2007 Hurricane Season Predictions
Expect a Lot of Hurricanes This Year
The information has come today from hurricane experts based at the University of Colorado and warns that the U.S Atlantic Basin will have an active hurricane season. The hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends on November 30
The hurricane meteorologists working on the University of Colorado team expect there to be as many as seventeen large storms that from in the Atlantic Basin during the 2007 hurricane season. Of these storms the meteorologists think that at least nine will reach hurricane strength and five of the nine will become significantly large hurricanes of 3 or higher.
One of the meteorologists working on the predictions, Phil Klotzbach, said, "We are calling for a very active hurricane season this year, but not as active as the 2004 and 2005 season. Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 74 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent."
The hurricane specialists use a number of factors to make their hurricane season predictions. Factors that are used include conditions of the atmosphere and world's oceans such as water surface temperatures, sea level pressures and the behaviour of El Nino. The meteorologists also study the conditions of previous years prior to hurricane season and what actually happened during that season to help predict what might happen in the upcoming hurricane season.
The hurricane forecasters have said that the combination of warm north Atlantic water surface temperatures, warm tropical water surface temperatures and the low La Nina activity all contribute to the formation of a lot of storms.
In 2006 the hurricane season brought two large hurricanes, five hurricanes and ten named storms, but luckily no of these storms made landfall on the U.S coast. 2005 was a very active hurricane season, which saw a total of 27 storms. Of these storms seven developed into large hurricanes and another fifteen reached hurricane levels.
The meteorologists have pointed out that people should not panic yet and that the recent hurricane seasons were unusual. Hurricane forecaster, William Gray, said, "The activity of these two years was unusual, but within the natural bounds of hurricane variation. We've had an upturn of major storms since 1995. We think this upturn of major storms will continue for another 15 to 20 years."
Both William Gray and Phil Klotzbach will be discussing their predictions at the National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans this week.
Sources
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-gray4apr04,1,492460.story?coll=la-headlines-nation
http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/apr2007/2007-04-04-04.asp
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/tech/news/4685984.html
Published by Siun Griffin
I have been a freelance writer for several years. I enjoy writing about a variety of topics, particularly the environment, animals, entertainment, and travel. However, I don't limit myself to those topics, a... View profile
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4 Comments
Post a CommentSo much for Predicitons....The "models" are just random number generators. Sort of like looking at tea leaves and pretending it means anything
I think the climate models which predict all this global warming diaster are being used to predict the severity of the hurricane season not the oil companies. Oil companies have very little control over oil prices at the wellhead and certainly no control over the climate predictors
I think the oil companies pay them to make these stupid perdictions. Maybe someday they will get it right. Try the physic hotline maybe that will work better.
These guys are a joke. They have no idea what the hurricane season will be like. They shoot their mouths off, oil prices spike, people panic, nothing happens then they sell you the same crap next year.