2009 Kentucky Derby: Picking the Winner

It's almost that time of year for the biggest horse race in thoroughbred racing, the Kentucky Derby! There are probably more schemes to pick a winner in a horse race than for all other sports. If you are only a part-time horse enthusiast, however, have no fear. There are several methods that you can use for predicting the winner and have fun at the same time! If you're going to gamble, however, realize that if there are a number of factors which can impact the outcome of the race that just aren't known ahead of time. From the weather, to field conditions, to just day-day feelings of the horses (and jockies), it can be very difficult to pick who will win the race. Whatever you do, just remember that the tracks wouldn't take bets on the races if they didn't win most of the time!

Kentucky Derby Prediction Tips

Kentucky Derby Tip #1 - The Power of Mint Juleps

If you are an absolute novice at horse race betting or predictions, enjoy a derby day tradition, the Mint Julep. Then take your racing form, open to the two pages that list the horses, close your eyes, and put your finger down on one of the pages at random. This should be your pick! Not a very scientific means to pick a horse, and you should keep this method to yourself when queried by friends and family. They will all think you're an expert handicapper!

Kentucky Derby Tip #2 - Use Your Favorite Color

My daughter uses this method for fun when we have watch horse races. If only I had listened to her picks the last time....

Kentucky Derby Tip #3 - Cool Horse Names

Similar to the Mint Julep and Color method. If you are an absolute novice, then just picking a winner based off of which horse name you think is the coolest sounding. You may just surprise yourself!

Kentucky Derby Tip #4 - Cool Jockey Names

A variation of tip #3 and it does require you to buy the program at the track. But if your absolutely stuck on who to pick, go with the coolest jockey name!

Kentucky Derby Tip #5 - Breeder's Cup Juvenile Jinx

Now this tip is not in play for the 2009 Derby, but if you're reading this in future years it will be...the Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner has never won the Kentucky Derby. The 2008 Juvenile winner, Midshipman, is hurt so he will not be racing in the 2009 Derby.

Kentucky Derby Tip #6 - Pick Geldings With Care

There have only ever been two geldings to win the Kentucky Derby (Clyde Van Dusen in 1929 and Funny Cide in 2003). Pick one to win at your own risk...I would venture to say if a Gelding is strong it would be safer to pick them to show or place.

Kentucky Derby Tip #7 - Fillies Should Be Feisty!

A Fillie hasn't won the Derby since I was 14 (Winning Colors in 1988). Only two others have ever won, Regret in 1915 and Genuine Risk in 1980. You really need to look at the race history for the past three months for any fillie you are going to pick!

Kentucky Derby Tip #8 - Post Position

There have only been two horses to ever win from the 20^th post position. Big Brown in 2008 and Clyde Van Dusen in 1929. I would instantly half any potential wager that I was looking at for a horse starting in this spot.

Kentucky Derby Tip #9 - Finishing in the Money

If you're going to pick a horse to win the derby, they should have finished in no worse than third place in their last pre-Kentucky Derby start. There have only been two horses since the mid-1950's who have won while violating this rule (Sea Hero and Thunder Gulch), and they finished in 4^th place in their last pre-Derby race.

Kentucky Derby Tip #10 - Horse Owner's Country

The largest amount of money I ever made recreationally gambling on horse racing, was when I chose the Derby winner off of the country of the owner. At the time, the Prince of Dubai had never had a horse win the derby. I had no idea on who was good and not good to bet on in the field that year, and won the bet! Not that this method is any sounder than the color or cool name method, but its fun, different, and like for me it just may pay off for you !

Refs:

http://thoroughbredchampions.com/forum/index.php?topic=29240.0

http://www.bracketcontest.com/kentucky-derby-contest/index_kentucky_derby_contest.php

http://kyderbyfan.freeservers.com/derbytheories.html

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/1625975/pick_a_winner_in_this_years_kentucky.html