2008 NBA Playoffs Preview: New Orleans Hornets Vs. Dallas Mavericks

The 2008 NBA Western Conference Playoffs are unique in recent league history in that every team is so evenly matched that no seed is safe from an upset.

Such is the case with the first round match-up of the #2 seed New Orleans Hornets and the #7 seed Dallas Mavericks. New Orleans is coming off of their best season ever, posting a team record for wins with 56 behind the outstanding play of MVP candidate Chris Paul. Their recent play has been less than stellar, as they lost three of their final five games, including a 111-98 loss to the Mavericks in the regular season finale. The teams split the season series 2-2.

The Mavericks, despite their 51 wins, consider the regular season a disappointment, only two years removed from being the favorite in the NBA Finals. Their loss to the Heat was the first of several instances where the Mavericks have woefully underachieved, including losing in the first round of last year's playoffs to Golden State and the inability of newly-acquired Jason Kidd to mesh with the offense.

The key to the Hornets' success is, of course, the play of Chris Paul. New Orleans' potent offense relies on Paul either carrying the bulk of the scoring or getting power forward David West some open looks. If either has a bad shooting night, that spells bad news for the Hornets, as they rely more on outscoring their opponents than playing stifling defense. West averages nearly 20 points a game, while Paul averages 21. Against the Mavs, Paul does even better. According to ESPN.com, Paul averaged nearly 27 points in the four games this season against Dallas. Peja Stojakovic is still a threat at the shooting forward position, although his scoring chances have diminished thanks to Paul and West. He can easily pick up the offensive slack if the others have an off night.

For the Mavericks, it's all about the Dirk. Nowitzki is the leading scorer and sets the tone for the rest of the team. When he went down with a high ankle sprain in March, the Mavericks went 7-8 for the month. Teams have learned that Nowitzki struggles when he is double teamed, so look for West and center Tyson Chandler to jump on him on the perimeter, as they did in the season finale, in hopes of throwing him off of his game. Although the strategy did limit Dirk, it opened up opportunities for other players, including Jason Terry and Josh Howard. Terry actually leads Mavs scorers in Hornets games this season.

For the Hornets to win the series, Paul must come through big, while the defense must limit inside scoring, especially Dirk. For the Mavs to win, they must come through on defense and hope their bench, including the return of the injured Jerry Stackhouse, provides enough spark to pull away in the fourth quarter, which was their key to winning this season. Jason Kidd doesn't have to stop Paul, but he must limit his ability to move the ball.

The Hornets may be the second seed, but in the NBA, it's always about how you are playing today. The Mavs' convincing win in the season finale, despite a poor shooting performance by Dirk Nowitzki, is not good news for the Hornets. While hot shooting may win New Orleans them the series, Dallas' deep bench could prove too much for New Orleans to handle. Prediction: Mavs win in six games.

Stats Source: ESPN.com: NBA Playoffs 2008, Hornets vs. Mavericks. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2008/series?series=dalnor