2010 College Football Bowl Picks
Oregon and Auburn Face Each Other in the BCS Championship -- a Preview of that Game and More
New Mexico Bowl
December 18, Albuquerque, NM
Brigham Young Cougars (6-6) vs. Texas-El Paso Miners (6-6)
A disappointing season for BYU which had won 10 or more games in each of the last 4 seasons coming into 2010. UTEP is just happy to be here.
The Cougars and Miners come to Albuquerque with matching records but with opposite trajectories in getting to New Mexico. BYU has won 5 of their last 7, falling just a point shy of upsetting Utah. UTEP finished their regular season on a 1-5 skid. The Cougars' good luck should continue as they bring a solid running game against a not-so-solid rush defense.
BYU 31 UTEP 20
Airs 2:00 PM ET on ESPN
Humanitarian Bowl
December 18, Boise, ID
Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3)
Northern Illinois had a Cinderella season of sorts until getting upended by Miami of Ohio in the MAC Championship. Fresno State owns a worse record than the Huskies, but the Bulldogs got their 8 wins while competing in a tougher conference.
Both teams played Illinois and -- while the old saying about transitive comparisons mean nothing in college football may be true -- I happen to believe that the Bulldogs' win vs. the Illini and the Huskies' loss says a lot.
Fresno State 35 Northern Illinois 21
Airs 5:30 PM ET on ESPN
New Orleans Bowl
December 18, New Orleans, LA
Troy Trojans (7-5) vs. Ohio Bobcats (8-4)
Since Frank Solich's arrival at Athens, Ohio, the Bobcats have become an overnight competitor in the MAC conference, compiling two 9-win seasons in 4 years with a third in reach in New Orleans. Even the mascot has taken on the fighting spirit after the Bobcat beaned Ohio State's Buckeye in an early match this year.
Troy has become a perennial player in the Sun Belt Conference thanks largely to the Trojans' willingness to take on BCS big boys such as Oklahoma State and South Carolina this year. Troy very nearly upended a very good OSU in Stillwater.
I like Troy's big game experience to pay off against the plucky fighting Frank Soliches.
Troy 35 Ohio 24
Airs 9:00 PM on ESPN
St. Petersburg Bowl
December 21, St Petersburg, FL
Louisville Cardinals (6-6) vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (8-4)
Louisville made it to bowl eligibility by the skin of their teeth. Southern Mississippi blasted its way to a third-place finish in Conference USA (a league arguably as tough as the Big East this year). The Golden Eagles bring the 15th-ranked scoring offense in the country to St. Petersburg.
I like Southern Miss to get ahead early and keep their feet on the gas.
Southern Miss 42 Louisville 28
Airs 8:00 PM on ESPN
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas
December 22, Las Vegas, NV
Utah Utes (10-2) vs. Boise State Broncos (11-1)
A pair of would-be BCS busters arrive in Las Vegas with late-season disappointments. The Broncos spent much of the season inside the BCS Top 3 until getting upended by recent WAC juggernaut, Nevada, in a showdown of near unbeatens. Utah has impressively compiled their 5th ten-plus win season of the last decade. But the Utes have been far from dominant this year. Boise State is wounded, angry and, frankly, better than Utah.
Boise State 40 Utah 28
Airs 8:00 PM on ESPN
Poinsettia Bowl
December 23, San Diego, CA
San Diego State Aztecs (8-4) vs. Navy Midshipmen (8-3)
Strangely one of the better match-ups of the bowl season. San Diego State and Navy haven't received much notoriety in a season that was obsessed with BCS busting, but both teams have quietly put together stellar runs including some near-misses vs. a slew of noteworthy foes. The Aztecs lost to Missouri by 3, TCU by 5 and Utah by 4. Navy dropped a game to Maryland by 3 points and Air Force by 8 while pounding Notre Dame and East Carolina elsewhere in the season.
San Diego State brings a little more fire power to this match. A team that can hang with TCU ought to keep the Midshipmen in check.
San Diego State 35 Navy 24
Airs 8:00 PM on ESPN
Hawaii Bowl
December 24, Honolulu HI
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9-3) vs. Hawaii Warriors (10-3)
Two Top 10 offenses square off. Hawaii averages 39.9 points per game. Tulsa -- 39.7 The defenses should be the deciding factor here. The Warrior's D is slightly better than the Golden Hurricane's.
