2009 College Football Bowl Picks

The 2009 College Football Bowl Season kicks off in about a week. This year has some particularly good match-ups, thanks in no small part to so many teams finishing the year undefeated.

Who will remain undefeated? Read on to find out.

New Mexico Bowl Dec. 19

Albuquerque, NM

Wyoming (6-6) vs. Fresno State (8-4)

Fresno State pulled out a miracle ending against Illinois to put a happy cap on a season wrought with both heartbreak (a 4th down gamble in the redzone nearly upended Cincinnati's as yet undefeated season) and frustration -- see Boise State and Nevada.

The Bulldogs won't need any miracles against the Cowboys. Having been shutout three times already this season, Wyoming simply doesn't have the offensive fire power to keep up with Fresno State. This game will be over by half-time.

Fresno State 45

Wyoming 10

Airs on ESPN 4:30 p.m. EST

Actual Result -- Wyoming 35-28. Freshman quarterback leads the Cowpolks to thrilling comeback, overtime win. Who'd a thunk it?

St. Petersburg Bowl Dec. 19

St. Petersburg, FL

Rutgers (8-4) vs. UCF (8-4)

Rutgers and UCF bring identical records to St. Petersburg with a similar array of mediocre wins and bad losses. UCF took down Houston (the Big 12 South giant killer) and Rutgers staged a nifty (though failed) comeback against West Virginia. But outside those, there's not much for either team to blow horns about.

UCF has been the hotter team down the stretch and Rutgers is only two games removed from an embarrassing afternoon in the Carrier Dome. I'm going with momentum and a home-state crowd.

UCF 24

Rutgers 17

Airs on ESPN 8 p.m. EST

Actual Result -- Rutgers 45 - 24 The Scarlet Knights made UCF look silly. To be frank.

New Orleans Bowl Dec. 20

New Orleans, LA

MTSU (9-3) vs. Southern Miss (7-5)

Middle Tennessee State brings a 6-game win streak to New Orleans to face a 5-loss Southern Miss. The only problem for the Blue Raiders is that those last six wins came against teams with a combined 24-48 record -- none of whom owns a winning record. Southern Miss, meanwhile gave Kansas, Houston and East Carolina all they could handle in three of their losses. The Golden Eagles also own a solid win over UCF. Despite the records, Southern Miss is a more battle-tested team and, frankly, better than MTSU.

Southern Miss 28

MTSU 14

Airs on ESPN 8 p.m. EST

Actual Result -- Middle Tennessee 42-32 Dwight Dasher did it all for the Blue Raiders. He ran. He passed. And made me and Southern Miss look like chumps.

Las Vegas Bowl Dec. 22

Las Vegas, NV

Oregon State (8-4) vs. BYU (10-2)

The Cougars produced 2009's first major upset by knocking off then third-ranked Oklahoma (and injuring Sam Bradford to boot). That, along with an overtime victory over Utah, is BYU's marquis win of the season. Unfortunately beating the Sooners and the Utes simply doesn't have the same cache as it would have had in 2008. The ten-win Cougars were also humiliated by TCU and a milquetoast Florida State.

Oregon State, meanwhile, lost very close games to two Top 10 teams (Cincinnati and Oregon) and were toe-to-toe with USC and Arizona in those losses, too.

Four losses on the Beavers schedule really isn't as bad as two losses on BYU's.

Oregon State 34

BYU 21

Airs on ESPN 8 p.m. EST

Poinsettia Bowl Dec. 23

San Diego, CA

Utah (9-3) vs. California (8-4)

California started the season with sky-high hopes, an AP Top 10 ranking and a potential Heisman contender at tailback.

All of that came crashing down in a late September trip to Autzen Stadium. A 42-3 blow out loss to the Ducks sent the Golden Bears careening out of the Top 10. A 30-3 spanking by USC a week later knocked them out of the rankings altogether. Cal's season drifted toward recovery until a visit from Oregon State produced another lopsided loss and ended the season for Jahvid Best. The Bears mustered some inspiring back-to-back wins over ranked Stanford and Arizona only to have it crash down again in a whipping by lowly Washington.

