2008 Big Ten Tournament Preview

Big Ten Tournament time! In just its 11^th year, the Big Ten tourney has managed to have more than it's share of surprises. In 1999, the 11^th seed (out of 11 teams) made it to the final game. I'm not sure if Illinois fans are happier about the fact they made the finals, or more bummed about being the 11^th seed. In 2001 Iowa won the tournament as a 6^th seed. Might we see a similar upset this year? Read on.

Seeds, Matchups, and Schedule

Thursday, March 13th

(11) Northwestern vs. (6) Minnesota

(10) Illinois vs. (7) Penn State

(9) Michigan vs. (8) Iowa

Friday, March 14^th

(5) Ohio State vs. (4) Michigan State

(3) Indiana vs. winner of Minnesota/Northwestern

(2) Purdue vs. winner of Penn State/Illinois

(1) Wisconsin vs. winner of Iowa/Michigan

Saturday, March 15^th

Winner of Wisconsin game vs. winner of Ohio State/Michigan State

Winner of Purdue game vs. Winner of Indiana game

Sunday, March 16^th

Championship game

NCAA Tournament Implications

Locks

Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State

All four of these teams could lose their first game in the Big Ten tournament without having to worry about dropping out of the big dance.

Wisconsin could lose its first game and still have a 3-4 seeding locked up for the NCAA tournament. However, if the Badgers win the Big Ten tourney they could potentially grab a number two seed. End of the day, expect to see the Badgers as the 3 seed in the dance.

Purdue is going to have to continue to earn respect this year, because everyone is still trying to get used to the fact they are relevant. If the NCAA tourney started today, you would most likely see Purdue as a 4 seed. And that is about as high as they can go. If they win the Big Ten Tournament, they would still be looking at a 4 (possibly 3 if Wisconsin falls early) seed in the dance. The Boilermakers could drop down to a 6 seed, though, if they don't show something in the Big Ten Tourney. Luckily Purdue is 4-0 against Illinois and Penn State this year, outscoring the two by 51 total points. Look to see Purdue as a 4-5 seed come NCAA tourney time.

Indiana makes things a little interesting. They've lost two of their last three in ugly fashion (blown out by Michigan St and then beat by an average Penn State team) and are stuck with the dark cloud Kelvin Sampson left hanging over their heads. A 4 or 5 seed as of now, but could also fall as low as six if they go winless in the Big Ten tournament.

Michigan State has been a team of two personalities. On one side, they are a dominant team that is more than capable of beating anyone in the country. This side is evidenced by big a huge 103-74 win against Indiana and a six point win vs. Texas. The other side of Michigan State is the team that lost to the same Indian team they crushed by 19 points and suffered a horrid 36-43 defeat against a bad Iowa team. Most recently, the Spartans dropped the regular season finale 54-63 against the Ohio State Buckeyes. Inconsistent play has made it hard for me to decide whether or not I really like Michigan state to go far. If they get hot, watch out. But they also have first round upset written all over them. Right now they are a solid 5-6 seed. This number could rise as high as 4 with a Big Ten tourney win, or fall down to 7 if they lose their first game to Ohio State. Speaking of the Buckeyes...

On the Bubble

Ohio State

Ohio State has played their way on to the bubble, but I don't feel as if they have done enough to be in. Not yet. Back to back wins against Purdue, and then their first opponent Michigan State are impressive, but they dropped four in a row before that, including double digit duds against Minnesota and Michigan. The Michigan State game will be fun to watch after Ohio State beat Michigan State by 9 just five days earlier. If they fall to Michigan State, they will have to anxiously await selection Sunday and hope most of the favorites win their respective conference tournaments. If Ohio State can win their first Big Ten tournament game, that would make three straight against ranked opponents and should secure their place in the dance.

Two Dark Horses

Minnesota has quietly racked up 18 wins under Tubby Smith in his first year with the program, including a double digit offing of the aforementioned Ohio State less than two weeks ago. They get lucky with a Thursday night game against Northwestern, a team that sports a 1-17 conference record. In game two they get a third chance at Indiana, a team they've played tight, and that has been reeling of late. If they can get to the semifinals, all bets are off, and Tubby time takes over.

