2009 Hurricane Season Forecasts

Forecasters in late 2008 had originally predicted that the 2009 hurricane season would be a busy one. CNN reported back in December that storm forecasters were predicting 14 named tropical storms, with half of those named tropical storms expected to reach hurricane status. However, a recent revised 2009 hurricane season prediction by Colorado State University's hurricane team has scaled back the number of expected named storms down to 12, with 6 expected to be hurricanes. The downgraded hurricane season forecast means that we are to expect an "average" hurricane season in 2009.

The revised 2009 hurricane forecast from CSU came about due to cooler water temperatures, which do not feed the a storm's intensity as much as warmer water would. North Carolina State University (NCSU) recently issued their own hurricane forecast, one more in keeping with the initial forecasts made in December.

2009 Hurricane Season forecast - Hurricane names

According to Stormfax.com, the first dozen names on this year's list of Atlantic hurricane names include: Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erica, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, and Larry. In order to be given a name, a tropical storm must reach at least 39 miles per hour. Last year produced 16 named storms, according to the Palm Beach Daily News, and 2005 was a particularly busy year because the list of hurricane names was exhausted, causing new storms to be named via the Greek alphabet. The full list of 2009 hurricane names can be found at Stormfax.com.

2009 Hurricane Season prediction - Hurricane intensity projections

The hurricane forecasters at CSU are expecting 6 hurricanes to develop out of the 12 named storms predicted. Of those half dozen hurricanes, just two are expected to be classified as major hurricanes, meaning that their maximum wind speeds will meet the 111 miles per hour threshold to be a category 3 hurricane.

However, the hurricane forecasters at NCSU are expecting 3 to 5 named storms affecting the Gulf, with 1 to 3 of those storms potentially reaching hurricane strength winds. Of the 3 to 5 named storms, 2 to 4 of them could potentially come ashore in the Gulf either as a hurricane or a tropical storm. Furthermore, the NCSU hurricane forecasters predict that there is a 70 percent chance that at least one of the storms projected to make landfall will do so as a hurricane. The south east coast of the United States is projected to fare better, with a 45 percent chance of at least one hurricane making landfall.

Hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and runs through November 30 each year. Both CSU and NCSU are predicting at least 6 hurricanes appearing in the Atlantic in 2009. Only time will tell which forecast will ultimately prove the most accurate.

Sources:

http://www.stormfax.com/atlnames.htm
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/weather/12/10/hurricane.season.2009/index.html
http://www.palmbeachdailynews.com/news/content/news/2009/04/11/LYONS0412.html
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/2009-04-07-hurricane_N.htm
http://news.ncsu.edu/news/2009/04/tp-hurricanes.php