2007 Golden Globe Nominee Reactions (Part II)

(The actual nominees are in bold, my previous predictions in italics)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

BEN AFFLECK HOLLYWOODLAND
EDDIE MURPHY DREAMGIRLS
JACK NICHOLSON THE DEPARTED
BRAD PITT BABEL
MARK WAHLBERG THE DEPARTED

Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Eddie Murphy, Dream Girls*
Jack Nicholson, The Departed*
Brad Pitt, Babel*
Michael Sheen, The Queen

Alternates: Adam Beach, Flags of Our Fathers; Djimon Hounsou, The Blood Diamond; Jackie Earl Haley, Little Children

Three out of Five here. I'm not sure how I managed to leave Ben Affleck off the list despite listing him as a contender earlier in the year, but it happens. Odd that the star power of the supporting actor category out-weighs the star power of the lead acting categories but this seems to be the case, as all five of these actors can be considered A-list, movie-opening talent. Murphy is the life-long comedian making his first dramatic turn, playing against type, doing his own singing and (allegedly) stealing the show (which all adds up to some VERY tempting Oscar bait. Jack Nicholson plays one of the most vicious, evil, sinister roles of his life, dons a thick Boston accent and grabs a nomination. Jack is almost always a contender for an Oscar in any given year and that's partly due to his mystique but largely due to the fact that he's almost ALWAYS good. Brad Pitt is the big money, A-list, #1 Hollywood hunk who has always had the acting chops but rarely gets to show them taking on a weighty, emotional supporting role.

Those three are virtually guaranteed Oscar nominations. The other two could make a case for themselves but we'll know more later. I figured that Alan Arkin would get credit for his supporting work in Little Miss Sunshine, being that he was the veteran in the cast but I was fairly apathetic to his performance. I figured they'd REALLY want to nominate somebody playing Tony Blair but it could be in this case that Sheen just isn't a big enough name (might not necessarily be the case for the Oscars). Affleck was very good in Hollywoodland, showing a lot of his critics that he is indeed capable of a good performance. I'm skeptical about the Oscar nomination because the film was released several months ago but it could be that Affleck is big enough of a star to maintain attention. Wahlberg was a big surprise. The only people who really mentioned him as a potential contender were fans of the film who thought he stole all his scenes. He does steal all of the scenes he's in, but I think it has more to do with how the character was written than the person who was performing them. I think Wahlberg is a very strong, capable actor but a lot of people could have been plugged into that role. I don't think he'll move on to an Oscar nod. The race will probably boil down to Pitt and Murphy and I'm leaning towards Murphy at this point.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

ADRIANA BARRAZA BABEL
CATE BLANCHETT NOTES ON A SCANDAL
EMILY BLUNT THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
JENNIFER HUDSON DREAMGIRLS
RINKO KIKUCHI BABEL

Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal*
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dream Girls*
Catherine O'Hara, For Your Consideration
Sharon Stone, Bobby

Alternates: Rinko Kikuchi*, Babel; Meryl Streep, A Prairie Home Companion; Emma Thompson, Stranger Than Fiction

My weakest category so far with only two out of five. It was essentially two that I was sure about, one that I was fairly confident about and two shots in the dark. The two I was sure of, clearly were Blanchett and Hudson. Blanchett is having a stellar, high-profile year with roles in Notes on a Scandal as well as two other awards contenders The Good German and Babel. Notes on a Scandal seems to be the one she's focusing her strength on, as she gets to play opposite Judi Dench in a high-profile, showy role. Jennifer Hudson has been getting rave reviews from just about everyone for her role in Dream Girls. The former American Idol contestant churning out her first performance is getting praise from everyone, including people who don't like the film as much. I have read that she essentially shares screen time with leading lady Beyonce and out does her in both the acting and singing department. If she's as good as everyone says she is, she has a very good chance of WINNING the Oscar at this point (Hollywood loves Cinderella stories) and is at least guaranteed a nomination. I was surprised to see that Abigail Breslin wasn't nominated for her work in Little Miss Sunshine. I'm not generally a big fan of child performances, but her's was VERY good. She played a perfectly reasonable, curious, natural kid who reacted to situations in ways that real kids do. I thought she was the standout in that cast, plus she has the "aw, isn't she cute factor" going in her favor but she didn't manage a nomination here. Sharon Stone is a favorite of the Hollywood Foreign Press and has been called the standout in Bobby so I felt she could easily get the nod but that wasn't the case. Catherine O'Hara was very well-received in For Your Consideration, but after seeing the film yesterday I realized that a film with that much of a condescending nature towards Hollywood and acting isn't likely to get nominated for much.