Utah, by contrast, has a trio of losses to ranked opponents and only one of those was "bad" (against TCU). The Utes are a sharper team than Cal. And with the loss of Best, I think they're more talented, too.

Utah 38

California 14

Airs on ESPN 8 p.m. EST

Hawaii Bowl Dec. 24

Honolulu, HI

Nevada (8-4) vs. SMU (7-5)

Nevada tore off an 8-game win streak after starting the season 0-3. The Wolfpack mounted a fierce comeback at Boise State before eventually falling to the Broncos as they tried to extend the streak to 9.

SMU owns a nice win over East Carolina but gave Washington State its only win of the season. Can the first bowl-worthy Mustang team since the infamous player pay scandals of the 1980s contain the top rushing offense in the country?

Not enough to win. Wolfpack will pull away in the second half.

Nevada 31

SMU 17

ESPN 8 p.m. EST

Emerald Bowl Dec. 26

San Francisco, CA

Boston College (8-4) vs. USC (8-4)

USC splits dubious honors with Oklahoma as 2009's biggest bust with the Trojans mounting their worst season since Pete Carroll's debut in 2001. But it wasn't just the most losses USC has put out in 8 years. These were some of the most embarrassing defeats of the decade for Southern Cal.

Boston College is trying to stave off a slump of their own. A loss to the Trojans will mark the Eagles' worst record since 2003.

The difference is, Boston College is used to 9 win season. For USC, it's a big step down. How will a business-as-usual mentality play against a Trojan squad in desperate need of Prozac? It will keep the Eagles in it for the first half. But USC, despite its identical record and blow out losses, is still a talent level above BC. Maybe even two levels. That will be the difference in what should otherwise be a competitive game.

USC 28

Boston College 17

Airs on ESPN 8:30 p.m. EST

Meineke Car Care Bowl Dec. 26

Charlotte, NC

North Carolina (8-4) vs. Pittsburgh (9-3)

Just how good are the Tarheels anyway? They beat two teams they probably should've lost to -- Virginia Tech and Miami -- and lost to three teams they should have beat -- Virginia, Florida State and NC State.

Pitt jumped out to a phenomenal 9-1 start before suffering back-to-back heartbreaking losses to the two best teams on its slate. The last was a 1-point setback versus Sugar Bowl-bound Cincinnati. A bungled extra point cost the Panthers what would have been the Big East title and a storybook ending to the season.

I believe North Carolina to be a slight underachiever and Pitt to be a slight overachiever. I like the ball-busting, Miami/Virginia Tech-beating Tarheels to take the field in Charlotte. That, and a home-state crowd, will be too much for the Panthers.

North Carolina 35

Pittsburgh 28

Airs on ESPN 4 p.m. EST

Little Caesars Bowl Dec. 26

Detroit, MI

Ohio (9-4) vs. Marshall (6-6)

Ohio is an extremely well-coached and disciplined team. Marshall, despite a 6-6 record, has shown that it can hang with some quality teams.

Discipline and coaching will ultimately trump pluckiness in this match. But it will be close.

Ohio 24

Marshall 21

Airs on ESPN 1 p.m. EST

Music City Bowl Dec. 27

Nashville, TN

Kentucky (7-5) vs. Clemson (8-5)

Clemson, lead by all-purpose phenom, CJ Spiller, can put up a lot of points in hurry. But stout defenses have kept Clemson in check all season. TCU did it. South Carolina did it. Can Kentucky do it?

The Wildcats give up an average of 26 points per game. Clemson should best that average. Kentucky will have a hard time keeping up.