Hawaii 38 Tulsa 34
Airs 8:00 PM on ESPN
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
December 26, Detroit, MI
Florida International Golden Panthers (6-6) vs. Toledo Rockets (8-4)
This may seem like a no-brainer. An 8-win MAC team vs. a Sun Belt Team with a .500 record. But the Golden Panthers went 6-2 in league play after starting the year against 4 BCS conference foes -- Rutgers, Texas A&M, Maryland and Pittsburgh. FIU went 0-4 against that slate, but very nearly pulled off a huge upset in College Station.
Toledo, meanwhile got waxed against similar competition such as Arizona. Should be an interesting battle. I like Florida International in the upset.
Florida International 31 Toledo 28
Airs at 8:30 PM ET on ESPN
Independence Bowl
December 27, Shreveport, LA
Air Force Falcons (8-4) vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-6)
What do you have as the over-under for number of pass attempts for this game? I'm not sure I'd take more than 20 combined.
The number 1 rush offense takes on the number 2 rush offense in Shreveport. I like Georgia Tech's BCS conference experience to give them an edge over the Falcons.
Georgia Tech 28 Air Force 24
Airs at 5:00 PM ET on ESPN
Champs Sports Bowl
December 28, Orlando, FL
West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3) vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack (8-4)
An overtime loss to Connecticut sends the Big East's best team to Orlando in late December instead of Glendale in January. The Mountaineers had a brutal October -- dropping back-to-back games to teams they really should have beaten. North Carolina State, meanwhile, tied for third in the ACC thanks to a stunning midseason comeback against conference runner-up, Florida State.
If the Wolfpack can find the same magic to use against West Virginia, they've got a great chance of winning the Champs Bowl. But I like West Virginia with the nation's second-ranked scoring defense to keep NC State in check most of the night.
West Virginia 17 North Carolina State 10
Airs at 6:30 PM ET on ESPN
Insight Bowl
December 28, Tempe, AZ
Missouri Tigers (10-2) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5)
Missouri failed to make the Big 12 Championship, finishing second in the Big 12 North to Nebraska, but the Tigers get the last laugh as they beat the Huskers in bowl selection. All in all, an excellent season for Missouri who may have the best quarterback in the conference.
Iowa had visions of a Top 10 finish and maybe even a Big 10 championship before the season started. At 7-5, 2010 has proved to be a considerable letdown for those in Iowa City.
The Insight Bowl will remarkably be the first match between these boarder schools in 100 years. Hard to believe. Hopefully the Hawkeyes won't have to wait another 100 years to avenge this upcoming loss.
Missouri 31 Iowa 17
Airs 10:00 PM ET on ESPN
Military Bowl
December, 29, Washington DC
East Carolina Pirates (6-6) vs. Maryland Terrapins (8-4)
East Carolina may have the worst defense in the country. How the pirates managed to win six games to become bowl eligible is, I suppose, a real testament to their offense. But when Navy hangs 76 point on your defense and Rice puts up 62, you've got some issues.
Maryland doesn't have to be world-beaters to take out the Pirates. A good thing, too, because the Terrapins aren't.
Maryland 45 East Carolina 28
Airs at 2:30 PM ET on ESPN
Texas Bowl
December 29, Houston, TX
Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) vs. Baylor Bears (7-5)
Perennial Big 12 doormat enjoys its first and only winning season in league play. Robert Griffin makes the difference here.
Baylor 31 Illinois 24
Airs at 6:00 PM ET on ESPN
Alamo Bowl
December 29, San Antonio, TX
Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-2) vs. Arizona Wildcats (7-5)
After a 7-1 start to the season that included a 34-27 win over a then Top 10 Iowa, Arizona has hit the skids. Big time. I don't see things getting much better against an Oklahoma State team that throws up nearly 45 points per game. The Cowboys put up 41 points against Nebraska's vaunted D, they should have no trouble against the Wildcats.
But Nick Foles should keep things interesting against a Cowboy defense that is itself nothing special.
Oklahoma State 42 Arizona 35
Airs at 9:15 PM ET on ESPN
Armed Forces Bowl
December 30, Dallas, TX
Army Black Knights (6-5) vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs (7-6)
Army makes it to bowl eligibility to give the Armed Forces Bowl a proper participant. But the Black Knights struggle mightily against teams with a pulse. And the Mustangs have a pulse for the first time in 25 years.
Southern Methodist 38 Army 21
Airs at NOON ET on ESPN
Pinstripe Bowl
December 30, Bronx, NY
Kansas State Wildcats (7-5) vs. Syracuse Orangemen (7-5)
Bill Snyder's reward for bringing his beloved Wildcats back from the abyss? A trip to the Bronx in December. Oh yeah.
