2008 Electoral Map Predictions

After the GOP convention in early September, much was made of the momentum generated by Sen. John McCain's selection of Gov. Sarah Palin.

But most positive change was witnessed in national polling, a faulty exercise serving only to spark panic or enthusiasm. Unless voter shifts are noticed on the state level, pinning hopes to national polls is a foolhardy struggle, mostly because it doesn't necessarily reflect state movements accurately.

But once again, a candidate -- this time it's Sen. Barack Obama -- has surged in national polls in late September.

Is it making a difference on the 2008 electoral map, though?

One way to crunch the numbers is to size-up each candidate against his 2004 predecessor, especially when margins are below 5 percent. This isn't, of course, the only analysis. The biggest hole in this armchair methodology is that 2004 isn't 2008 and the candidates aren't the same people.

Nevertheless, what follows is a John McCain vs. George Bush and Barack Obama vs. John Kerry analysis.

In other words, how is your 2008 favorite faring against the 2004 model?

Not well, if you're the GOP, as you'll see below.

2008 Electoral Map Predictions: 2008 vs. 2004

In most 2008 toss-up or leaning states that President Bush won in 2004, McCain is either trailing Bush's eventual margin of victory or is losing to Obama.

According to RealClearPolitics.com, an aggregation of polls on Oct. 1 shows McCain still beating Obama in the following toss-up/leaning states. However, he is "losing" to Bush from 2004:

* Nevada (a 1.7 percent lead for McCain compared to a 2.6 win for Bush)

* Indiana (2.4 to 20.7)

* Missouri (3.2 to 7.2)

On Oct. 1, RCP had no data on West Virginia, although it considers it a McCain leaner on the 2008 electoral map.

2008 Electoral Map Predictions: Bad News for the GOP?

Even worse for McCain, he trails Obama in these toss-up/leaning states Bush won:

* Florida (a 1.4 percent lead for Obama compared to a 5.0 win for Bush)

* Ohio (2.0 to 2.1)

* North Carolina (0.7 to 12.4)

* Virginia (3.0 to 8.2)

* Colorado (5.0 to 4.7)

* New Mexico (6.0 to 0.7)

And in Iowa, a 2004 Bush state, Obama has a solid lead.

* Iowa (a 9.2 percent Obama lead compared to a 0.7 Bush win)

2008 Electoral Map Predictions: Let's Be Fair Now

Yes, Obama illustrates weaknesses in some states Kerry won in 2004.

Obama does not trail McCain in any state Kerry won, but here are some toss-up/leaning races in which he isn't faring as well as Kerry:

* Washington (a 6.0 percent Obama lead compared to an 8.2 Kerry win)

* Maine (7.6 to 9.0)

There is one Obama-Kerry tie in a toss-up/leaning state. As of Oct. 1, Obama leads in New Hampshire by 1.3 percent, the same margin of victory Kerry claimed.

2008 Electoral Map Predictions: Some Whatnots and Etceteras

* According to RCP's slate of all states with data on Oct. 1, McCain is trailing Bush's victories in 16 states, including seven states finding Obama with a lead. McCain is besting President Bush's margin of victory in five states -- Arizona, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee and Alabama.

* In other words, Bush is beating McCain 16-5. Those five McCain victories are all solid states. He is not improving on Bush's wins in any toss-up/leaning races. On the other hand, Obama's overall record vs. Kerry is 15-4-1. In toss-up/leaning states, that record is 10-2-1.

* Even more telling on the 2008 electoral map is Obama's lead over Bush. He's beating Bush 7-0, which doesn't bode well for McCain, considering he's already losing to Bush.

The big idea strung throughout these numbers is this: Obama is doing better than Kerry. McCain is doing worse than Bush. In some cases, Obama is doing better than Bush.

Based on this Oct. 1 analysis, here are some predictions:

2008 Electoral Map Predictions: What's likely to happen?

It will come down to three states.

Let's look at the Obama campaign's mid-September swing state collection: Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and New Hampshire.

McCain's leads have grown in Montana and North Dakota in September. They're out.

Obama's long-standing on-the-ground efforts and network in Iowa yank it out of McCain's 2008 electoral map. Bush won it in 2004, but McCain has never really performed well there. Remember that it's a now-solid Obama state that Bush won.

Every four years, Missouri boasts its solid reputation as the bellweather state, voting with the winner since 1956. Before that, the streak stretched back to 1904. Obama should hope he bucks that trend because this state is leaning McCain.

The Obama camp might have sweat September poll numbers in the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But as the economy's woes freight train into autumn as Issue No. 1, McCain will continue to trail there - even if it's by the slimmest of numbers.

Checking back on the campaign's salad days, we see that McCain hasn't led an aggregation of RCP polls in Pennsylvania since April 13, since June 23 in Michigan and he has never led in Wisconsin.

Georgia was a state Obama had hoped would be close on the 2008 electoral map. But since the Palin pick and the convention, McCain has solidified his lead.

2008 Electoral Map Predictions: States to Watch

So, what three states will decide the election? Look to the seven in which Bush won but Obama leads. Whether McCain can recover there will be telling. Pick three from the following: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico.

Toss in New Hampshire, too, because it's the closest Kerry state where Obama could fall behind.

Sources:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/election_2008/electoral_count.html#previous_changes
http://www.stlbeacon.org/issues_politics/election_analysis/missouri_s_bellwether_is_cracked