2008 NFC Championship Game: New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

When these two teams met up in Week 2 of the 2007 season, no one could even dream that eighteen weeks later they would square-off for the right to play in the 2008 Super Bowl. Last weekend the New York Giants pulled off a major upset when they defeated the Dallas Cowboys. A day earlier, Brett Favre led the Green Bay Packers to an easy victory over the Seattle Seahawks. On Sunday these two improbable teams will face-off on the "frozen tundra" of Lambeau Field.

Green Bay won their game rather impressively. The Packers overcame a 14-0 Seattle lead by controlling the flow of the game. The Packers new found running game grinded down the Seattle defense and the clock, scoring on six straight possessions to win going away. The underrated Packer offensive line opened huge holes all day long, allowing Ryan Grant to run freely into the Seattle secondary. Grant ran for 201 yards against a very good Seahawk defense and when the Packers weren't marching down the field with their ground game, Brett Favre picked apart the Seattle defense with a mixture of short slants and mid-range passes.

The extended Green Bay drives kept the tired Seattle defense on the field and forced the Seahawk offense to watch from the sidelines. The Seahawk offense isn't built to mount large comebacks. Forced to abandon their game plan, the Seattle offense was out of sync and floundered badly. In all, the Packers game plan worked to perfection and the game was all but over mid-way through the third quarter.

The New York Giants struggled with the Dallas Cowboys running game in the first half. They made adjustments to shut down Marion Barber and put the ball in Tony Romo's hands. Considering the injuries to the decimated defensive secondary of the Giants, it was a daring move.

The Giants were able to stay with the Cowboys in the second half. With a mixture of runs and short passes, the Giants were able to slow down the Cowboys pass rush just enough to give Eli Manning the time he needed to make key 2nd and long and 3rd and long completions. The Giants took the lead late in the game and it was a lead they held when the clock read 00:00.

When these two squads matched-up in Week 2, the Green Bay Packers struggled mightily with their running game. They went to the air in the second half and beat the hapless Giants, in NJ, 35-13. The Giants defensive line was in shambles and the secondary had little chance of covering the Packers in their spread offense.

This Sunday, the Giants will try to win another playoff game on the road. Unfortunately for New York, it won't be as easy as in sunny Tampa Bay or the climate-controlled stadium in Dallas. With kick-off scheduled for 6:30 EST, the Giants will most likely face single-digit temperatures, a frozen grass surface and unfriendly winds. As good as New York has played on the road, it's hard to fathom they can perform and succeed under these conditions. The Giants do play in the windy Giants Stadium, but in recent years the temperatures rarely dip into the low 20s, much less single digits. Playing in snowy conditions will also hamper the Giants timing in their passing game.

The defense will once again, be hard pressed to cover the Packers when they spread the offense out. The Packers have 4 or 5 wide receivers with good speed and any one of them can burn the Giants already thin secondary. Green Bay didn't have any semblance of a running attack when they traveled to Giant's Stadium in September. The Packers running game has become potent in the second half of the season and the Packers will look to control this game on the ground. Favre will keep the chains moving with a variety of short passes- screens to the running backs and short slants to numerous receivers. To keep the defense honest, Favre will mix it up with the occasional deep post. In all, it's a tall order for the Giants defense to keep the clamps on the Packers for much of the game. In reality, the Cowboys passing game was out-of sync, with the late season injuries to Owens and Glenn. Romo didn't have the needed time to work the passing game with the two veteran receivers and that helped out the banged-up Giant's secondary. No such luck with the potent Packer passing game this week.

The Giants will once again try to keep the ball out of Eli Manning's hands as much as possible and establish a running game. This is a must for the Giants to be successful. Their only chance to win will be to keep Brett Favre on the sidelines. Manning has played very well his two playoff games this year. With zero turnovers, Manning has put together enough drives and put enough points on the board to stay in games early, while keeping the Giants defense fresh. If Manning can perform in the frigid cold and possible snow, this game could stay close.

For the Giants to have a chance, the offensive line will need to open holes for 260+ pound running back Brandon Jacobs. Jacobs ran well against the Cowboys, grinding out important yards and along with Ahmad Bradshaw the pair bring a solid 1-2 punch to the offense. Like the Giants, the Packers are very good at stopping the run (especially at home) and they have a deep defense in their front 7, which allows them to rotate fresh players in and out of the game. In Green Bay's favor is their top-notch quality cover backs in Charles Woodson and Al Harris. They will go one on one with the Giants wideouts and afford the Packer defense an extra player to slow down the New York running game. Plaxico Burress is the top receiver for NY. Burress isn't much of a deep threat, but does have a size advantage over the Packers cornerbacks, which will prove helpful when the Giants are in the red-zone.

Much like Seattle last week, the Giants are not a team built to come back from large deficits. The Giants are playing at the top of their game, yet were one play away from losing to the Cowboys (who were clearly not near their best) With an extra week off, Green Bay didn't miss a beat last week and cruised in the 2nd half, enabling the Pack to rest a few players.

With both squads playing near or at the top of their game, it appears the game will breakdown like this-
The Giants have question marks in their defensive secondary. If they can't get these players on the field for Sunday's game, the Packers will exploit the defense by going with 4 and 5 wide receiver sets.
The Giants are playing their 3rd road playoff game. They did little offensively once they had the lead and left it on their defense to hold off the Cowboys (who were out of sync in the passing game) Dallas did march down the field, only to be intercepted in the end zone.
The confines of Lambeau field will not prove friendly to the visitors.
Both defenses are very good, as are the kicking games. It will come down to the offenses. Brett Favre vs Eli Manning... in Favre's backyard. Manning continues to be held in check by the coaching staff, still short arms the ball and misses too many open receivers. In Sunday's game he'll need to play perfect. In this weekend's game I think perhaps if the "other" Manning was in a Giant's uniform they might win. But this Sunday, Brett Favre will lead his Packers to yet another Super Bowl.
Green Bay by 7+ over the New York Giants.