2009 Hurricane Season: Atlantic Predictions

The 2009 Atlantic Hurricane season officially kicks off on June 1st, but the newly updated April long-range hurricane forecast has been released by Dr. William Gray along with colleague Phillip Klotzbach. Dr. Gray, professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University has been forecasting hurricanes predictions for many years and is considered the top expert on hurricane predictions. His recent April long range predictions call for a relatively average Atlantic hurricane season, down slightly from his December numbers.

The Atlantic basin is forecast to produce 12 named storms, down from the December forecast of 14 named storms. Of the 12 storms predicted, only 6 are forecast to become hurricanes. The predicted total number of hurricane days during the hurricane season is 55 days, down from the 70 days predicted in the last report.

The best news, though we all know the actual number of storms can be close to the predictions or way off base, is that the hurricane forecast only calls for two intense hurricanes. Intense hurricanes are classified as storms of category three or higher. This means winds of 111 mph or higher according to the Saffir-Simpson scale. Probabilities of one of these intense hurricanes reaching landfall along the United States coastline is 54%. In the past century the average is about 52%. This is great news as the last five years have been above average, producing several intense hurricanes.

Those who live in the Florida and gulf coast region should still be alert as the probability of a land falling intense hurricane is 32%. Interests along the eastern seaboard as well as along the Gulf of Mexico should begin to get their hurricane preparedness kits ready, non-perishable foods stocked, and a emergency plan of action should a hurricane be headed your way. Stock up on these items now to avoid the last minute rush when a hurricane is barreling down on your city.

I personally got caught in a jam when hurricane Opal was closing in on the Florida panhandle and I wasn't prepared. I ended up sitting in traffic for over eight hours to drive about 90 miles away from the center of the storm. I very well may be underestimating the time spent sitting in traffic, and this was with both sides of the interstate opened only to east bound traffic.

I have ridden out a few of relatively recent hurricanes as I live in Central Florida, including Charley, a category 4 hurricane back in 2004 with a peak intensity of 150mph. Charley struck southwestern Florida so I didn't receive a direct hit, but we had wind gusts over 100mph in my local area. Two windows in our truck were blown out from the rock parking lot of the beach side hotel we were staying at. Charley was the strongest hurricane to hit the United States since Andrew, which hit south Florida and produced catastrophic damage to homestead and surrounding areas. I hope Dr. Gray is right and we don't have to relive another above average hurricane season this year.

Sources:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2009/april2009/apr2009.pdf