2008 Election Battleground Previews: Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is a state that one could say has toyed with the republican party in the last few years. Republicans constantly believe that they can pull out a victory in the state, but they consistently come up tantalizingly short. The state is unique in that it has democratic bastions on all four of its corners, and basically everything in between is pretty strongly republican. The McCain campaign has invested a lot of time and money into Pennsylvania, but can it really turn this state red?

Pennsylvania Preview: Recent Election Results

In 2004 John Kerry defeated George Bush by exactly 2.5% in Pennsylvania. This compares to a Bush victory in the national popular vote of 2.4%. Pennsylvania was about 5% more democratic than the rest of the nation as a whole. In 2000 Al Gore defeated George Bush by about 4.2% and Ralph Nader pulled in a little over 2% of the vote in the state. It seems that Pennsylvania is staying relatively even on a relative basis, not really trending in either direction, but still slightly more democratic than the nation as a whole.

Pennsylvania Preview: Key Geographical Areas

Almost all the political experts point to the Philadelphia suburbs as an absolutely crucial area in this state. Philadelphia has a large population in its suburbs and they are typically made up of lots of swing voters. In the suburban Philadelphia region most of the counties went to either Kerry or Bush by less than 5%, so they are clearly evenly split. Also watch Allegheny County and the Pittsburgh area because this is an area where Hillary Clinton was very popular and Barack Obama has been working very hard to win her supporters.

Pennsylvania Preview: Recent Polls

In recent days the polls in Pennsylvania have moved decisively in Barack Obama. This is largely due to the economic crisis and the overall national numbers moving strongly in his direction. The RealClearPolitics average now shows Obama with a lead of 7.6%. One of the polls included in this has Obama with a lead of 15%, which seems like an outlier. It is probably reasonable to assume that Obama leads here by at least 5 or 6 points right now.

Pennsylvania Preview: Advantage

In an even popular vote on a national scale I would expect Barack Obama to win the electoral votes of Pennsylvania narrowly. Philadelphia will likely bring tremendous margins that John McCain will be unable to overcome. The McCain campaign will keep trying here because it has invested far too much to give up, but it will likely fall short unless something changes drastically in the next five weeks.