2008 - 2009 Orange Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech

Cincinnati #12 (11-2, 6-1) v Virginia Tech #19 (9-4, 5-3) ACC

Cincinnati

The Big East Conference may not be the best that the BCS has to offer, but Cincinnati still has a number of impressive victories under its belt. The Bearcats managed to get wins at West Virginia and Louisville as well as at home against a good Pittsburgh team on the way to taking the conference title. The fact that these games were won consecutively (November 8 - 22) underlines the fact that coach Brian Kelly now finds himself with a team playing with belief and now carrying momentum into the BCS bowl game - a game that his players will enter believing that they can beat anybody put in front of them.

Strengths

The Cincinnati defence has been a real success story this year, not only doing a great job of stopping the run, but also managing to register the greatest number of sacks in the conference. A lot of this success can be attributed to Connor Baldwin and Lamonte Nelms, both senior ends spending a lot of time in the opposition backfield causing trouble. This experienced theme is carried to the linebackers, with senior Ryan Manalac the team's leading tackler and anchor. When uninterrupted by injury, Tony Pike's presence has ensured a solid passing attack for the Bearcats. Cincinnati's signal caller broke his forearm against Akron (September 27) and also bruised his sternum late in the year. This has yet to unsettle his form though, as he has thrown for 2,168 yards, 18 touchdowns and interceptions for the season. For receivers, Pike knows he has a number of receiving threats in Marshawn Gilyard and Dominick Goodman and with one of the top passing offences in the Big East, Cincinnati can quite easily rack up large numbers of points quickly.

Weaknesses

Despite their solidarity in the air, the Bearcats have really struggled to find any leverage on the ground this year. With neither Jacob Ramsey nor John Goebel grabbing the mantle of 'go-to guy', the team has suffered from quickly giving up on running the ball. Most of the major plays this year by the offence have been through the air, and when the opposition have managed to shut down the receiving threats, they've managed to shut down the entire offence. Fumbles have also been a problem this year, with a constant stream of lost ball ensuring that the Bearcats have a negative turnover ratio, despite the relatively solid number of interceptions thrown and passes picked off by secondary. No matter how good the passing game, if the offense can't keep the ball for long enough to make use of it, then it's likely that the Bearcats will be shown up against BCS standard opposition.

Injuries

Coach Kelly also faces an injury worry, with cornerback Mike Mickens, a likely first round NFL draft pick returning from time off due to a torn meniscus in his left knee. Whilst his backup Brandon Underwood has been solid in Mickens absence, Kelly will no doubt be hoping for no recurrence of the injury to prevent Mickens returning after missing the last three regular season games. With injuries there is always a risk of a sudden recurrence, and if Mickens has rushed his return in time for the Bowl then he may break down, depriving Coach Kelly of a superb talent at closing down receivers.

Virginia

Despite its relative strength, the ACC does not have one really dominant team although Virginia Tech continue to improve and battled through the ACC Coastal division to make it to the conference championship. There they faced a Boston College team that had previously beaten them by five points earlier in the year, though this time the Hokies and Coach Frank Beamer were not to be denied.

Strengths

Despite their continual success on the defensive side of the ball, nothing defines this team more than its special teams play. Whenever VT manage to construct a half decent offense, they are always a great overall team, but sadly this isn't the case this year and the Hokies will this year fall well short of VT teams of the past. The defensive unit however, lead by star performers such as Victor Harris and Stephan Virgil on the corners and Kam Chancellor on free safety has the ability to keep this team in any game it plays. This is emphasized by the fact that the Hokies have allowed just 162 yards through the air a game and as long as the front four give enough support to the secondary nobody is going to throw too much at the Hokies. With a set of solid ends in Jason Worilds and veteran Orion Martin, this support has been there in general this year, but whether this will translate to the big game is another question.

Weaknesses

Blighted by an ever changing QB situation, the Hokies have struggled to get any consistency in offense this year. Senior QB Sean Glennon has managed little, throwing only three touchdowns whilst giving up five interceptions in the process. Tyrod Taylor, given the chance after Glennon's poor run fared little different - his record of two touchdown on six interceptions slightly worse than Glennon. Many consider Taylor the more dynamic playmaker however and he has shown far more ability to run than Glennon, scoring six from rushes on the season and managing to enliven an offence that would otherwise be far too easy to shut down. Freshman Darren Evans, despite some big games and having rushed for 1,000 yards on the season is still prone to mistakes and is an unknown quantity in games of this caliber. The receiver situation is little better, with Danny Coale and Jarrett Boykin the only players to really step up to the plate after an exodus of wide receivers after the 2007 campaign.

Key Matchup

VT Cornerbacks v Cincinnati WR - the battle for the game will be fought here. If Cincinnati can gain some leverage against the Virginia Tech cornerbacks early on, then it's game over. Likewise, if the cornerbacks can keep the lid on Gilyard and Goodman then Pike's solid yet unspectacular passing may be put under a lot of pressure. That said, the focus is on the VT defense to hold off Cincinnati all game - I can't see it going any other way than Cincinnati.

Score Prediction

Cincinnati 20, Virginia Tech 14