2009 Home Run Derby Participants and Predictions

The 2009 Major League Baseball Home Run Derby is set to take place on July 13, 2009 at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri. This will be the 25th annual home run contest, the first one taking place in 1985. The Derby will be televised by ESPN. There will be a total of eight participants, four from the American League, and four from the National League. The four American League players will be Carlos Pena (Tampa Bay), Joe Mauer (Minnesota Twins), Brandon Inge (Detroit Tigers), and Nelson Cruz (Texas Rangers). The four National League players will be Ryan Howard (Philadelphia), Prince Fielder (Milwaukee), Adrian Gonzalez (San Diego), and Albert Pujols (St. Louis). Ryan Howard is the only one out of the eight participants who has won a Home Run Derby. Justin Morneau won the 2008 Home Run Derby, but has declined to defend the crown.

In the first round of the home run hitting contest, each batter gets ten outs to hit as many home runs as they can. An out is defined as any swing that does not result in a home run. The four of the eight hitters who hit the most home runs advance to the second round. The four with the least home runs are eliminated. In case of a tie for fourth place between two or more players, there will be a five pitch swing-off to see who will advance. My predictions for the first round goes as follows: Carlos Pena (5 homers), Ryan Howard (8 homers), Joe Mauer (7 homers), Prince Fielder (6 homers), Brandon Inge (2 homers), Adrian Gonzalez (4 homers), Nelson Cruz (3 homers), Albert Pujols (8 homers). Carlos Pena, Brandon Inge, Adrian Gonzalez, and Nelson Cruz are eliminated with the four lowest scores. Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer, and Prince Fielder advance to the next round.

In the semifinals of this event, the four batters that are left, keep their first round score and try to add more home runs with their second round score. The two sluggers who have the highest combined homers from the first and second round advance to the finals. My predictions for the semifinals: Ryan Howard (5 homers = 13 combined homers), Joe Mauer (7 homers = 14 comined homers), Albert Pujols (8 homers = 15 combined homers), Prince Fielder (4 homers = 10 combined homers). Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder are eliminated with the two lowest scores in the semis, while Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols advance to the finals with the two highest.

In the finals of the home run derby, the two hitters who advanced to the finals have their home run totals reset and start from zero. Each of the two batters remaining get 10 "outs" to work with, and who ever hits the most homers, wins the contest. Again, if there is a tie after the 10 outs, they have a five pitch swing-off. There has never been a swing-off in the finals of the derby. Fatigue is a big factor in the finals, as each batter has gone through two rounds already. My predictions for the finals: Joe Mauer (4 homers) and Albert Pujols (5 homers).

My final prediction is that Albert Pujols wins the 2009 Home Run Derby, winning the contest in his home ballpark.