2010 BCS Championship Preview - Alabama Vs Texas

BCS Championship Preview. Texas (13-0) vs Alabama (13-0). January 7, 2010. Pasadena, California.

Texas is going to lose this game.

Or it certainly would if games were determined by fan, pundit and Las Vegas speculation. Fortunately for the Longhorns, no amount of prognostication has ever preordained a sports outcome. And while just about everybody outside the Lone Star state is looking to the 2009 BCS Championship as an Alabama coronation, don't think for a second Colt McCoy and his Texas teammates are out of this.

There are two primary reasons why most people see an Alabama win as inevitable. The first is that Alabama bulldozed through an undeniably tougher schedule than Texas did.

Going by rankings alone, Alabama beat three teams (Florida, Virginia Tech and LSU) that are ranked ahead of Texas' highest ranked foe -- Oklahoma State (or Nebraska, depending on the poll). One can also argue that the Big 12 had one of its worst seasons of the decade as a whole. No team, other than Texas, finished the season with more than 9 wins and they combined for a total of 62 losses -- a near 6 losses per team average.

Granted, the majority of those Big 12 losses were in-conference (can't be avoided), but the Big 12 had 13 non-conference losses. The SEC only had six.

The other primary reason for Alabama's favored status was the Conference Championship games played on December 5th. #2 Alabama took on #1 Florida in the afternoon. We saw one future Heisman winner (Mark Ingram) and his teammates make a statement, while a former Heisman winner (Tim Tebow) watched the Gators' shot at a rare back-to-back title slip by the wayside before much of the final quarter had even played out.

Texas took the stage later that evening -- kick-off in Dallas coming almost a full hour after Tebow had shed is final tear under the heat of the Georgia Dome lights. College football fans and the sports media had no split attention when the Longhorns hit the field at Jerry World. So the task for Mack Brown and the University of Texas was clear -- Bama made an impressive statement against the #1 team in the country -- the Longhorns needed to look even better against the Big 12 North Division's sacrificial lamb.

Easier said than done, though, when the lamb comes equipped with a House of Spears.

Nebraska came to Dallas with a respected defense, but little else to offer prognosticators looking for an upset. The Blackshirts were expected to keep the game close for maybe the first half, but with an offense known more for calamity (see Iowa State) than statistical production, there was no way Nebraska could slow down the nation's #1 offense enough to stand a realistic chance of a win. Never mind that Bo Pelini and his brother, Carl, are defensive gurus. Nevermind that Ndamukong Suh was a quarterback-tossing monster and his line partner, Jared Crick, was no slouch either. Anything short of a three-touchdown-win might as well be a loss for Texas.

Bama, afterall, took down Florida by 19.

But instead of a case for Texas' BCS Title Game worthiness, the Big 12 Championship turned into one of the near upsets of the ages as Ndamukong Suh lept from Heisman "fantasy" to a contender with a ticket to New York in one evening. Sports Illustrated rated Suh's assault in Dallas the second best individual college football performance of the decade

Nebraska's offense did indeed look as inept as predicted -- gaining just 106 yards in 55 plays. But even so, that monster performance by Suh and (it needs to be said) the Nebraska secondary, nevertheless had the Cornhuskers ahead 12-10 with zero seconds left on the clock. But a review by instant replay officials determined that Colt McCoy's last pass went out of bounds with one second left on the clock. Enough time to let Texas kick a last-minute, season-saving field goal.

And just barely not enough (apparently) to give Brian Kelly a coronary.

So here we are. Two undefeated teams (out of five total). One with a Game of the Century domination. The other with a controversial end to a supposed inevitable beatdown. How can Texas face a defense thought to be better than Nebraska's and fend off a Heisman-winner led offense to boot?

Should we hand the Crystal Football over to the puckered lips of Nick Saban and Mark Ingram now and forget about the Pasadena road trip?

Maybe we shouldn't be so hasty.

Texas will give Alabama a better game than Florida did. While the Crimson Tide is rightfully a heavy favorite, don't read too much into those conference championship games. Texas is better than 13-12. Alabama is not quite as good as 32-13.

Texas fans should take comfort in the fact that they'll be facing only the nation's second best defense in Pasadena. They already played the best unit in the country. I know I'll catch hell for saying this, but it's Nebraska.

Alabama's scoring defense is ranked #1 nationally. Nipping at the Tide's statistical heels is Suh and the Blackshirts at #2. As I see it, Nebraska has the best defensive line in the nation -- by far. Alabama has the best linebackers -- arguably. The secondaries of both teams are about even. Suh and Crick owe Nebraska's cover guys a huge assist in letting them chase Colt McCoy around the backfield all night.

While the prolific offense of Alabama allowed its defense time on the sidelines to rest and rejuvenate, the Nebraska offense (ranked 86th nationally) was constantly putting its defense behind the eight ball -- whether it was a turnover deep in opponent territory or a slew of consecutive threes-and-out, Suh and company were simply pushed to the brink for a full 60 minutes per game. And they almost never buckled. The Virginia Tech miracle win and the Texas horse collar tackle are the rare exceptions.

Because of offense ineptitude, Nebraska's defense is the only unit to have faced more than 900 snaps all season. Alabama's defense, on the other hand, only lined up 774 times. Both Nebraska and Alabama played 13 games. And yet, in 904 snaps (130 more than Bama) Nebraska allowed just 16 touchdowns. The same as Alabama.

Penn State and Florida were the only two teams to allow fewer touchdowns (15) than Alabama and Nebraska. But, like Alabama, the Gators and Lions did it against well under 800 snaps.

So, not only has Texas already faced what I think is the nation's best defense -- the Longhorns got that unit's pinnacle performance. This is good news for Texas. They've already been fire tested and the likelihood that Bama will be able to also produce a pinnacle defensive stand in Pasadena is small. Especially since the Tide already appears to have peaked in Atlanta.

The question is, does Texas believe they already faced their stiffest defensive test or, like much of the rest of the country, were the conference championship results a sign to them of futility ahead?

If McCoy and the gang are mentally unprepared for Alabama, then an offensive breakdown against Rolando McClain and Terrence Cody could become a self-fullfilling prophecy.

But for Texans -- famous for rallying behind a valiant defeat carried out generations ago -- the phrase for Pasadena ought to be "Remember the Iron Bowl."

The November 27 battle versus hated rival, Auburn, was more in the ballpark of what the SEC championship should've looked like. The War Eagle out-yarded Alabama, held Ingram to 30 yards rushing and led the game for all but 7 minutes of the entire contest.

It was a performance tinged with the kind of zeal only found in hated rivals. The Hatfields had it for the McCoys. Seinfeld had it for Newman. The French have it for everybody else. And Auburn has it for Alabama. In spades.

Was Auburn's near upset of Bama propelled by a heightened hatred? Certainly. But intensity can't do it alone. There have been plenty of blowouts in this series. The 2009 Iron Bowl showed that undefeated Alabama is far from indestructible. A good game-plan and an overwhelming desire to win could be all it takes.

Texas will bring both to Pasadena and they'll take Bama to the mat. McCoy and Shipley will find ways to get past McClain and Cody better than they did Suh, O'Hanlon and Gomes.

But the difference will be Greg McElroy, Mark Ingram and the Bama offense. Unlike Zac Lee and the Huskers, Texas won't be getting second, third and fourth chances with this offense.

It will be close, but Texas will go down at the hands of the first truly complete team they've faced all season.

Alabama 31

Texas 27

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