2008 Men's Australian Open Odds

Since I have already gone out on a limb and proclaimed that 2008 will be the first season that World No.1 Roger Federer does not win the three grand slam titles that he has won in each of the past two seasons, the Australian Open, Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, I guess this is the tournament I expect Federer to finally fall in since I genuinely can't see him losing either, Wimbledon or the U.S. Open anytime soon.

With that in mind, while it would be foolish to count the indomitable Federer out of a tournament he has won four years running, I sincerely believe that, at least two players have legitimate shots at actually beating Federer, while another one or two lurk on the fringes as dark horses that could luck up into a grand slam title should they get either momentum or a ton of luck on their respective side during the tournament, preferably, both.

Here is a look at the Australian Open winners dating back to 2000, followed by my analysis on which player I believe will actually win the 2008 Australian Open.

Australian Open Winners
2007: Roger Federer
2006: Roger Federer
2005: Marat Safin
2004: Roger Federer
2003: Andre Agassi
2002: Thomas Johansson
2001: Andre Agassi
2000: Andre Agassi

Odds to Win the 2008 Australian Open

Roger Federer -200

Novak Djokovic +550

Rafael Nadal +650

David Nalbandian +900

Andrew Murray +2000

Andy Roddick +2000

Nikolay Davydenko +4000

Mario Ancic +4000

Richard Gasquet +4000

Marcos Baghdatis +4000

Lleyton Hewitt +4000

Fernando Gonzalez +3500

Tomas Berdych +6500

James Blake +6500

Tommy Haas +8000

Mikhail Youzhny +10000

David Ferrer +2000

Ivo Karlovic +9000

Guillermo Canas +10000

Ivan Ljubicic +10000

Tommy Robredo +12500

Juan Martin Del Potro +12500

Fernando Verdasco +15000

Dmitry Tursunov +15000

Analysis: I'm going to come out and say it right now - I think World No. 3 Novak Djokovic - is going to cost Roger Federer at least one Grand Slam title in 2008.

If you saw Djokovic succumb to Federer after competing valiantly in a thrilling match in the finals of last year's U.S. Open, not to mention, witnessed the young Serbian's impressive development that he showed during the 2007 season, you can easily arrive at the same conclusion - that Djokovic is ready for a Grand Slam breakthrough in 2008.

The young Serbian won five ATP titles in 2007 and reached the finals at the ATP Masteries at Indian Wells as well as the U.S. Open Finals where he lost to Federer, 7-6 (4), 7-6 (2), 6-4 in an absolute thriller in his first Grand Slam finals appearance.

Djokovic also went a solid 19-4 in Grand Slam play, losing only to Federer and Rafael Nadal, the world's No.1 and 2 players. Djokovic's 43 hard court wins were just one less than the leader, Federer managed, and I'm going on record right now to say that Djokovic wins his first career slam title in 2008 at the Australian Open.

Dark horse: My dark horse pick to win it all is ... Andy Roddick. Okay, once you pick yourself up off the floor, remember, Roddick has put in some serious work with veteran Hall of Famer, Jimmy Connors the last 14 months and while it hasn't produced a grand slam title, Roddick has clearly improved his overall game, specifically attacking the net more. Who knows, maybe some of coach 'Jimbo's' legendary hustle and shot-making ability will rub off on Roddick someday soon.

The again - maybe not.