Kansas State's defense seems to have evaporated since opening the year 4-0, but Syracuse's 99th ranked scoring offense isn't something to particularly fear. Wildcats roll.
Kansas State 42 Syracuse 28
Airs at 3:20 EST on ESPN
Music City Bowl
December 30, Nashville, TN
North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (6-6)
If you squint really hard toward the collegiate gridiron horizon you might conceivably imagine North Carolina vs. Tennessee as a National Championship match-up one day. In the crystal clear present, on the other hand, these are two pretty bad teams going at each other in Nashville.
But Tennessee comes in on a four-win hot streak. Throw in the memory of taking LSU to the wire and what will likely be home-crowd ratios, I like the Vols over the Tarheels.
Tennessee 28 North Carolina 21
Airs at 6:40 PM ET on ESPN
Holiday Bowl
December 30, San Diego, CA
Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-3) vs. Washington Huskies (6-6)
Did the fine folks in San Diego bother to look at the schedules for these two teams when they sent out invitations? Because I'm not sure how a rematch of a 56-21 Nebraska beat down in Seattle sells many tickets.
Granted, Washington is on a 3 game hot streak while Nebraska has dropped 2 of its last 4 contests. Nevermind that Nebraska's losses were to Fiesta and Cotton Bowl bound teams, both of whom the Huskers had a chance to beat to the very end, the fact is, with Taylor Martinez still hobbling, Nebraska just isn't the same squad that destroyed the Huskies on their home turf. And rematches tend to favor the team that got beat the first go around.
But don't kid yourself. Nebraska has this game in the bag. The only struggle for the Huskers will be to match the 56 points they laid down the first time. They won't, but the Cornhuskers still win this one comfortably.
Nebraska 38 Washington 14
Airs at 10:00 PM ET on ESPN
Meineke Car Care Bowl
December 31, Charlotte, NC
South Florida Bulls (7-5) vs. Clemson Tigers (6-6)
It may be hard to remember in the wake of Clemson's 6 losses on the season, but in late September, the Tigers very nearly altered the course of the 2010 season by jumping out to a 17-3 halftime lead over Auburn. Cam Newton and the Auburn Tigers would eventually claw their way back and take the match into overtime where a dropped Clemson TD pass and a field goal eliminated by a penalty sealed CU's loss.
Why am I dwelling on this particular loss? Because I think Clemson is a heck of a lot better than their record indicates and, by extension, much better than South Florida.
Clemson 31 South Florida 17
Airs at NOON ET on ESPN
Sun Bowl
December 31, El Paso, TX
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-5) vs. Miami Hurricanes (7-5)
Remember those epic Catholics vs. Convicts matches of the late 1980s?
Yep, the Irish are still Catholic while Miami's ex-coach, Randy Shannon, did much to remove the convicts from "da U". With ten losses between them, this Miami/Notre Dame battle will be far from epic. But it is a nice flash back to the days of stone-washed jeans and Milli Vanilli.
Brian Kelly has already taken the Irish several steps forward while Miami is in yet another state of flux.
Notre Dame 24 Miami 20
Airs at 2:00 PM ET on CBS
Liberty Bowl
December 31, Memphis, TN
Georgia Bulldogs (6-6) vs. Central Florida Knights (10-3)
With the absence of AJ Green, Georgia's offense was nearly nonexistent in the first half of the season as the Bulldogs opened with a jaw-dropping 1-4 record. Green's return to the team opened an onslaught of scoring, helping the Bulldogs finish on a 5-2 run.
Is there anyway Central Florida can take Green out before he takes the field in Memphis? Probably in no legal capacity.
Central Florida may have a fancy-schmansy double-digit win record. But they don't have AJ Green.
Georgia 28 Central Florida 21
Airs at 3:30 PM ET on ESPN
Chick-fil-A Bowl
December 31, Atlanta, GA
South Carolina Gamecocks (9-4) vs. Florida State Seminoles (9-4)
SEC runner-up vs. ACC runner-up. Perhaps we should gloss-over the fact that both of these teams ended the regular season shellacked by their conference champions. Whatever the case, both of these teams were fantastic against Florida.
The Seminoles and Gamecocks have run hot and cold the whole season, making this game fairly unpredictable. Do both teams show up and make it a Chick-fil-A Bowl to remember? Does one or the other show up and make it forgettable? Who knows? Just consider that before South Carolina suffered the most embarrassing SEC Championship loss in SEC Championship history, the Gamecocks took that same Auburn team to the wire in September.
All bets are off, but I'm giving the SEC runner-up a slight advantage over the ACC representative.
