new film, about a dead woman returning to reconcile problems with her two daughters. Sounds like a hokey premise, but Almodovar is a VERY talented filmmaker who probably adds more to the material than we can imagine. It's a Spanish film, and foreign films have trouble getting nominations sometimes, but Almodovar can be likened to the Latin American Steven Spielberg (as in he's HUGE), plus he's well liked by the Academy (he's a multiple Oscar winner). The Academy loves to nominated younger, gorgeous, talented actresses and Cruz seems to have all those in spades. I think her celebrity status coupled with Almodovar's respect make her a strong contender for a nomination.
Nicole Kidman in Fur: An Imaginary Portrait of Diane Arbus:
Perrenial Oscar contender Kidman steps into another very juicy, high-profile role, as one of the most important photographers of the 20th century Diane Arbus. The film deals with Arbus turning her back on her wealthy family in order to pursue her dreams and gain her own success. Early reviews have proclaimed Kidman's performance to be absolutely stunning and she certainly has a shot at a nomination. What's working against her here is that the film is in VERY limited release and might not be seen, plus Kidman herself has been keeping an unusually low profile and not promoting the film but given the nature of the role (real person) and her respect as an actress she's certainly in the running.
Keisha-Castle Hughes in The Nativity Story:
Catherine Hardwicke directed the critically acclaimed Thirteen and returns with the story of the life of Mary leading up to the birth of Jesus Christ. Mary is played by Castle-Hughes, who was nominated for Whale Rider a few years ago. It's an obviously high-profile, juicy role and both ladies have garnered respect in the industry. The Academy has a bit of a history of ignoring overly religious films, but from what I've read this one seems to shy away from controversy to tell the story of a strong-willed woman. It comes out on December first and should get a good buzz around Christmas time and I think taking on that kind of role is VERY daring and demanding for a young actress so I wouldn't be shocked to see Keisha Castle-Hughes included in the list of nominees.
Sienna Miller in Factory Girl:
This project has been in the works for a REALLY long time, and finally came to fruition this year. Miller stars as famous New York City socialite Edie Sedgwick, who among other things dated Bob Dylan, hung out with Andy Warhol and company, travelled with the Hell's Angels, battled fierce substance abuse and died young. It's quite a story and could be quite the lofty performance. Miller hasn't done much to establish herself as an actress before this and a few rumors have called her performance into question, plus the movie will only be in VERY limited release in December but it's being released in December so they can push Miller for an Oscar.
Kate Winslet in Little Children:
Another perennial Oscar contender, I don't even remember the last year in which Winslet didn't have a performance that wasn't being considered for an Oscar. It's for a good reason though. She's a very talented, chameleonic actress who takes very versatile performances in stylistically different films. As the lead in Little Children, Todd Field's first feature since the heavily-nominated In the Bedroom she plays a very strong yet tortured housewife carrying on in affair. It's supposed to be a VERY weighty role with some very frank sexual work from Kate (which she isn't exactly a stranger to). She's well-liked by the Academy and will get a lot of attention for this role, and I think it wouldn't be a stretch to at least pencil her in at this point.
Beyonce Knowles in Dream Girls:
I detest the thought of it and I don't think it's going to happen but as the leading role in a heavily promoted Hollywood musical coming out on Christmas, based loosely on Diana Ross Knowles can't be counted out for a nomination here. The reviews from people who have already seem to film have indicated that Knowles is a very impressive musical performer but her dramatic acting lives a little to be desired. With several potentially upstaging supporting performances in the film (including Eddie Murphy, Jamie Foxx and newcomer Jennifer Hudson) and her lack of acting experience it's a bit of a long shot but it could be that Dream Girls gets a LOT of awards attention and Beyonce goes along for the ride.
Judi Dench and Cate Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal:
I list both actresses here because everything I've read seemingly indicates that they split leading lady time. The story is Blanchett plays a teacher who has an affair with an underage student and Dench plays a colleague who had a role in the affair. Both teachers draw a heavy amount of attention as more of the story is uncovered. Blanchett and Dench are both fantastic actresses who have won best supporting actress in the last 8 years and the film will offer them a great chance to play off of and upstage one another. It could be that the presence of both of them in the same film will split votes, or that one of them (most likely Dench) will be pushed for Supporting Actress but they will unquestionably get attention.
Other possibilities:
Naomi Watts in The Painted Veil, Kirsten Dunst in Marie-Antoinette, Sally Field in Two Weeks
Up next, a look at the supporting roles.
Published by Adam Karabel
I'm a recently graduated film student who has been writing about film his entire life. Strong interest in pursuing written work regarding film. View profile
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