Clemson 31

Kentucky 21

Airs on ESPN 8 p.m. EST

Independence Bowl Dec. 28

Shreveport, LA

Texas A&M (6-6) vs. Georgia (7-5)

Georgia's disappointing season ended with a big momentum booster as the Bulldogs got the pleasure of knocking arch-instate-rival Georgia Tech out of the Top 10. They will bring an SEC defense to Shreveport to face a Texas A&M team who has been all offense.

A&M quarterback Jerrod Johnson made a name for himself with a 342 passing-yard and 4 touchdown performance against Texas. But it was still not enough to catch the Longhorns' 49 points.

I like Georgia's momentum and defense to keep the Aggies humble.

Georgia 38

Texas A&M 24

Airs on ESPN 5 p.m. EST

Champs Sports Bowl Dec. 29

Orlando, FL

Miami (9-3) vs. Wisconsin (9-3)

The Hurricanes pulled themselves out of a three-season slump in remarkable fashion by starting the season 3-1 against a slate many predicted could have made them 0-4. Unexpected losses to Clemson and North Carolina brought them back down to Earth a little. But Miami appears headed for a major comeback just in time for the new decade.

Aside from an overtime win versus Fresno State, Wisconsin lost to every good team on its schedule. While a 51-10 pasting of Hawaii was a nice warm up for the bowl, Miami is every bit an Iowa/Ohio State level opponent. Bad news for the Badgers.

Miami 28

Wisconsin 21

Airs on ESPN 8 p.m. EST

EagleBank Bowl Dec. 29

Washington, DC

UCLA (6-6) vs. Temple (9-3)

Bruins made the post-season only after Army failed to beat Navy to get in instead.

Temple rises from the primordial ooze of gridiron ineptitude to post the Owls' best season since 1979.

Mismatch? Hardly. The Bruins may have six loses to Temple's three, but those six UCLA opponents would've beaten Temple, too. Easily.

Temple has the talent and coaching to make the game close, but UCLA has, at the very least, equal talent and coaching -- plus far more "big stage" experience.

UCLA 24

Temple 17

Airs on ESPN 4:30 p.m. EST

Holiday Bowl Dec. 30

San Diego, CA

Nebraska (9-4) vs. Arizona (8-4)

Don't let those four-loss records fool you. Arizona was a heart-breaking double overtime loss from heading to the Rose Bowl while Nebraska was a mere phantom second from going to the Fiesta.

The Huskers, bogged down by a troubled offense, played both Virginia Tech and Texas to one point. And in front of opposing crowds to boot. A once-in-one-hundred-years plague of turnovers doomed them against Iowa State. Literally three missed plays kept Nebraska from a 12-1 record and a major claim to being "back."

Arizona's losses weren't quite so illustrious. Look for both teams to make a huge impact in 2010.

As for the Holiday Bowl, I see a hard-fought defensive struggle. But Nebraska, led by the nations best player -- Ndamukong Suh -- will outstifle the Wildcats. Nebraska opens a close game with a defensive or special teams touchdown.

Nebraska 21

Arizona 10

Airs on ESPN 8 p.m.

Humanitarian Bowl Dec. 30

Boise, ID

Idaho (7-5) vs. Bowling Green (7-5)

Idaho is not a very good team. And neither is Bowling Green. But Idaho's offensive line (led by Outland finalist, Mike Iupati) plus home-crowd advantage should be all the Vandals need to put away the Falcons.

Should be a relatively high-scoring affair, too.

Idaho 38

Bowling Green 34

Airs on ESPN 4:30 p.m. EST

Texas Bowl Dec. 31

Houston, TX

Missouri (8-4) vs. Navy (8-4)

Missouri is in a rebuilding year. Surprisingly, with all the big name offensive losses from last year (Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman), the Blaine Gabbert-led offense is humming along just fine. It's the defense that needs work.

Navy's offense is pretty good, ranking 3rd nationally in rushing.

But the Midshipmen have been slumping a little lately producing just 17 points a piece against Hawaii and Army in their last two games. Neither of which are defensive juggernauts.

