2010 Baseball Hall of Fame Election: Results and Analysis

Induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame is the greatest honor that a professional baseball player can receive. Enshrinement in the Hall of Fame is reserved for the greats of the game, and only the best of the best are elected.

Elections are held for the hall every year, with voting done by sports writers who have been members of the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) for 10 years or more. A player becomes eligible for election for the first time 5 years after he has retired from the game, and 75% of the vote is needed for induction. If a player receives less than 5% of the vote, they are dropped from the ballot. A player who receives over 5% of the vote, but less than the 75% needed for induction, he remains on the ballot for future elections. A player can remain on the ballot for up to 15 years.

As I said, Hall of Fame elections happen every year, with ballots going out in December and being due on Dec 31^st. The results are released early the following year. In this year's case, the results of the 2010 election were released on January 6^th.

The ballot consisted of a number of returning candidates and several compelling candidates eligible for the first time.

The returning candidates were: Andre Dawson, Bert Blyleven, Jack Morris, Lee Smith, Tim Raines, Mark McGwire, Alan Trammell, Don Mattingly, Dave Parker, Dale Murphy, and Harold Baines.

The newly eligible candidates were: Roberto Alomar, Kevin Appier, Andy Ashby, Ellis Burks, Andres Galarraga, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Eric Karros, Ray Lankford, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Shane Reynolds, Robin Ventura, and Todd Zeile.

If you'd asked me before the election to list the eligible players in order of their worthiness for election, I'd probably have given you a top 10 that looked something like this:

1. Roberto Alomar
2. Barry Larkin
3. Bert Blyleven
4. Tim Raines
5. Mark McGwire
6. Edgar Martinez
7. Andre Dawson
8. Alan Trammell
9. Fred McGriff
10. Jack Morris

If you asked me who WOULD get elected in 2010, I'd have pointed to the top 3 on my list above as the most likely, with Andre Dawson (who got fairly close to election in 2009) as a possibility.

If you asked me which of the players above deserved election to the Hall of Fame, I'd say that 1-5 on the list were sure things, and 6-9 were borderline candidates. I'm on the fence about Martinez, Dawson, Trammell, and McGriff. I'm of the thought that Morris and the candidates I did not list don't deserve enshrinement.

So, how close was I to being correct? When the results were announced on January 6^th, it was clear I was WAY off. Only one player got the 75% required to gain enshrinement - Andre Dawson, who garnered 77.9% of the vote.

I found this very surprising, since as you can see from my list above, I consider Dawson the 7^th best candidate on the ballot. He's not a terrible selection, although he'll have the lowest OBP (On Base Percentage) of any outfielder in the Hall of Fame by a significant margin. He did a lot of other things well, though, including hit for power, run the bases well, and play good defense. Still, others were clearly more worthy.

Two other players did come incredibly close to election this year; Bert Blyleven (74.2%) and Roberto Alomar (73.7%). With these players being so close to the 75% barrier and with next year's HOF ballot featuring only one big time first-time candidate (Jeff Bagwell), I fully expect them to garner election in next year's election.

Of note, first time candidate Barry Larkin received 51.6% of the vote. No first time candidate who received over 50% of the vote has ever not eventually been elected. That bodes well for Larkin in future elections.

Flanking Larkin on the results were two returning candidates, starting pitcher Jack Morris (52.3%) and closer Lee Smith (47.3%). Both have a chance of election somewhere down the road, although they have a ways to go yet. I'm not a big advocate of either player, although they wouldn't be the worst players in the hall if they were elected.

Following Smith on the results was first time candidate Edgar Martinez with 36.2% of the vote. Martinez is a player who seems to have a somewhat galvanizing Hall of Fame case. Some see him as a clearly deserving inductee, while others see him as clearly not worthy. The fact that he played a good amount of his career as a DH (designated hitter) is one of the reasons for the stark battle lines. I consider Martinez a borderline candidate...I'm staying out of this war. I wouldn't mind seeing Martinez in the hall, but if he doesn't make it, I won't be up in arms. I will be interested to see how he fares in future elections.

Following Martinez on the list are two returning candidates that I feel are clearly very worth of election: Tim Raines and Mark McGwire. I find the fact that they received only 30.4% and 23.7% of the vote respectively the biggest outrage of the results.

Dropping off the ballot with less than 5% of the vote were Andres Galarraga (4.1%), Robin Ventura (1.3%), Ellis Burks (0.4%), Eric Karros (0.4%), Kevin Appier (0.2%), Pat Hentgen (0.2%), David Segui (0.2%), Mike Jackson 0%, Ray Lankford 0%, Shane Reynolds 0%, and Todd Zeile 0%.

So, the 2010 Hall of Fame voting was a bit of a surprise. The results not only allow us to honor a great player in Andre Dawson (he wasn't the most deserving candidate, but I still was a fan of his), but also give us a lot of insight into future elections. Best of all, it sets us up for a whole bunch of discussions, arguments, and internet flame wars about the results, and what they mean for future elections.

My early call for election in 2011? I believe Blyleven and Alomar get the few additional votes they need to make it in, and they are joined by newcomer to the ballot Jeff Bagwell.

How about you? What do you think of the 2010 results? What's your prediction for the 2011 ballot?

The Hall of Fame induction ceremony will be held on July 25^th at the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, NY.