2008 November General Election

2008 is going to be one for the political history books as one of the most explosive events ever to visit our democratic union. For the first time in American history an African-American and a woman have a real shot at not only being the Presidential nominee for a major political party, but they have a bona fide prospect of actually becoming the next President of the United States.

It may also go down in history as the year the Democratic Party blew their one chance to make these possibilities disappear. Not for the first time has this sort of thing happened in the Democratic Party, but this will be the first time they could let this big an opportunity slip through their collective fingers.

With all the polls and primaries and caucuses and speculations in full swing, here is the way I foresee the November Presidential General Election going down.

The Democrats
The Democratic National Convention is set to be held in Denver, CO from August 25^th to August 28^th. Unless someone can throw a wet blanket on some of the doings within the Democratic Party, contention, name calling and maybe even a fist fight live on television will mark this year's DNC. The once cool and collected Barack Obama has begun to sink to the level of his contentious competition simply in order to stem some of the vile negativity coming from the opponent's campaign. This at a time when the ground swell of support should be leading to his declaration of "how" he intends to make the sweeping changes he has been saying is needed in Washington in order for America to recapture its democratic grandeur and march forward into the future. Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, is blossoming into the true politico machine that has been the earmark of many a typical Washington big wig. Her campaign has taken potshot after potshot once her "mandate of the people" lead began diminishing. Instead of standing on either record or real strategy to implement the changes she is starting to talk about, she has allowed her loud mouthed ex-President of a husband dictate the tone of the recent race. And the Party leaders are being anything but leaders, standing on the sidelines quietly lamenting the disintegration of what began as a promising challenge to the Republican machine everyone was sure could be halted with the next Presidential election. Instead of taking a firm hand to insure the "politics as usual" ploys of the past are not repeated, since this has been the hallmark demand of a people tired of such shenanigans, they are conspicuously silent.

So, the Primaries and Caucuses will continue until June, with no clear decisive winner. Obama will have the most states and Clinton will have the biggest states. No one will have the 2025 total delegates needed to be declared the undisputed nominee for the Democratic Party before the Convention begins in August. Obama will believe he has the will of the people and Clinton will see it as her destiny to continue. Therefore, neither Obama nor Clinton will concede defeat. They will thus go into the Convention kicking and screaming. The Superdelegates will swing their support behind Clinton, with a few boisterous voices demanding they support Obama. The numbers will win out in the end and it will be Clinton who gets the Convention nod as the Democratic Presidential candidate.

Up until this time, the Party will be divisive and torn. The leadership will try to assert its sway and say it is time to rally behind the candidate. But the damage will be done. Since Obama would never support a Clinton Presidency, he will not be on a Clinton ticket as VP. Should the unbelievable happen and Obama be nominated, Clinton would never stoop to be the Vice President, feeling it was not her destiny to be second. And the voters will be sorely strained to come together. The independents and conservative Democrats that were mesmerized to get involved will either desert this sinking ship or be so disaffected as to not even bother voting. Either way, the Party's demise is all but certain. (The only miracle they can hope for would be a major gaff in the Republican Party.)

The Republicans
The Republican National Convention is to be held in Minneapolis - St. Paul, MN on September 1^st to the 4^th. McCain will undoubtedly be the big ticket name at this year's "no big surprises" convention. The only thing that will cause his nomination to falter, would be his choice of running mate. The thing that smells in the air is Romney. His sudden departure from the race half way through Super Tuesday and his just as sudden endorsement of John McCain makes me smell something rotten in Denmark. No one throws that kind of money into a campaign and walks away without expecting something in return. If what he is after is akin to a cabinet posting or an ambassadorship, then I would see and even favor McCain to go for it. But if, as I suspect, the VP job is what he is looking for, it could spells serious disaster for the momentum and party unity McCain has been working on these past few weeks. Let us all hope, for the Republican Party's sake, that McCain is looking at Huckabee, or someone similar (though Mike would be the perfect choice), to be his running mate.

In the meantime, McCain's nomination is all but assured and the Party will have plenty of time to build unity behind their candidate. Since the Democrats will be so busy with their own implosion, the Republican Party can spend its time solidifying their ranks and swaying the disaffected from their opponent's side.

As a side note, if Huckabee does get the VP nod, then he has an opportunity to re-shape the role of Vice President into a much more active and impacting one. And he could use this position to swing the country onto a more moral footing than it has been of late.

Overall Analysis
As long as McCain has someone on the ticket such as Huckabee that can act as a unifier of the sullen conservative masses, his should be an easy victory over the highly contentious and disorganizing effect of the Clinton and "whoever" ticket. If, however, McCain chooses someone who is either like Dick Cheney (who is seen as a war-mongering, money grubbing opportunist) or evaporates in the wind before his/her name is off the lips like Walter Mondale (who's entire biography could be written on two sides of a sheet of paper), then not even the disenfranchised Democratic spirit will keep Hillary out of the White House, albeit limpingly.