Penn State has less conference wins than Minnesota, but the Nittany Lions have tucked a couple of very Impressive W's under their belt. Victories against Indiana and Michigan State will be enough to make this team believe they can beat anyone. They start off against Illinois, and then move to a big match up vs. Purdue. If they win that game they get a chance to beat Indiana again (unless Minnesota pulls off the upset), and then they would be off to the finals, where anything could happen.

Games to Watch

Michigan State vs. Ohio State

Ohio State is coming off a victory over the Spartans and is playing for its tournament life. Michigan State will have revenge on the mind and be looking to bolster its NCAA tournament seeding.

Indiana vs. Minnesota

Yes, I'm positive it will be Minnesota. Watch to see how Indiana reacts to losing 2 of its final 3. If the Hoosiers come out strong, it could rejuvenate the team and help their tournament seeding. I expect this game to come down to the final minutes, though. Do the Gophers have what it takes to make a run at the Big Ten Championship?

Wisconsin vs. Ohio State/Michigan State

Bo Ryan consistently puts a great squad on the court. Whichever team Bucky Badger ends up facing, it will be a great game and produce the favorite to win the tournament. Bo Ryan continues to show he is one of the best coaches in the game. The team facing the Badgers has the chance to solidify their seeding and build confidence going into the NCAA tournament.

Players to Watch

Wisconsin: Brian Butch. He is a poor man's Tyler Hansbrough. His numbers are modest, but strong enough to lead the Badgers in PPG and Rebounds. More Importantly, the senior is the heart of the team.

Purdue: Robbie Hummel. The best player on the team. Easy. He leads the Boilermakers in Boards, and is 2^nd in PPG and APG. The Freshman has ramped up his game of late and is firing on all cylinders entering the tourney.

Indiana: Eric Gordon and D.J. White. It is impossible to pick just one. D.J. White is the Big Ten player of the year and a monster in the paint, leading the Big Ten in rebounds. Eric Gordon is the Big Ten freshman of the year and one of the best talents in the nation, though he does have a tendency of getting into foul trouble. If Gordon plays smart, this Indiana team has the ability to rise above the controversy and make a run at the Big Ten and NCAA championship. Gordon and White are also number 1 and 3 in the Big Ten in scoring, respectively.

Michigan State: Drew Neitzel. Neitzel is the spark plug of the team. He has been money from downtown all year, and the senior has proven to be a difference maker in more than one game this year.

Ohio State: Jamar Butler. Butler is one of the better players in the entire conference. At 6.0 assists per game, he averages 1.6 more than the nearest Big Ten competitor. He is also 7^th in the conference in scoring. It is rare to see a player that is so good at distributing the ball and is also able to put the ball in the hole. If Butler plays well, Ohio State will go deep.

Minnesota: Blake Hoffarber. Not the best player on the team by any stretch of the imagination, but has the ability to drain shots all day. Even from his back. Hoffarber is shooting over 44 percent from downtown this year, and Minnesota will need him to get hot if they want to make a run in the tourney.

Penn State: Geary Claxton. My favorite name in the tourney. He has game too. Second in the Big Ten in scoring and rebounding, with over 2 assists per game to boot. Claxton can flat out play. He has the ability to put the Nittany Lions on his shoulders and take them deep in the tourney.

Iowa: Cyrus Tate. Tate makes 67.5 percent of his shots, but only takes about 4 a game. If Iowa wants to do anything in the tourney, I believe they need to get Tate more minutes and get him the ball under the basket.

Michigan: DeShawn Sims. Sims leads the team in rebounds, and is second in scoring. When Sims goes off, the Wolverines do well. In the three games Sims has put up 22 or more points this year, Michigan has come out on top.

Illinois: Shaun Pruitt. A lone bright spot on a team that has few. Pruitt leads the team in PPG and rebounds.

Northwestern: Nick Fruendt. You want find him on the roster. He is the Wildcats top recruit for next season. If you want anything positive to look at in regards to Northwestern Basketball, Fruendt is the best person to look at.

Prediction

It's no fun, and it is predictable, but Wisconsin is playing a level above anyone else in the conference. Look for them to roll over the competition.

Long Shot! Long Shot!

Since everybody always wants a long shot, I'll pick one. If we played this tournament 100 times, this team might get to the finals once. Minnesota hasn't done anything against good teams all year, but Tubby Smith hasn't missed the NCAA tournament in the last 14 years. If any team is going to come out of nowhere to win this thing, I'm putting my money on Tubby Smith's team.