On Saturday, the University of North Carolina will take on Louisville for the right to advance to the Final Four. This match up will feature the national Player of the Year, Tyler Hansbrough, against the tough defensive play of the Cardinals. Hansbrough, who averaged 23 points and 10.5 per game in the regular season, will have his hands full as they will be able to advance if Hansbrough continues with the same level of production.
The Tar Heels are not as deep as past teams and could be in trouble against an extremely athletic team who primarily uses a three pronged pressure package to cause turnovers. The Tar Heels will constantly attempt to break the pressure of the Cardinals and push their opponents back on the heels. Ty Lawson will provide a needed spark for the Tar Heels whether he starts or comes off the bench. The speed and quickness possessed by Lawson will be key if he wants to penetrate the tough Cardinals' defense.
For the Cardinals to have a chance in this match, they will need to pounce upon any mistakes the Tar Heels make and have a high success rate from three point range. Pitino will use a variety of pressure defenses against the Tar Heels to keep their offensive rhythm off balance. Senior David Padgett will have the job of guarding Hansbrough and challenge him on the other end from the perimeter. Ideally the Cardinals will want to force the Tar Heels into long range shots, which could translate into long rebounds and fast break opportunities.
The Cardinals do not have a dominate scoring threat, but have four players who average more than ten points per game during the regular season. One area of concern for the Cardinals is the 65.6% free throw percentage they compiled during the regular season. This weakness could be there downfall if the game is close at the end.
This game will be a contrast of style and will make it an exciting contest. Look for Hansbrough's game to be disrupted by the defensive schemes of the Cardinals. Despite this, the Tar Heels will come away with a win in a close, hard fought match-up.
Midwest Region
All eyes will be on this game, where Kansas will meet upstart Davidson, a # 1 seed versus a # 10 seed. This game has the makings to be a classic or a complete flop. The key to the Jayhawks success will be how they handle Stephen Curry. It has become apparent teams are able to stop him. But if they are able to slow him, then the Jayhawks will have a very good chance of winning the game. The Jayhawks are a nightmare for their opponents since they possess weapons on the inside, outside, and every other spot on the court. During the regular season, no Kansas player scored more than 25 points in a game, though they have seven players on the team who average anywhere from 7.3 to 13.5 points per game.
On any given night, there are a handful of players who can lead the team in scoring. To keep the offense flowing, the Jayhawks rely upon point guard Sherron Collins. Brandon Rush is one of the most prominent players in college basketball. Though he is not a prolific scorer, he is capable of lighting up the scoreboard if his mid range shot finds the bottom of the net. Even though the Jayhawks do not utilize a true center, they are still able to deal with size. The Jayhawks will need to rely upon their athleticism and balance to win this game over Davidson.
If you did not know who Stephen Curry was before the tournament, you most certainly do now. The sophomore Curry has scored 103 points through the first three rounds of the tournament. Even when his shots are not finding the net, Curry will keep firing until he starts connecting again. Curry is the main reason Davidson has survived this far into the tournament and will need to keep this up if Davidson is going to advance to the Final Four. No one else on the Davidson Wildcats is averaging more than 12.5 points per game. Point guard Jason Richards is at times over looked by the fans and media, but not by his opponents, he led the nation with 8.0 assists per game. Richards excels when setting up the tempo of the Wildcats offense and directing the offense down the court.
The Wildcats pesky defense may cause problems for Kansas and throw them off their game. The one area where the Wildcats are hurting is their bench play. Since they get little from the lack of depth, the Wildcats will need to rely heavily upon their starters. The Davidson Wildcats have shown that solid performances by your backcourt will help your team advance in the tournament. In order for the Wildcats to come away with a win, they will need to find a way to keep their own inside the paint and to find a way to get their bench involved in the scoring. This game should be close by the time the buzzer sounds and Kansas will do everything to make sure Curry does not have the ball in his hands. Despite the Cinderella story for the Wildcats, Kansas should will able to contain them and place themselves in the Final Four.
South Region
This afternoon in Houston, the # 1 seeded Memphis Tigers will face the # 2 seeded Texas Longhorns. The winner will advance to the Final Four, while the loser will question whether their 2007-2008 season was a failure. The team under the most pressure to win is Memphis. The Tigers need to prove they belong in the tournament and are not just a team who can have success in the regular season. Over the last three years, the Tigers have won 102 games though they have zero national championships. In the last two years, Memphis lost in the regional finals, once to UCLA and then to Ohio State. The player who will need to make his presence felt is point guard Derrick Rose. In 37 games this season, he has average 14.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game. If the game is close, look for the ball to be in his hands.
