2010 California U.S. Senate Primary Race Features a Vulnerable Incumbent in Boxer

California: Senate Candidates for an Opening Seat

Democratic incumbent and chief deputy whip of the Democratic majority Barbara Boxer faces in-house competition⁽¹⁾ from journalist Robert Kaus and businessman Brian Quintana. On the Republican side, she is being challenged by economist Tom Campbell, assembly member Chuck DeVore and businesspersons Carly Fiorina and Al Ramirez.

Other contenders - who are unlikely to eclipse Mrs. Boxer - come from the American Independent Party, the Green Party, Libertarians, Independents and the Peace and Freedom Party.

2010 California Primary Race Highlights the Detriment of Partisanship

As outlined by GovTrack⁽²⁾ - a site dedicated to the preservation of government transparency - Sen. Boxer is well known for her staunch partisanship but nevertheless has a solid 46 percent approval rating among voters. It was this understanding of partisanship that made the Los Angeles Times' refusal to endorse Sen. Boxer an interesting setup.

While lambasting⁽³⁾ her as displaying "less intellectual firepower or leadership than she could" and showcasing "lockstep liberalism," the L.A. Times stops short of giving any of her challengers the thumbs-up.

The Independent Vote to Speak Loudly in the California June Primary ... and Beyond

As an independent, I must agree with the L.A. Times' evaluation of the California senate race. Nevertheless, loyal partisans are sure to not vote against the grand dame of the Democratic Party, and the odds are good that - left of center - her victory is assured. On the right side of the aisle, not one candidate emerges as the golden child.

Polling done by Rasmussen⁽⁴⁾ shows that Barbara Boxer is likely to only receive about 43 percent of the vote when compared to the candidates nipping at her heels. Carly Fiorina presents with 38 percent, while Chuck Devore makes a respectable showing with 39 percent.

Perhaps the golden boy in this race will be Tom Campbell with a projected 41 percent. Depending on the outcome of the California June primary, the voice of the independent voter is likely to be heard loud and clear, especially come November.

A Shakeup in the California Senate?

Sen. Boxer's inability to put a sizable distance between herself and the top three Republican contenders is troublesome for Democrats. While true-blue Republicans are likely to vote for Chuck DeVore (only to see him lose out to Tom Campbell), they will be able to grit their teeth and pick Campbell in November.

The same holds true for independent voters who sour at the thought of hyper-partisanship. Of course, Sen. Barbara Boxer has not held on to her seat for so long without having an ace or two up her sleeve. As the California senate race continues to turn up the heat on partisan rhetoric, her supporters are eagerly at work to discredit the Republican competition.

Sources

⁽¹⁾California Secretary of State. "Official Certified List of Candidates, pages 26-28" (accessed May 7, 2010)
⁽²⁾GovTrack. "Sen. Barbara Boxer [D-CA]" (accessed May 7, 2010)
⁽³⁾Los Angeles Times. "Choosing not to choose" (accessed May 7, 2010)
⁽⁴⁾Rasmussen. "Election 2010: California Senate" (accessed May 7, 2010)