Navy will need more than 17 points to beat Missouri. I think they'll do it, but it still won't be enough. Tigers' offense should roll.

Missouri 35

Navy 20

Airs on ESPN 3:30 p.m. EST

Armed Forces Bowl Dec. 31

Fort Worth, TX

Air Force (7-5) vs. Houston (10-3)

Houston has the nation's top passing attack, averaging 450 yards through the air per game. Luckily for Air Force, the Falcolns have the nation's stingiest pass defense, with just 180 yards allowed per game.

Something's got to give. And I think it's going to be Air Force's defense. Houston has faced better defenses than Air Force has faced offenses. BYU, which has a solid but not quite as potent a passing attack as Houston, put up five passing touchdowns on Air Force in the final game of the regular season.

While the Cougars don't have a stellar defense to back-up their high-powered offense, I just don't see the Falcons keeping up,

Houston 35

Air Force 20

Airs on ESPN Noon EST

Sun Bowl Dec. 31

El Paso, TX

Stanford (8-4) vs. Oklahoma (7-5)

Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart ran roughshod over Pac-10 defenses. Can he do the same against an Oklahoma squad whose defense was easily the strong suit of the Sooners since Sam Bradford's season-ending injury?

Oklahoma's disappointing season was wrought with near-misses (Texas, Miami, BYU), complete collapses (Texas Tech) and stunning dominations (Oklahoma State, Texas A&M). Which Sooner team shows up in El Paso? For Oklahoma faithful, it will hopefully be the one that blanked instate rival Oklahoma State at home to finish the year.

Stanford has also had its ups and downs in 2009 as the Cardinal ultimately found its way to a bowl for the first time since 2001. The pinnacle of the season came in early November in back-to-back weeks of knocking off Top 10 teams -- Oregon and USC -- putting up over 50 points on each -- thanks very much to the fleet feet of Gerhart. Stanford was brought back down to Earth by Cal the following week.

With the two best units -- Oklahoma's defense and Stanford's offense -- square off head to head, the Sun Bowl may come down to which of the weaker units steps up.

I have a hunch it's going to be Stanfords defense stepping up against Oklahoma's offense, leaving the Sooners with six losses for the first time in 11 seasons.

Stanford 24

Oklahoma 17

Airs on CBS Noon EST

Insight Bowl Dec. 31

Tempe, AZ

Minnesota (6-6) vs. Iowa State (6-6)

It's garnet and gold versus garnet and gold looking for a shot at a winning season.

Paul Rhoads has orchestrated a solid turnaround for Iowa State who finished 2-10 last year. Minnesota has taken a slight step back from last season in which the Gophers shot out to a 7-1 start before dropping its last five games.

A pretty even match-up of two teams heading, seemingly, in opposite directions. But I don't think Iowa State is quite on Minnesota's level yet.

Minnesota 28

Iowa State 17

Airs on the NFL Network 5:30 p.m. EST

Chick-fil-A Bowl Dec. 31

Atlanta, GA

Virginia Tech (9-3) vs. Tennessee (7-5)

The Hokies, no doubt, pictured themselves playing in January before the season started. The Vols, after sitting home last year, are probably happy to make it just one day shy of a New Years bowl.

Lane Kiffin's slow turnaround of Tennessee has had some shining moments (nearly knocking off eventual SEC champ Alabama) and some not-so shining ones (UCLA, Ole Miss). Needing overtime to dispatch Kentucky in the last game of the season lies somewhere between shining and dull.

Virginia Tech, with a beat-down of Miami and a thriller over Nebraska, is a much more complete team. They also have the kind of running back in Ryan Williams that should give Tennessee's porous run defense fits.

Tennessee is on the uptick. But Virginia Tech, looking for its 8th ten-win season in the last 11 years, hasn't gone anywhere.