South Carolina 24 Florida State 21
Airs at 7:30 PM EST on ESPN
TicketCity Bowl
January 1, Dallas, TX
Northwestern Wildcats (7-5) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5)
The Wildcats and Red Raiders both took care of business in non-conference play only to get pummeled in league action. Tech's offense has looked downright anemic in coach Tuberville's debut season compared to the Leach-era. But Northwestern's offense has been even less impressive. Tech should handle the Wildcats.
Texas Tech 35 Northwestern 21
Airs at NOON ET on ESPN-U
Outback Bowl
January 1, Tampa, FL
Florida Gators (7-5) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-5)
The most dominant program of the last 15 years takes on one of the most dominant programs of all time. But neither team looked particularly dominant in 2010 as Tim Tebow is sorely missed in Gainsville and Joe Paterno is sorely not missed in Happy Valley.
Paterno's 400 wins at Penn State are nothing short of incredible but with one of the most lackluster offenses in Division I, Penn State could use a little fresh blood.
What does this mean for the Outback Bowl? Toss up. I think it will be a low-scoring affair, but the Gators rally around their outgoing coach.
Florida 17 Penn State 14
Airs at 1:00 PM ET on ABC
Capital One Bowl
January 1, Orlando, FL
Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) vs. Michigan State Spartans (11-1)
Last year's National Champion takes on a Michigan State team enjoying its best run since back-to-back seasons in 1965 and 1966 produced 19 wins, 1 loss and 1 tie.
Bama is a disappointing 4-3 in their last 7 games. But two of those losses were to Top 10 teams including a 1-point heartbreaker against Auburn.
I like the Tide to handle the Big 10 co-champs in Orlando with surprising ease.
Alabama 35 Michigan State 17
Airs at 1 PM EST on ESPN
Gator Bowl
January 1, Jacksonville, FL
Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) vs. Michigan Wolverines (7-5)
The Wolverines are back playing in January and, like the blustery temperatures in Ann Arbor, Rich Rodriguez's hotseat should be cooled for a while. Unless Michigan loses in Jacksonville.
Mississippi State had tough going in the Nation's best conference division. 8 wins on the year is nothing short of remarkable. Unfortunately for Michigan, the Bulldogs don't carry enough cache in college football name-wise to make a loss here a moral victory.
Rodriguez will be back on the hotseat January 2nd.
Mississippi State 31 Michigan 21
Airs at 1:30 PM ET on ESPN2
Rose Bowl
January 1, Pasadena, CA
Wisconsin Badgers (11-1) vs. Texas Christian Horned Frogs (12-0)
A sort of National Championship runners-up game. Should be a fantastic match-up as the Badgers have looked virtually unstoppable in all but a handful of games this year. TCU needed to rely on a loss by Oregon or Auburn to make it to the main stage that, unfortunately for the Frogs, never came. But at least Boise State's loss prevents another non-automatic-qualifier BCS bowl.
One of the nation's best scoring offense takes on the nation's best scoring defense. What's not to love about this, really?
This game's a toss-up, but I'm going with TCU on the strength of that D.
TCU 31 Wisconsin 28
Airs at 5:00 PM ET on ESPN
Fiesta Bowl
January 1, Glendale, AZ
Oklahoma Sooners (11-2) vs. Connecticut Huskies (8-4)
There really isn't a whole lot to analyze here. This isn't basketball. While UCONN's magical rally to win the Big East may be inspiring in a sort of Mr.-Smith-Goes-to-Washington-let's-all-root-for-the-little-guy sort of way (especially for a program that's only been Division I for 9 seasons), the Fiesta Bowl won't have a Capraesque happy ending for the Huskies.
The traditional power football school shows the traditional power basketball school the cold, harsh doorknob of reality.
Oklahoma 52 UCONN 13
Airs at 8:30 PM ET on ESPN
Orange Bowl
January 3, Miami, FL
Stanford Cardinal (11-1) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2)
After starting the season 0-2 with a stunning loss to James Madison, the Hokies' 11-0 run is perhaps equally stunning. Or maybe that says something about the quality of competition in the ACC whose name-brand has taken a beating over the last 5 seasons or so. The Pac-10 has not looked much better this year as the conference looks to have fielded two quality teams this year.
Virginia Tech's slate has been tougher than Stanford's, in my opinion. And a check of the win-margin's suggest the Hokies have been winning more convincingly than Stanford as well. Still, should be an excellent contest.
