2010 Men's NCAA Basketball Tournament: National Semi-Finals Preview and Prediction - Butler V. Michigan State

Butler advanced to the National Semi-Finals by upsetting Kansas State 63-56 for the West Region title, while Michigan State qualified by defeating Tennessee 70-69 for the Midwest Region crown.

Butler 63 - Kansas State 56

In my preview of this game, I correctly predicted that Butler would upset Kansas State. The Bulldogs dominated the first half, in which they outscored the Wildcats 27-20. Early in the half, Butler maintained a one to two point lead over Kansas State, before jumping out to an 11 point lead at 21-10. During the final six minutes of the half, the Wildcats took advantage of a couple of cold stretches by the Bulldogs to close the gap to seven points at half time.

Butler remained scoreless for the first three minutes of the second half, during which time Kansas cut the lead to two points, 27-25. At that point, the Bulldogs revived and jumped out to 10 point lead, 46-36, with a little over eight minutes to play. With 4:49 remaining in the game, the Wildcats took the lead, 52-51, after a three-pointer by Denis Clemente. Butler regained the lead, 54-52, off three free throws by Gordon Hayward and Matt Howard, before Clemente tied it at 54-54.

For the next three minutes, the Bulldogs held Kansas State scoreless, while scoring nine of their own, to make the score 63-54. Jacob Pullen scored two points in the last nine seconds for the Wildcats for the final score of 63-56.

Gordon Haywood led Butler's winning effort with 22 points and 9 rebounds, followed by Shelvin Mack with 16 points and 7 rebounds. Although Wildcat guards Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen scored 18 and 14 points, respectively, they faced a tough defensive challenge from their Bulldog counterparts, Ronald Nored and Willie Veasley, which contributed to Butler's win.

Tennessee 69 - Michigan State 70

In my preview of this game, I correctly predicted that Michigan State would defeat Tennessee. Playing in their first Elite Eight game, the Volunteers quickly gained a three point lead over the Spartans, 11-8, in the first three minutes of play. After eight minutes, Michigan claimed a two point lead, 21-19, before Tennessee went ahead 30-24, its largest lead of the game, with eight minutes left in the half. Although the Spartans failed to claim the lead again before the end of the half, they tied twice at 32 all with six minutes to play, and then at 37 all with less than two minutes to play, before the half ended in the Volunteers' favor, 41-39.

In the first five minutes of the second half, Michigan State outscored Tennessee 11-9 to tie the game at 50 each. After trading baskets, 51-51, the Spartans jumped out to their largest lead of the game, 59-51, following a free-throw by Draymond Green, with 11:42 left to play. Within the next four minutes, however, Michigan State gave up six unanswered points, as the Volunteers cut the lead to two points, at 59-57. With a little over six minutes left, Tennessee went ahead 62-61, only to see Michigan State go back out in front, 69-66, with less than three minutes to go.

In the last 2:40 to play, Spartans failed to score, during which time, the Volunteers tied the score, 69-69. With less than two seconds left, Michigan State took the lead, 70-69, on a free-throw by Raymar Morgan. Morgan purposely missed the second free-throw, which resulted in a defensive round by Brian Williams to give Tennessee the ball and one last shot. J.P. Prince, who bobbled the inbound pass from Wayne Chism, launched an unsuccessful three-pointer from beyond half-court, which if had swished through the net, would have given the Volunteers a 72-70 win and their first trip to the Final Four.

Michigan State beat Tennessee at the foul line, hitting 16 of 21 (76%) to 14 of 21 (66%); otherwise the Volunteers topped the Spartans in field goals, 24 of 47 (51%) to 24 of 52 (46%) and three-point shots 7 of 16 (44%) and 6 of 18 (33%).

Prediction: Michigan State over Butler

Throughout the tournament, Michigan State has yet to overwhelm an opponent, besides their seven point victory over Northern Iowa, the Spartans have won by no more than three points. Their ability to win speaks to the coaching of Tom Izzo, whose teams have performed almost flawlessly in the late stages of tournaments past and present. Butler comes in as a hometown, sentimental favorite, of course, but expect Final Four experience to prevail over innocence.

References:

ESPN, Butler 63 - Kansas State 56, ESPN Men's Basketball

ESPN, Tennessee 69 - Michigan State 70, ESPN Men's Basketball

Adam Hornbuckle, 2010 Men's NCAA Basketball Tournament: Midwest Region Final - Preview and Prediction, Associated Content

Adam Hornbuckle, 2010 Men's NCAA Basketball Tournament: West Region Final - Preview and Prediction, Associated Content