Virginia Tech 24

Tennessee 14

Airs on ESPN 7:30 p.m. EST

Outback Bowl Jan. 1

Tampa, FL

Northwestern (8-4) vs. Auburn (7-5)

A Big 10 giant killer versus an SEC would-be giant killer.

Northwestern ended 2009 in spectacular fashion, first by taking advantage of Ricky Stanzi's injury in up-ending Iowa's Cinderella season, 17-10 in Iowa City. And then by knocking 16th ranked Wisconsin off its pedestal. One wonders where the heck this Wildcat team was in September and October when Northwestern dropped three games to very beatable foes Syracuse, Minnesota and Michigan State.

Auburn's season, on the other hand, started much better than it ended, jumping out to 5-0 before losing five of its last seven.

Auburn's decline would seem to indicate a lost cause against the surging Wildcats, but their gutsy performance in the Iron Bowl (even though a loss to Alabama) gives the War Eagle some hope going into Tampa. Holding Heisman-winner Mark Ingram to a paltry 30 yards on 16 carries, Auburn owned a one-point lead on Bama all the way to one and a half minutes left in the game, when the Crimson Tide took the lead for good. A desperation drive of almost 40 yards came up 37 short of an Auburn win.

The loss aside, Auburn fared much better against the National Title contender than the Florida Gators did a week later.

Will Northwestern's streak of big wins continue? Or has Auburn shown enough grit in its last game to turn the tables on its Big 10 opponent.

I like Auburn in this one.

Auburn 28

Northwestern 24

Airs on ESPN 11 a.m. EST

Capital One Bowl Jan. 1

Orlando, FL

Penn State (10-2) vs. LSU (9-3)

LSU has rebounded nicely from its post-2007-National-Title slump of last season, merely losing to the SEC's two best teams (and perhaps the two best in the country) while falling in a bizarre finish to Ole Miss in what would have been a stunning comeback.

Penn State marched soldierly along in posting Joe Paterno's 20th ten-win season as coach of the Nittany Lions. A fantastic milestone for the winningest active coach in college football. Unfortunately, the two best teams on Penn State's slate, flat out handled the Lions.

And LSU is at least as good as Iowa, if not Ohio State. Bad news for Penn State fans.

LSU used last year's Chick-fil-A Bowl against Georgia Tech to make a statement that the defending national champs were not down and out. I think they'll try to do that again.

Only the Tigers will find that Penn State's no push over.

LSU 31

Penn State 27

Airs on ABC 1 p.m. EST

Gator Bowl Jan. 1

Jacksonville, FL

West Virginia (9-3) vs. Florida State (6-6)

The Gator Bowl gives retiring legend, Bobby Bowden, a going away present by inviting one of the least deserving teams of recent memory.

But don't let that 6-6 Seminole record fool you. Florida State is more than capable of playing with West Virginia. Just ask BYU (who suffered a 54-28 beatdown by FSU at home) or Miami and Georgia Tech who got the full brunt of Bowden's offense in narrow wins. Yep, the six-win, six-loss Seminoles are no chumps. At least not on offense.

The good news for West Virginia with its power running attack is they should have no trouble moving and scoring on Florida State. Add in a stiff, pick-happy defense (WVU held Cincinnati to 24 points and Pitt to 16) and FSU has drawn a tall order in the Gator Bowl.

If this were a regular season match-up, I'd pick the Mountaineers by ten points. But I'm calling an upset here. Emotions will be high in an effort to win one for Bowden. With West Virginia having provided Bowden's formative coaching years, I see the old lion going down swinging.

Florida State in a squeaky close upset. A last minute field goal would be a nice touch.

Florida State 24

West Virginia 23

Airs on CBS 1 p.m. EST

Rose Bowl Jan. 1

Pasadena, CA

Oregon (10-2) vs. Ohio State (10-2)

Oregon and Ohio State come to Pasadena with two losses a piece. With the exception of Boise State to open the year, all of those losses are to teams the Buckeyes and Ducks should have beat. The Grand-Daddy of Them All probably doesn't need any embellishing, but you can comfortably look at this as a virtual match-up of unbeatens.

