2009 Big 12 Championship Preview - Texas Vs. Nebraska

In a rare turn for the Big 12 Conference, both the North Division and South Division champs have clinched berths in the title game before finishing their last games of the season. 8-3 Nebraska sealed its spot with a 17-3 win over Kansas State. 11-0 Texas did the same with a 51-20 thumping of Kansas. With wins over Colorado and Texas A&M, Nebraska should be 9-3 and Texas 12-0 going into Dallas.

Not so rare a turn is that the Big 12 Championship game appears to be yet another mismatch with the South Division champion undefeated, ranked #3 in the country, gunning for a BCS title and all with two offensive players in the thick of the Heisman race. The North champion, meanwhile, is unranked, was beaten handily by the South Division's third best team and lost at home to Iowa State.

Iowa... State.

Nope. Circumstances don't look good for Nebraska who will also bear the burden of carrying the North Division's five-game losing streak into the contest. Five title matches lost by a total of 233-51. The North has been so dismal in battling the South that the total points scored by North teams in those five contests would only win 3 matches against the South's point totals.

While the SEC Championship pits #1 Florida vs. #2 Alabama in the latest "Game of the Century", the Big 12 Championship has all the markings of a ho-hummer of a game.

But looks can be deceiving. And it would be foolish for the Texas faithful to write the Cornhuskers off.

Yes, Texas has Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley teaming up for some dual Heisman-caliber stats. But Nebraska also has a Heisman contender by the name of Ndamukong Suh. What's so impressive about that? Well, while UT's Heisman-worthy tandem may be a rarity the likes of which only the USCs of the world typically achieve, Ndamukong Suh is a nose tackle. The last defensive player to win the Heisman was Michigan's Charles Woodson. He's also the only one-way defensive player to ever win the Heisman. Ndamukong Suh, if he gets enough votes, would be the second.

The Nebraska Blackshirts find themselves in the top 8 of every national defensive category, including owning the #3 scoring defense. Texas also has one of the top defenses in the country, including the #7 scoring defense. But the difference here for Nebraska is that the Huskers are squelching offenses with little help from its own offense. While the Longhorn offense mounts clock-chewing drives between quick, spirit-crushing scoring strikes, the Nebraska offense has continually put Suh and the Blackshirts in precarious positions -- whether forced into continual three-and-outs or turning the ball over deep in opposition territory. But the NU defense has risen to the occasion time after time.

As good as Nebraska's defense is statistically, it may actually be even better than those stats indicate. And they're the reason Texas won't be able to rest on its undefeated laurels to swoop through Dallas and on to Pasadena. While Suh and the Blackshirts have carried the team on its back all the way to eight wins (including four straight), the Nebraska offense is also finally showing signs of life after an anemic mid-season slump that dropped the Huskers to 80th nationally in scoring offense, including producing just seven points in that loss to Iowa State.

The recent "surge" in Nebraska's offensive output is not coincidentally tied to the the health of running back Roy Helu Jr. Helu suffered a shoulder injury in Nebraska's game vs. Missouri and, even though he played in all subsequent games, he was often extremely limited. Helu's slump hit its nadir in that ill-fated turn against Iowa State as the running back had just five carries, two of which resulted in costly lost fumbles. This was also the low point for Nebraska's offense as a whole.

Helu's shoulder appeared healed by Nebraska's 10-3 win over Oklahoma as the running back produced some big 4th quarter gains to pin the Sooners deep in their own territory. But his "break out" game was the following week on the road against Kansas in which Helu racked up 156 yards and three touchdowns in a game that needed its offense to produce as the Blackshirts had a rare "down" game.

With the return of freshman Rex Burkhead (out five weeks with a broken toe), the Cornhusker offense is now much more capable of helping that stellar defense than it was just a month ago.

What Texas faces in Dallas is a much different opponent than the one that struggled against Texas Tech and Iowa State. Keep this in mind about the Iowa State game. Nebraska turned the ball over 8 times against the Cyclones while Iowa State never gave the ball up once. Four of Nebraska's turnovers came inside the Cyclone 5 yard. And yet, Nebraska still only lost by two points.

Turnovers (along with untimely penalties) have haunted Bo Pelini's teams throughout his two-year tenure. But, in the four games since Iowa State (all wins), Nebraska has given away possession just three times. Were it not for those offensive snafus against Iowa State and a similar epidemic on the road against Virginia Tech (although it was ill-timed penalties that undid the Huskers in Blacksburg), this match would likely feature an 11-1 Nebraska against a 12-0 Texas.

A much different animal right there.

While getting a handle on turnovers, Nebraska still has penalty issues. The Huskers have committed 79 infractions on the season (a 7 per game average) including giving up 12 penalties against both Missouri and Texas Tech and 11 against Oklahoma.

This sort of self-wounding will be fatal against Texas. Especially if Nebraska's turnover problems resume. But, a mistake-reduced offense, combined with the regular high-level of play by Suh and the defense could cause Texas some unexpected fits.

As for the Longhorns -- they've been consistent all season, comparable to Texas' National Title run in 2005. Winning their 11 games by an average of 42-13, the Longhorns' only let-up was in the Red River Shootout -- a three-point win over Oklahoma, before the Sooners' season completely unraveled. Oklahoma held Texas to its lowest point total (by half) and its lowest yard total of the season. Were it not for the re-injury of Sam Bradford in the first quarter and a bevy of untimely turnovers (by both sides), the outcome of this game could have been much different.

Still, Texas won and remains in contention for a BCS title. The thing is, Nebraska's defense is arguably as good (if not better) than Oklahoma's -- and both defenses are easily the best Texas has faced all year. But the difference between Nebraska and Oklahoma in a match versus Texas lies squarely with the performance of the Husker offense.

Texas will bring a defense on par with Oklahoma, plus the best offense Nebraska has seen all season. UT's even spread of talent will be Nebraska's ultimate undoing.

The Big 12 Championship will be close for three quarters with Nebraska having an even shot at a lead. But the Blackshirts will be worn-out by the 4th quarter as Nebraska's offense struggles to stay on the field against the Texas defense. Barring costly mistakes that put the game away early, look for Texas to pad a close lead toward the end of the game.

Texas 24 Nebraska 14

Interesting note: The Texas-Nebraska series has been lopsided record-wise since the start of the Big 12 Conference with Texas winning seven of eight games. But this belies what has been a consistently competitive contest between the two on a game by game basis. Only three of the eight matches have been decided by ten or more points. Two of them were Texas wins in 1996 and 2003 and a Nebraska win in 1999. The five remaining games are Texas wins, but each was by 4 points or fewer.