Memphis has done a great job of protecting the ball as they have only committed 26 turnovers in the 3 tournament games. This is the lowest turnover ratio in the tournament. Next closest is Texas, who committed 29 turnovers. For the Tigers to have a solid chance of winning, they need to maintain the torrid shooting streak. In four of the last six games, the Tigers have average more than 50% from the field. The only time the Tigers shot below 40% were when they were handed a loss by the Tennessee Volunteers.
Texas's success in the 2007-2008 season was due to the emergence of D.J. Augustin. Augustin took center stage when Kevin Durant left for the NBA after last year. Though he does turn over the ball on a regular basis, he does find a way to atone for his mistakes. He led the team in scoring in assists during the regular season and plays an integral part in the success of the Longhorns. Augustin, along with A.J. Abrams and Damion Jones are expected to log a log of minutes in the contest. This heavy workload could be a concern for the Longhorns who will need to stay sharp if they want to contain the Tigers' Rose.
For the Longhorns to come away, they need to rely upon their main strength, the backcourt. Abrams will shoot often and when he is on the mark, can be rated among the best. If the pair goes cold though, so does the team. The Tigers will look to keep both men off their game and keep their field goal percentage at 40% or lower. If this happens, this will be a long game for Longhorns fans. If the game is in the clutch, Augustin will have the ball in his hands and has no problem taking the shot.
This should be an exciting game to watch from both ends. If the teams have their 'A' game, look for this to be a high scoring close contest. Despite the tremendous backcourt for the Longhorns, expect the Tigers to come out on top when it is all said and done. The Tigers will be the three # 1 seed to advance to the Final Four.
West Region
The UCLA Bruins will match up against the Xavier Musketeers to determine who represents the West region in the Final Four. The Bruins are riding a 13 game winning streak as they attempted to return to the Final Four for the third straight season. Good thing Bruins fans do not suffer from a week stomach because five of those wins have been by three points or less. In order for the Bruins to be successful, they must play Ben Howland's trademark, high intensity defense and properly execute their offensive scheme. The main man in UCLA is freshman, Kevin Love, who has scored 68 points and 34 rebounds in the first three games of the tournament. He will be matched up with Josh Duncan who is athletic and causes trouble for those defending him. Love will look to take away Duncan's ability to penetrate and keep tight defense on him when he pulls up to shoot. It is interesting to note that Love has not fouled out from a game this entire season.
The best pure shooter on the team, Arron Afflalo, was around during the previous Final Four appearances. But this time, there are several other players who are willing and able to take the clutch shot. The Bruins are balanced offensively and run an efficient fast break offense will put points on the board quickly. The biggest weakness this team will face is themselves. The Bruins have been to the Elite Eight 21 times in their history and with the success in recent year, they will need to be properly motivated in this match up. If they look past the Musketeers and assume they will be in the Final Four, Xavier might be able to sneak away with a win.
If Xavier wants to win this game and advance to the Final Four, they must find away to neutralize Kevin Love who is a nightmare to defend. This is a tough task indeed since he has found his stroke 17 feet away from the rim. This trip to the Elite Eight is the second time in five years under head coach Sean Miller. If you do not know much about the Musketeers, know this, they do match up well against the Bruins at every point on the floor. In the paint, they have Josh Duncan and Derrick Brown to bang around with Love and for the perimeter; the Musketeers have Stanley Burrel to use his defensive prowess to suffocate the Bruins guards.
Xavier has the depth advantage over the Bruins, who will have their starters' average 30 minutes. The Musketeers spread the ball around and scoring is not a problem. Five players scored in double figures during the regular season and four of them shot better than 40 percent from 3 point range. If Xavier can keep the Bruins fewer than 70 points in the game, they should have success. During the season, they were 22-1 when their opponents did not score more than 70. The one concern for the Musketeers is the lack of a player to take the clutch shot. No one on the team has shown the desire and ability to take the big shot when needed.
Xavier's season will come to an end on Saturday as the Bruins will advance to the Final Four. Look for Love to show the nation why he is one of the best players in college basketball. Love is going to make use of this tournament to showcase his talents for the upcoming NBA draft.
Published by JM Van Horn
I have spent the last several years writing for various outlets, from newspaper print to online sports sites. Though I may not be right all the time, I enjoy sharing my thoughts on a variety of subjects for... View profile
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