2008 NFL Week 5, Bears Line: Bears Will Not Cover and Take the Under

This week, we predict the the straight up outcome of the Chicago Bears-Detroit Lions game, whether the Bears will cover the point spread and a prediction on the over/under. So far this year on The Bears Line I'm 3-1 ATS and 2-2 on the over/under. Last week I picked the Eagles to cover and bet the under. At the time I made the pick the Eagles were 3 point favorites. By game time the Bears were a 3.5 point favorite. Either way I blew it. The Bears beat the Philedelphia Eagles last week with an incredible 4th quarter goal line stand against an Eagles team that played without All-Pro running back Brian Westbrook. I thought Westbrook would play. He didn't and I was wrong, and that made the difference. The Bears still have a losing year ahead of them. But they'll beat the Lions in Detroit on NFL Week 5.

The Detroit Lions are 3.5 point underdogs as of Oct 1. They're going to cover those points this coming Sunday.

Let's start with the Lions who are 0-3 in the NFC's weakest division. They have yet to cover the spread in those first 3 games. The Bears are 3-1 against the spread and playing well (for the Bears). The Lions finished last season with a 1-7 game record going 1-6 against the spread during that stretch. For their last 10 games they are 1-10 ATS. I'm going with the trend on this one. The Lions have scored only 59 points this season while giving up 113. The Lions are also 0-2 as underdogs ATS and 0-1 at home ATS.

In the injury department, for the Bears , DB Charles Tillman has a shoulder injury and is questionable for the Lions game. Defensive lineman Tommy Harris should play. WR Brandon Lloyd's knee injury puts him at questionable for the Lions game. The Bears don't have any super-stars or key players on the injured or qusetionable list. For the Lions, both QB drew Stanton and starting QB Jon Kitna are listed as probable.

On the spread, which is Detroit +3.5, Detroit will cover in this game. Over their last 19 meetings the underdog in those games is 19-3 against the spread. Also Chicago is 2-12 against teams with really bad defenses. Detroit has a really bad defense.

On the Over-Under, the Bears have been holding opponents to an average of 20 points a game. Four weeks into the season that average is a fairly good indicator of how the Bears defense is playing at this time. The Lions are averaging 19 point a game on offense this year and the Bears are scoring an average of 23 points a game on the road and 23.5 points overall. The Lions however, over the last the four homegames are a better ballclub at home both offenseively and defensely. They're giving up an average of 25 points a game and scoring an average of 22. The Bears away record over the last 6 games shows they've been scoring an average of 19 points over those 6 road games and giving up an average of 19 points. The Over/Under is 44.5. So I'm going with the under.

TAKE THE BEARS STRAIGHT UP
TAKE THE 3.5 POINTS AND THE LIONS ON THE SPREAD
TAKE THE UNDER ON THE OVER/UNDER BET.