Oregon got caught up in the (near) Heisman-bound stormfront of Toby Gerhart who blasted the Ducks for 223 yards and three touchdowns in an uncharacteristic 51-point humbling of the Pac-10 champs. The Duck defense hasn't looked quite the same since, needing 44 points and two overtimes to wax Arizona and allowing Oregon State 33 points.

There are no defensive issues for Ohio State, boasting a Top 10 unit in total defense, the Buckeyes held 11 of its 12 opponents to under 20 points in regulation. But has Ohio State seen an offense nearly as potent as Oregon's? Early on, one might have thought USC on par with the Ducks. But the season's results show this is clearly not the case.

Mutual opponents reveal a bad sign for the Buckeyes. Both teams have played USC and Purdue. For Oregon, this resulted in two wins. For Ohio State, two losses.

But 5-7 Purdue was a complete enigma. Beating Ohio State on one hand, but losing to Northern Illinois on another. While the Ducks beat the Boilermakers, it took a 2-point conversion pass caught out of bounds to prevent overtime.

USC's win over Ohio State came on a last-minute drive after the Buckeyes had completely dominated the Trojans defensively. By the time Oregon got USC, the cracks in Troy's muscular vaneer were widely exposed. Like the Purdue match ups, it's hard to say what either game against USC means.

The Rose Bowl ultimately comes down to how well Ohio State's stalwart defense slows down the yard-chomping Duck offense. Like last year's match with a high-powered Texas offense in the Fiesta Bowl, the 2009 Buckeyes are more than capable of stepping up to (nearly) win the game. While Oregon's defense has let up since the Stanford game, an average performance may be all they need versus the conservative Ohio State offense.

I like Masoli and the Oregon offense to break Ohio State's defensive back one too many times. It will be a hard-fought battle. But Oregon will take it.

Oregon 28

Ohio State 24

Airs on ABC5 p.m. EST

Sugar Bowl Jan. 1

New Orleans, LA

Florida (12-1) vs. Cincinnati (12-0)

As Brian Kelly saunters off to South Bend, interim coach Jeff Quinn must be wondering just what he's going to do as undefeated Cincinnati gets, by far, its toughest opponent of the season.

The Bearcats lost a chance to turn up in the BCS National Championship against Alabame due entirely to circumstances beyond their control -- namely the last minute of the Big 12 Conference Championship in which, by all rights, Nebraska should have probably won thereby knocking Texas out of the title game.

Florida, by contrast, blew its own shot at a BCS title berth by losing handily to Alabama in the SEC Championship.

But don't let these twists of fate fool you. Cincinnati is simply not in Florida's league.

Three of UC's last four opponents nearly upended the Bearcats' perfect season -- Connecticut, West Virginia and Pittsburg. With all due respect to the Huskies, Mountaineers and Panthers, Tebow and the Gators would devour those teams.

So a jilted UC with an interim coach comes to New Orleans to take on a heart-broken juggernaut and arguably the coach of the decade.

I just don't see how this will turn out good at all for Cincinnati. Yes, the Bearcats have a marvelous offense. But the Gators are just as good on that end. Plus they've got one bone-crushing defense with something to prove.

Kelly was smart to go to South Bend. He wouldn't want this coming Sugar Bowl on his resume.

Florida 42

Cincinnati 10

Airs on FOX 8:30 p.m. EST

Cotton Bowl Jan. 2

Arlington, TX

Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. Mississippi (8-4)

Last year, Mississippi went to the Cotton Bowl with swagger, momentum and a Top 25 ranking and came away with a surprising beat-down of a highly ranked Big 12 opponent, Texas Tech. The Rebels were on a five-game win-streak, afterall. And boasted the season's only win over the mighty Florida Gators.