Virginia Tech 30 Stanford 27
Airs at 8:30 PM ET on ESPN
Sugar Bowl
January 4, New Orleans, LA
Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2)
Both of this year's Sugar Bowl reps have looked excellent this year -- Ohio State vs. Miami and Penn State -- Arkansas vs. South Carolina and LSU -- and both have looked awful -- Ohio State vs. Wisconsin and Arkansas vs. Auburn.
Ryan Mallet has shown a capability of shredding some of the best secondaries in the country, but Ohio State may have the best pass defenders Arkansas has seen all year. I think that (and Terrelle Pryor's feet) will be the difference in this match of two up-and-down teams.
Ohio State 28 Arkansas 21
Airs at 8:30 PM ET on ESPN
GoDaddy.com Bowl
January 6, Mobile, AL
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (6-6) vs. Miami (Ohio) Red Hawks (9-4)
Will you tune in to see the Blue Raiders take on the Red Hawks? Or will you actually be checking in to see what is sure to be a bosom parade during the sponsor's advertisements? At any rate, the MAC champs should be able to handle the Blue Raiders. But who really knows?
Miami 30 Middle Tennessee 27
Airs at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN
Cotton Bowl
January 7, Arlington, TX
LSU Tigers (10-2) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (9-3)
BBVA Compass Bowl
January 8, Birmingham, AL
Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (6-6)
It used to be that the later a bowl was played, the more important it was to the college football landscape. Not so much anymore.
I see Pittsburgh winning this battle of teams with as many losses as the ten BCS Bowl participants combined.
Pittsburgh 28 Kentucky 17
Airs at NOON ET on ESPN
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
January 9, San Francisco, CA
Nevada Wolf Pack (12-1) vs. Boston College Eagles (7-5)
Nevada busts the BCS Buster. The best season in Nevada football history should have probably been rewarded with something a little more illustrious than the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. As it is, Chris Ault's Pistol offense should have no trouble shooting down the Eagles of Boston.
Nevada 45 Boston College 28
Airs at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN
BCS Championship
January 10, Glendale, AZ
Oregon Ducks (12-0) vs. Auburn Tigers (13-0)
Through an influx of money from a wealthy alum and some excellent coaching hires, Oregon has built an incredible program over the last 15 to 20 seasons. While USC dominated the Pac-10 mid-decade, Oregon quietly waited in the wings as easily the second-best program in the conference. With USC sanctioned back to mediocrity, the Ducks have taken the mantel with gusto and find themselves in a National Title match for the first time in school history.
Auburn is no Johnny-come-lately to national prominence, although the highest success has eluded the program for decades since winning the AP Title in 1957. Auburn had undefeated seasons in 1993 and 2004, however, probation kept the Tigers out of Title contention in the first of those seasons and a glut of undefeated teams had them on the outside looking in in the latter season.
2010 nearly became another asterisk for the Tigers as controversy swirled around their otherworldly quarterback, Cam Newton. Newton and the University appear to be cleared of wrong-doing for the moment.
The SEC conference is poised to bring home a stunning 5th consecutive National Title under the strength of a remarkable four separate programs. An Auburn win will send the already colossal levels of SEC boosterism into the stratosphere of obnoxiousness. That and the taint of impropriety ought to be reason enough to root against the Tigers.
The Ducks bring the nation's #1 scoring offense and a Top 15 defense to the fight. Auburn's 43 points per game are good enough for 6th best in the country. The Tiger defense has not put up as dominating results as Oregon's, but there is no overlooking the disparity in schedules. Auburn has six wins over ranked teams. Oregon has two. Auburn has seven wins over teams with winning records. Oregon has just three.
Oregon will give a valiant effort in Glendale, but Auburn beats the Ducks in overtime.
Auburn 38 Oregon 31
Airs at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN
Published by Mark Albracht
Mark is a professional screenwriter and filmmaker and Yahoo! Contributor Network's intrepid college football historian and illustrator. You can watch some of his film handiwork at Babelgum.com -- http://www.... View profile
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5 Comments
Post a CommentAlso, FYI, if you click the print page, you get the whole thing on one page.
I don't pick the page numbers, G. Associated Content does.
Why would you make an 11 page online article? Scroll bars and mouse wheels have been around quite a long time.
Ugh, that should read "they should be the victors".
My apologies to LSU and Texas A&M fans. Looks like I forgot to make a Cotton Bowl prediction. A&M finished out the year on an excellent note beating both Oklahoma and Nebraska, but I think the Aggies benefited greatly from Sooner and Husker miscues. If LSU plays relatively error-free, they should be the victories in a low-scoring slugfest. LSU 21 Texas A&M 17.