2010 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Predictions

After two rounds of upsets and surprisingly close games, the Sweet Sixteen was going to be different. The higher seeds were supposed to take over these games, with only a couple of games being a toss-up. Much like the first two rounds, however, the Sweet Sixteen had some exciting games and another number one seed falling.

Here are my predictions for the four games coming up in the Elite Eight (all times given are Eastern Standard Time):

(5) Michigan State vs. (6) Tennessee

Sunday, March 28, 2:20 P.M.

Going into Friday's game against Northern Iowa, most people were counting Michigan State out because they were going to be without star guard Kalin Lucas and facing off against a defense that was able to stop Kansas' offense. What people forgot to ask was if Northern Iowa would be able to handle Michigan State's defense. Michigan State struggled to find their shot against the Panthers, but the Spartans were able to grab eleven more rebounds en route to their 59-52 victory. Now in the Elite Eight, it'll be tough for the Spartans to keep up this level of play without Lucas, especially facing a Tennessee squad that has shown that it can beat even the best teams.

The Tennessee Volunteers may have only won by three over Ohio State, but it kept them in the tournament and shows that their wins versus Kansas and Kentucky during the season were not a fluke. What's even more impressive is that Tennessee was able to win despite having more turnovers than Ohio State and giving up 31 points to Evan Turner. I expect Tennessee to come out swinging against a banged up Michigan State squad and advance further into the 2010 NCAA Tournament.

Elite Eight Prediction: Tennessee 72, Michigan State 65

(5) Butler vs. (2) Kansas State

Saturday, March 27, 4:30 P.M.

I'm not sure if Butler's surprising win over Syracuse wasn't predicted because of underestimating Butler or overestimating Syracuse, but the one thing that we know is that Butler is in the Elite Eight and Syracuse is not. Butler's defense was stifling against the Orange, and errors forced by the Bulldogs' defense led to the Orange making quite a few unforced errors as well. Butler's going to have to ramp up their offense a little bit in order to beat Kansas State, however. Despite Syracuse committing eleven more turnovers than the Bulldogs, Butler still only won by four points and shot 40.4% from the field. Butler's defense has almost singlehandedly propelled them to all of their 2010 NCAA Tournament victories, and they're going to need it against a very athletic Kansas State team.

Looking at this matchup, it's tough not to think that Kansas State will dominate the disciplined but less athletic Butler squad. Kansas State, however, will be coming off an exciting double overtime Sweet Sixteen victory over Xavier and could be tired after having a very long night. In addition, Butler has a ton of momentum after knocking off the top seeded Syracuse squad. If Kansas State can rattle the Butler defense early and finish with around a 45% or higher field goal percentage, it should be an easy win for the Wildcats. If Kansas State loses their shooting touch or can't overcome the Butler defense, however, we'll be looking at a Final Four appearance for the Butler Bulldogs.

Elite Eight Prediction: Kansas State 65, Butler 61

(1) Kentucky vs. (2) West Virginia

Saturday, March 27, 7:05 P.M.

The Kentucky Wildcats have looked like the best team in the country so far in the 2010 NCAA Tournament. Kentucky rolled through the first three rounds, outscoring their opponents by an average of 25 points, and is coming off a dominant 62-45 victory over a highly underrated Cornell squad. Although Kentucky struggled on offense against the Big Red, the Wildcats' defense held Cornell to a meager 33.3% from the field. Although Kentucky's Elite Eight opponent, West Virginia, is a very talented squad, Kentucky has shown no signs that anyone can stop them so far in the 2010 NCAA Tournament, and I doubt the Mountaineers will be the ones to knock Kentucky out.

West Virginia's biggest obstacle against Kentucky will not be their relatively poor shooting so far in the tournament. It will more likely be injuries that make this Elite Eight matchup one-sided. "Truck" Bryant is out for the rest of the tournament, and Da'Sean Butler was banged up in the game against Washington. Even at full strength I don't think West Virginia has the overall talent to compete with a Kentucky team that may see multiple players taken in the first round of the next NBA draft. With the injuries and weaknesses shown so far by West Virginia in the 2010 NCAA Tournament, I don't think this one will be close.

Elite Eight Prediction: Kentucky 78, West Virginia 68

(1) Duke vs. (3) Baylor

Sunday, March 28, 5:05 P.M.

Duke has done exactly as expected so far in the 2010 NCAA Tournament. They haven't struggled much (except for the first half of the game against Purdue) and have won all of their games by double digits. They've also scored a consistent amount of points in each game (73, 68, 70) so far and should look to do the same in the Elite Eight. Although they may not be as flashy and powerful as the other remaining number one squad (Kentucky), Duke has been just as dominant in the NCAA Tournament.

The Baylor team that many thought had a chance to make it to the Final Four before the 2010 NCAA Tournament finally showed up against Saint Mary's. The Baylor Bears outshot, outrebounded, and just totally outplayed the Saint Mary's Gaels. Although they'll be facing a very tough and consistent Duke squad in the Elite Eight, Baylor is peaking in the tournament at the right time. Duke's road to the Elite Eight has not been overly difficult, and it would not be surprising to see them come out complacent against a Baylor squad that's been underestimated all year.

Elite Eight Prediction: Baylor 74, Duke 71

Source(s):

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/bracket

All statistics retrieved from ESPN.com