This year, aside from taking on another Big 12 foe, Ole Miss has none of that going into Dallas.

But the good news for the Rebels is that Oklahoma State seems to be in the same boat. The Cowboys do have a Top 25 ranking (19) but, like Ole Miss, they suffered a humiliating blow-out in the last regular season game to an instate rival -- a 0-27 loss to Oklahoma. Mississippi State beat Ole Miss 41-27 on the same day.

The 2009 Cotton Bowl isn't exactly featuring world-beaters this time around. The question is, which of these two preseason Top 10 hopefuls is least wounded psychologically?

Mississippi has a fantastic win over LSU which immediately proceeded the Mississippi State loss. The Rebels also had no trouble handling Tennessee as Dexter McCluster ran roughshod over the Vols for three touchdowns -- something neither Mark Ingram nor Tim Tebow could do.

Oklahoma State doesn't have a marquis win to hang its hat on as Georgia, Missouri and Texas Tech have gathered 13 losses between them and, unlike last year, none are to be found anywhere near the national rankings. Meanwhile the Texas and Oklahoma games were blowouts and they looked imminently beatable (without Zac Robinson) against Big 12 North bottom-feeder Colorado.

Oklahoma State played some good football in 2009. It had to to reach nine wins. But that greatness has been mostly absent in the second half of the season. While the Ole Miss loss to Mississippi State can be legitimately qualified as an emotional letdown from the LSU win, there's nothing to excuse Oklahoma State's derailment.

I think it's only going to get worse in Dallas.

Mississippi 31

Oklahoma State 20

Airs on FOX 2 p.m. EST

Liberty Bowl Jan. 2

Memphis, TN

East Carolina (9-4) vs. Arkansas (7-5)

There used to be a time when 5-loss college football teams never played in January. This year there are six such teams. Even crazier, there are two January bowl teams with as many as six losses. It's easy to get cynical about what the bowls have become when you see post-New Years slates like this one.

But, in the case of Arkansas at least, sometimes a five-loss team is pretty darn good. While the Hogs had a September to forget, things got pretty interesting in Fayettville, when Arkansas blew out then 17th-ranked Auburn only to follow it up with a near upset of then #1 Florida. But for a field goal with nine seconds left, the Razorbacks were set to take the Gators into overtime.

Arkansas was 3-3 at this point. Were the back-to-back Top 10 caliber performances a fluke? A trip to Mississippi said it might be. (Arkansas lost by 13 to Ole Miss.) But wide-margin wins over South Carolina and Mississippi State said otherwise.

At 7-4, Arkansas' final test of the regular season came in Baton Rouge. LSU was hoping to coast into a top tier bowl. Instead, the Tigers needed a last-second field goal followed by one more in overtime to finally finish off the Razorbacks who'd stayed close the whole game and had taken two separate leads. Arkansas didn't quite have enough in it to pick up win number 8.

East Carolina finished 2009 with its second consecutive Conference USA title and is looking to land its first 10-win season since 1991. The Pirates offense isn't quite as prolific as Arkansas', but its defense is a little stingier. But this, more than likely, has as much to do with the conference slates these two defensive units went up against.

Skip Holtz will no doubt have some added incentive to beat the University his father coached for while the younger Holtz was in high school. But I don't think sentimental motive and a markedly easier schedule will be quite enough to bring down an SEC agitator like Arkansas.

Arkansas 24

East Carolina 20

International Bowl Jan. 2

Toronto, Canada

South Florida (7-5) vs. Northern Illinois (7-5)

South Florida has had a taste of the big stage in recent history, climbing all the way to a #5 ranking in 2007 with a 6-0 start. As a member of the Big East Conference, the Bulls' schedule is littered with marquis names such as Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and West Virginia. As a school in Florida, USF also schedules instate titans Miami and Florida State regularly.

As a member of the Mid-American Conference, Northern Illinois' slate is a shadow of South Florida's, Big 10 out-of-conference opponents notwithstanding.

