2008 US Senate Election Watch

The 2008 US Presidential Election is getting a lot of coverage from the media this year. It seems that the presidential race is the only thing being talked about in the media. All the talk in the media is about who is racist, sexist, who is took old to be president and other stupid issues like that. In the meantime, America does have other elections going on that the media refuses to cover. One of the races is the Senate.

Therefore, this article is going to be doing the job that the media refuses to do and cover the races. The research I did of the Senate Elections shows that the Democratic Party could have a big year. All signs would suggest that too. After all, we have a very unpopular Republican president, a very unpopular war, and now an economy that is sinking to the ground. All of those things will be blamed on the Republican Party, even though Democrats control things now in Congress. That means very big trouble for the Republicans.

The Senate races already show two locks for the Democrats; New Mexico and Virginia. In New Mexico, scandals have plagued Senator Pete Domenici (R-NM) and the leading candidate for the Republican nomination, Congressman Heather Wilson (R-NM). Both of them were involved in the "purge of the prosecutors" scandal where the president might have been firing prosecutors who didn't agree with his political views. That has damaged the Republicans really bad in New Mexico. A poll released in April shows Tom Udall (D-NM) who is running for the Senate leading Wilson 56-36%. As of now, I would say "bye bye" to the Republicans chances there. Of course anything can happen, but right now, the race is going blue.

As for Virginia, the Republicans didn't do anything illegally wrong. The only thing the Republicans did poor was the war, the economy, and every other problem we face now. That has begun the way of tilting Virginia blue. Since 2004's massacre of Democrats there, we seen a Democratic governor and Senator elected. The Democratic candidate for the Senate seat there will likely be former governor Mark Warner (D-VA) who was a very popular governor of the state. The Republicans will likely choose former governor Jim Gilmore (R-VA). The latest poll showed a 55-39% lead for Warner in the state, which looks to be another sure victory for Democrats.

The other states are less clear. Among the other states possibly in play, you have New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, Alaska, and now even North Carolina and Texas is in play. In a lot of these states, the president, unpopular war, and the economy is what is making these races close. In states that you wouldn't expect would ever go blue have a chance to go blue due to those three factors. Just take a look at North Carolina and Texas.

When looking at these individual races in each state, the polls are really close. In New Hampshire, Senator John Sununu (R-NH) is losing to Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) as of now by 8 points. It is still a rather good margin for the former governor, but the race has tightened somewhat, which makes the race a tossup. However, the war remains unpopular and the Democrats have been taking over the state after the "phone gate" scandal of 2002 that involved Republicans jamming the lines of the Democratic Party headquarters' phones. It should be a good year for Democrats again in that state, but anything can happen there.

As for Colorado, the race has never shown clear momentum for either side. Turnout could be a major key to this election and who can get their votes out. Another difference could be the scandals. So far the Democratic candidate Congressman Mark Udall (D-CO) is running on a clean record. As for Republican Candidate Bob Schaffer (R-CO), he is running on a dirty record. Scandals have him going on trips tied to Abramoff, using the media illegally for his campaign, and being the dirtiest Congressmen when it comes to fighting pollution. All of those things have helped damage the Republican in the purple state. Also, Senator Obama polling ahead of McCain there doesn't help the cause any. Polls right now show Udall leading 45-42%, but still, no one has momentum in this crucial state.

In Alaska and North Carolina, the polls couldn't be any tighter. In North Carolina, Senator Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) seemed to be on her way to cruising to victory unless the governor there Mike Easley jumped in. Easley did not jump in, which lead everyone to believe Dole was safe, since the other candidates there seem to be quacks. However, the quack who got nominated all of a sudden started polling even with Dole. A new poll shows Democratic candidate Kay Hagan leading Dole 48-47%. The poll might be insignificant, but if it is a quack running and is able to tie the Senator in a red state, then the Republicans might be in deep trouble.

Alaska is up for grabs due to the scandals of Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK). Ted Stevens earlier last year was being investigated by the FBI for tax evasion among the crime list, which has injected doubt into his credibility. Also, Stevens was famous for the Bridge to Nowhere project that caused a lot of unpopularity among the citizens and his other pork projects. A poll released by Research 2000 shows Stevens trailing to Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich 48-43%. That shows how the scandal driving Senator has began to feel the effects of his corruption and pork projects.

In Minnesota and Texas, the Republicans have a slight advantage as of now, but it is still pretty close. In Minnesota, Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN) has been damaged by an unpopular war and president. The president's approval ratings there at times have hit the teens. However, scandals of the Democratic Candidate Al Franken (D-MN) of him not paying his taxes have hurt his chances at becoming Senator. As for Texas, Senator John Cornyn has horrible approval ratings in the low 40s. A lot of it has to do with the unpopular governor as well as the amnesty agenda of many Republicans. Polls show Cornyn leads Democratic Candidate Rick Noriega 47-43%, but the race has tightened and suggested the Senator could be in trouble.

Add all of those seats up, you get a total of six seats changing to the Democrats. Another two seats are up for grabs, which makes a total of eight seats in play for the Democrats. Another two seats that could get interesting include Maine and Oregon. As of now, both of those Republicans Senators have done a lot of things right on the unpopular war, which makes it likely they will hold their seats. Still, Republicans are very unpopular right now. Some Republican activist said that you could put them as a brand on the store shelves and no one would want to buy it. Also, for the record, every state the Democrats are up in show they would win back their seats easily. They also have major advantages in fundraising, which means they have more flexibility to send more money to other Democrats in other elections, which also favors them. Therefore, Democrats could only gain and right now, they look well on their way to doing so.

Sources:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_US_Senate_Elections#Predictions

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_US_Senate_Elections#Races