2008 Hurricane Season: Atlantic Predictions
The Colorado State University team also anticipates an above average probability of a major hurricane striking the United States in 2008. This is contrary to the last couple years which have been relatively quiet in the Atlantic Basin in terms of storms making landfall along the Eastern seaboard or along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. This year could improve the drought conditions currently affecting the Southeastern United States. Florida has experienced a vast rainfall deficit in the past two years from the lack of tropical systems impacting the state. Lake Okeechobee in South Florida, which supplies approximately five million people with drinking water, is currently experiencing a rain-fall deficit in excess of 25 inches.
This scenario of course, is based upon these predictions actually taking place as forecast, which as well known, is just their best "educated guess" based upon the scientific models which have been compiled over the last several months. It's entirely impossible to accurately predict the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season this early in the year; this is just an overall consensus of activity for the year.
Stepping away from the superfluous yet intriguing information and analyzing the actual numbers, the April extended-forecast includes fifteen named storms, eight hurricanes, and four intense or major hurricanes in 2008. This year's extended-range April forecast is compiled from a newly developed statistical technique which is based upon the tropical cyclone data of the past 58 years (1950-2007). These numbers are an increase from the predictions the team released in December 07' which predicted thirteen named storms, seven hurricanes, with three being intense.
The 2007 Atlantic Basin hurricane season produced the first storm of the season on May 9th with subtropical storm Andrea forming 150 miles Northeast of Daytona Beach, Florida. Andrea was the first pre-season storm to develop since the 2003 hurricane season which produced its first cyclone in April. The final storm to form last year was outside the normal Atlantic hurricane season and occurred on December 11th when Tropical Storm Olga developed near the Northern Lesser Antilles.
All together, 2007 produced 15 named storms, with September tying the record for storms in a month with a total of 8 storms forming in the Atlantic Basin. Last year, the Colorado State University team released their April extended-forecast report which predicted an active season with a total of 17 named storms, with nine of these becoming hurricanes, including five developing into major hurricanes. The actual numbers for the 2007 hurricane season included 15 named storms, six hurricanes, with two intensifying into major hurricanes.
Sources:
http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2008/april2008/apr2008.pdf
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Top_News/2008/03/05/florida_drought_persists_despite_rainfall/4944/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Atlantic_hurricane_season
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_M._Gray
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/04/070403172305.htm
Published by Christopher Reed
Christopher Reed is a 25 year old located in Ocala, Fl. He holds a degree in multimedia technologies and has a passion for graphic design, writing, videography, and more. View profile
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9 Comments
Post a CommentYou make a very valid argument bobby, one which I agree with for the most part. I'm still not convinced global warming is a dire threat that man has created, for all we know it could just be a warming cycle the earth is going through. Back on topic, I'm glad to see Hurricane Bertha heading away from the east coast of the United States. Last week the local meterologist in Orlando had predicted a 30% chance the storm kept a westward track and headed towards the Carolinas. I feel sorry for the people in Bermuda as it seems to have set it's sights on them. One good thing for the people of Bermuda is it weakened quite a bit from it's high point. I can't remember what the maximum winds reached but I know I read at least 110 miles per hour, which would of been extremely devastating. One more interesting note, the last time we had a major hurricane this early in the season was the year Hurricane Katrina hit, I hope this season doesn't shape up like that one.
If It gets any worse in global warming it,s us that will be hurt.Our earth has been here for billions of years,and always repairs itself,but we as humans living here can not,and we are destroying our world.The people who can do something about this, don,t seem to care,and those people are the politicians,the one,s we voted in office.We are always being told that they are going to fight and do something about this but we never see it.I for one pray that these people will do something and do it soon,so that my grandchildren can have a chance to enjoy life as did I and my parents before me.I,m only one but 1+1+1+1 and so on add up and maybe we will be able to open those people,s eye,s and just have a chance to get it done.God Bless All
i hope the gulf don't get anything....i live in on the mississippi gulf coast, we are still badly handicapped from katrina. we can't handle anything else right now. :)
Hopefully this year won't bring any disasters!
Hoping for a quiet season. AC Law
Thank you everyone for your replies! Sherry - I too fear the gulf coast may get it bad this year. I used to live in the Florida panhandle but i live in Central Florida currently. When I stayed in the panhandle we lived on an island which wasn't the best place to be during hurricane season, now we live about 20 minutes from the gulf of mexico. Hopefully this hurricane season will be a dull boring one. Anyone want to make their own predictions? ;)
with the way we have been having tornados and really warm teps i fear the gulf coast may get hit hard this hurricane season. i dread the beginning of june and cant wait till the end of nov every year.
:-):-)
I've moved away from the coast but I'm still hoping we have a quiet season.