Emily Blunt was a fan favorite for The Devil Wears Prada, plus she's a cute younger actress which is probably why she was nominated here. It's a comedic performance so she's not likely to get an Oscar nod, particularly if they push Miss Streep to supporting actress. Of the two Globe nominees for Babel, Rinko Kikuchi was the only person I saw on anybody's radar. Babel seemed to be the favorite of the HFPA this year which is possibly why her co-star Adriana Barraza was nominated as well. I could be wrong, but I do believe this is the first time that two actress have been nominated in the same category for non-English speaking parts in the same film. I'm admittedly ignorant about both of these actresses and have yet to see the film so I can't really comment much further. I will say that this nomination will unquestionably help their chances at Oscar nods, as this isn't a particularly strong year for supporting women's performances.

BEST SCREENPLAY - MOTION PICTURE

GUILLERMO ARRIAGA BABEL
TODD FIELD & TOM PERROTTA LITTLE CHILDREN
PATRICK MARBER NOTES ON A SCANDAL
WILLIAM MONAHAN THE DEPARTED
PETER MORGAN THE QUEEN

Pedro Almodovar, Volver
Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine
Bill Condon, Dream Girls
William Monahan, The Departed*
Peter Morgan, The Queen*

Alternates: Guillermo Arriaga, Babel*; Todd Field and Tom Perrota, Little Children*

Another two out of five. The Golden Globe for Screenplay is harder to predict than the Oscars because they don't distinguish between Original and Adapted screenplays. William Monahan wrote a very good, tightly wound, intense script with well-developed characters. Peter Morgan's screenplay was an adaptation of a relatively famous book. Both of them should go on to Best Adapted Screenplay Oscars. Little Miss Sunshine is just the kind of film that usually wins a Screenplay Oscar; the small, independent but ultra-successful fan favorite movie. Didn't make it here but I'd say it stands a very good chance at a nomination come Oscar time. Bill Condon is a very well-established screenwriter with an Oscar win to his name but it could be that Dream Girls isn't a writer's movie. Arriaga likely rode the wave of Babel to get nominated. If Babel doesn't win any of the major awards (which I think is very possible), it will likely win best screenplay and best score from the Globes. Todd Field and Tom Perrota are likely to get A Best Adapted Screenplay nomination for Little Children. Patrick Marber is a relative unknown who has worked mainly in television, it's hard to judge whether he'll go from this point.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE - MOTION PICTURE

ALEXANDRE DESPLAT THE PAINTED VEIL
CLINT MANSELL THE FOUNTAIN
GUSTAVO SANTAOLALLA BABEL
CARLO SILIOTTO NOMAD
HANS ZIMMER THE DA VINCI CODE

Alexandre Desplat, The Queen
Clint Eastwood, Flags of Our Fathers
Phillip Glass, Notes on a Scandal
Randy Newman, Cars
Thomas Newman, The Good German

Alternates: James Horner, Apocalypto; Gustavo Santaolalla, Babel*

A whopping zero for five here, as this is easily the most oddball group of nominees imagineable. The only one I even had on my radar was one of the alternates. The only big name composer to be nominated was Hans Zimmer, for the Da Vinci Code, a film which made a ton of money but was almost universally hated and is receiving zero awards attention. Than there's Carlo Siliotto for Nomad, a film which I haven't even heard of. Clint Mansell for the Fountain, a composer I've never heard of for a poorly-reviewed, financially disastrous movie. Then there's Alexandre Desplat for the Painted Veil, a movie which wasn't nominated for any other awards despite boasting Ed Norton and Naomi Watts in leading roles. I can't believe that none of the big names; Eastwood, Glass and the two Newmans weren't even nominated. I have no idea what the criteria is here but I'm guessing these nominees have little to no impact on the Oscars themselves.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

APOCALYPTO (USA)
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA (USA/JAPAN)
THE LIVES OF OTHERS (GERMANY)
PAN'S LABYRINTH (MEXICO)
VOLVER (SPAIN)BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Apocalypto*
Letters From Iwo Jima*
The Lives of Others*
Pan's Labrynth*
Volver*

The only category I go 5 for 5 in and it's Best Foreign Language Film. A little surprising, but honestly this was one of the easiest categories to predict. Take the two American movies in other languages from big name Oscar-winning directors (Gibson and Eastwood for Apocalypto and Letters from Iwo Jima respectively). Throw in the big production by a foreign (but successful American)director that is getting widespread American release. Add the other movie getting fairly widespread American release by the Spanish Steven Spielberg (Volver). Round it off with the insanely well-reviewed German film The Lives of Others and you don't really even need any alternates. I don't think this is much of a precursor to the Oscars. Apocalypto and Letters From Iwo Jima are essentially American films and I don't THINK will be eligible for the Best Foreign film Oscar, but don't quote me on that. Volver is a lock to be nominated as are the other two. This is a very tight race however, as you could make strong cases for anybody. I would say that it boils down to Apocalypto and Letters From Iwo Jima with Pan's Labrynth playing the sleeper. It could be that everybody hates Mel Gibson and Clint won't win any other awards at this ceremony and they'll want to give it to him.