2010 MLB Rookie Profile: Detroit Tigers CF Austin Jackson

When Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski traded all-stars Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson in the offseason, he did it with an eye towards bringing young, cheap talent into the organization. Pitchers Max Scherzer, Phil Coke, and Daniel Schlereth all figure to be key members of the Tigers for the next few years. However, when the Tigers take the field to being their 2010 campaign, all eyes will likely be on new centerfielder Austin Jackson, the 23 year old slated to replace Curtis Granderson. If Jackson wins the job, he'll not only deal with the usual pressure of being a rookie playing everyday for a team hoping to contend for the playoffs, but he'll also have the added pressure of stepping in for one of the more popular Detroit athletes in recent memory. We'll look at Jackson's minor league history with the Yankees, and see what Tigers fans should expect from the 23 year old Jackson in 2010.

The Yankees thought very highly of Austin Jackson's athleticism when they drafted him in the 8th round of the 2005 amateur draft. A two-sport athlete who was also a gifted basketball player, Jackson took an $800,000 bonus to forgo his commitment to Georgia Tech and join the Yankees' organization (the bonus was at the time the highest ever for an 8th round pick). Jackson played fairly well as a teenager in the low minors in 2005 and 2006, but it was his 2007 season which brought him national acclaim as a prospect. As a 20 year old splitting time between Class A Charleston and Class A+ Tampa, Austin Jackson had a terrific season in which he hit for a .304 batting average and 13 home runs in 128 games. He also added 33 stolen bases and 48 walks, delivering a well-rounded 2007 performance in which he earned an .846 OPS. Jackson entered the following season as Baseball America's #41 prospect in the country, and he spent 2008 in Class AA Trenton building on his previous success, hitting .285 with 9 home runs in 131 games. Baseball America moved him up to #36 in their rankings before the 2009 season, and they also recognized him as the Yankees' #1 prospect. He was promoted to Class AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, and he once again hit .300, this time with 4 home runs in 132 games. In every full season he's had as a pro, Jackson has drawn at least 40 walks, and he has stolen 124 bases in his career with a success rate of 78%, which is above average.

However, Tigers fans will be less interested in what Jackson has already done with the Yankees' minor league affiliates, and far more interested to see what he brings to the Tigers' major league club in 2010. While it is never an exact science to project major league production from a player's minor league resume, it is possible to examine a player's tools and more advanced statistics to get a rough estimation of what to expect. But either way, if Austin Jackson is going to keep his job as the Tigers' centerfielder, he will have to be a solid and consistent defender. While the departed Granderson was not necessarily a gold-glover, he was an above-average fielder with the speed to run down balls that the older corner outfielders like Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen could not. Jackson will have to quickly adjust to the outfield of Comerica Park, or risk losing his job to players with more major league experience, like Ryan Raburn and Clete Thomas. However, centerfield requires a solid throwing arm and very good speed, and Austin Jackson certainly has those attributes. Jackson has the superior athleticism that one might expect from a potential college basketball player. As a result, most believe that for Jackson to be successful as a defender, it is simply a matter of staying consistent and adjusting to his new surroundings, hurdles which every rookie must clear. MLB.com described him as such: "He has speed with some ability to steal a few bases and is good defensively in center with above-average range and a good arm." Scranton hitting coach Butch Wynegar stated, "There's nothing about Austin - defense, arm, base running, nothing - that gives me any doubts that he's going to be a good player one day," although later expressing fears that he might not be "there" yet. Either way, the onus is on Jackson to translate his tools to Comerica's center field when April arrives.

At the plate, expecting Jackson to fill Granderson's shoes is likely a bit unrealistic. In his all-star 2009 campaign, Curtis Granderson hit 30 home runs. Austin Jackson has hit 30 total home runs in 565 career minor league games. While more optimistic scouts predict that Jackson will add power as his body develops, it clearly isn't there yet. On the other hand, Granderson also had well-documented issues with making contact, as his average dipped to a meager .249 last season. Coming off a .300 season in AAA, Jackson seems capable of improving on that mark. However, Jackson hasn't always had the easiest time making contact either. In his four full seasons as a minor leaguer, Jackson has struck out 496 times in 525 games, with 123 Ks in 2009. The CHONE projection system predicts that Jackson will hit .265 with a .320 OBP and .387 SLG in 2009, which would give him a below average .707 OPS. The Bill James projection system is far more optimistic, projecting a .294/.356/.411/.767 line for Jackson, which would be above league average. These projections are notoriously inaccurate (as any attempt to project a minor leaguer's major league performance will inevitably be), but splitting the difference can give an observer a general idea.

However, it is important to remember that the Tigers are a defense-oriented team, with specialist SS Adam Everett and C Gerald Laird starting despite awful offensive seasons in 2009. Also, the signing of Johnny Damon puts much less pressure on Jackson to hit as he might have had otherwise. While the fans will miss their 30 home run all-star of a year ago, Austin Jackson has a fairly good chance to hit around .280, field well, and emulate another departed Tigers' all-star: Placido Polanco.

Minor league stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Prospect rankings can be found on baseballamerica.com.