So when the Huskies go 7-5, it's a little different from South Florida doing the same. An early season win over Purdue is a nice feather in Northern Illinois' cap. But it doesn't make up for losing to Idaho and Toledo. South Florida has wins over West Virginia and Florida State and respectable losses to Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Miami.

If they're mentally up to it, the Bulls should roll.

South Florida 38

Northern Illinois 14

Airs on ESPN2 Noon EST

Papajohns.com Bowl Jan. 2

Birmingham, AL

Connecticut (7-5) vs. South Carolina (7-5)

South Carolina has looked great winning (Clemson) and losing (Florida). The Gamecocks have also looked bad winning (Vanderbilt) and losing (Tennessee, Arkansas). Which makes you wonder what kind of team will show up in Birmingham.

UCONN's season has been marked with tragedy -- losing cornerback Jasper Howard to a senseless act of violence -- and gritty determination finding defeat on the field only to its best opponents and by the slimmest of margins.

South Carolina's best games have been their last two. They have more talent across the board than does UCONN. But I think the Huskies have gelled into one fiercely determined football team.

UCONN 21

South Carolina 17

Airs on ESPN 2 p.m. EST

Alamo Bowl Jan. 2

San Antonio, TX

Texas Tech (8-4) vs. Michigan State (6-6)

Michigan State would have a hard time against Mike Leach and Texas Tech even if they weren't coming to San Antonio with a rash of suspensions.

There's not much to analyze here. Texas Tech rolls.

Texas Tech 45

Michigan State 14

Airs on ESPN 9 p.m. EST

Fiesta Bowl Jan. 4

Glendale, AZ

TCU (12-0) vs. Boise State (13-0)

Two undefeated teams from non-auto-qualifying conferences head to the desert for a consolation prize. Whomever wins this game should be the runner-up to the National Champion in my book.

There is much to like about both of these teams and the Broncos and the Frogs should really have been given a shot at a BCS conference champion. I think TCU has played the tougher schedule and has the defense to slow down Boise State's high-scoring offense.

I like a relatively low scoring game with TCU's defense making just enough plays to give them the edge. Kind of like last year's match in the Poinsettia Bowl.

TCU 21

Boise State 17

Airs on FOX

Orange Bowl Jan. 5

Miami, FL

Georgia Tech (11-2) vs. Iowa (10-2)

A lot of people have jumped on the Iowa bandwagon this year. Called the team "plucky." Referred to the season as "magical." I've been impressed with the Hawkeyes once -- on September 26 in Happy Valley. The rest of the year, the boys from Iowa City have looked pretty pedestrian.

Georgia Tech, on the other hand has played lights out on offense all year. Yes, the Yellow Jacket defense leaves much to be desired, but Iowa won't be able to score enough to keep up. Winning ugly can cut it more often than not in the Big 10, but Iowa needs an offense to beat Georgia Tech.

Georgia Tech 31

Iowa 23

Airs on FOX 8 p.m.

GMAC Bowl Jan. 6

Mobile, AL

Central Michigan (11-2) vs. Troy (9-3)

Not enough exposure to either of these teams to form much of a judgement. But, looking at the schedule -- Central Michigan took down Michigan State in Lansing and beat Bowling Green pretty handily while Troy lost to the Falcons.

Central Michigan 35

Troy 21

Airs on ESPN 7 p.m.
BCS National Championship Jan. 7

Pasadena, CA

Texas (13-0) vs. Alabama (13-0)

Texas is going to lose this game.

Or it certainly would if games were determined by fan, pundit and Las Vegas speculation. Fortunately for the Longhorns, no amount of prognostication has ever preordained a sports outcome. And while just about everybody outside the Lone Star state is looking to the 2009 BCS Championship as an Alabama coronation, don't think for a second Colt McCoy and his Texas teammates are out of this.

For complete preview of the 2010 BCS Championship Game, go here.
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