2010 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Preview and Predictions

The first two rounds of the 2010 NCAA Tournament are over, and the Sweet Sixteen looks a lot different than most people thought. There are three double-digit seeds remaining (Cornell, Washington, Saint Mary's) and some schools that looked Sweet Sixteen bound at the beginning of the tournament are out (Kansas, Villanova, Georgetown, New Mexico, Texas A&M).

Here are the Sweet Sixteen matchups for the 2010 NCAA Tournament (all times given are Eastern Standard Time):

(9) Northern Iowa vs. (5) Michigan State

Friday, March 26, 9:37 P.M.

Northern Iowa has been a strong defensive team all season, winning the Missouri Valley Conference on staunch defense and controlling the pace of its games. Because they play in a "Mid-Major" conference, however, few people knew how good the Northern Iowa Panthers are. Now, after ousting top-seed Kansas and reaching the Sweet Sixteen, everyone knows that the Panthers have come to the NCAA Tournament to play. Perhaps the most impressive thing about Northern Iowa's victory was how they didn't stray from their normal gameplan and forced the high scoring Kansas (81.7 points per game) to play in a defensive battle. If Northern Iowa is able to do the same against Michigan State, it won't surprise anyone if they're able to make the Elite Eight.

Michigan State, coming off close games against both New Mexico State and Maryland, will be missing leading scorer Kalin Lucas for the rest of the NCAA Tournament (14.0 points per game). Without Lucas, Michigan State almost blew a nine point halftime lead and relied on a buzzer-beating three pointer by backup guard Korie Lucious to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. Although Michigan State still has guys who can score, it will be tough for them to survive against a staunch defense like Northern Iowa's without the Spartans' team leader.

Sweet Sixteen Prediction: Northern Iowa 65, Michigan State 59

(6) Tennessee vs. (2) Ohio State

Friday, March 26, 7:07 P.M.

Tennessee has advanced to the Sweet Sixteen after beating two double-digit seeds in San Diego State and Ohio. Although they looked strong against Ohio, a team that handily beat Georgetown in the first round, they have yet to face a real test in the 2010 NCAA Tournament. It's easy to say that Tennessee has the ability to beat the top teams in the nation (they pulled off victories against both Kansas and Kentucky during the season). It's also easy to point to Tennessee's 74-45 loss against Kentucky in the SEC Tournament as a sign that they might not have what it takes. Fortunately for the Volunteers, they'll be facing an Ohio State team that has not looked its best so far in the NCAA Tournament.

Ohio State committed 18 turnovers in its 75-66 win against Georgia Tech, nine of them by star guard Evan Turner. Although the Buckeyes haven't lost since February 17, few of those wins have been easy. If they are to have any chance at beating Tennessee, Ohio State is going to have to hold onto the ball better than they did against Georgia Tech and get better shooting out of Evan Turner than he's shown so far in the NCAA Tournament (31% from the field).

Sweet Sixteen Prediction: Tennessee 74, Ohio State 72

(1) Syracuse vs. (5) Butler

Thursday, March 25, 7:07 P.M.

With senior center Arinze Onuaku injured for the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, there were many people who didn't think Syracuse was going to make the Sweet Sixteen. After embarrassing Gonzaga in an 87-65 victory, Syracuse looks like the prohibitive favorite to come out of the west region of the bracket.

Butler, meanwhile, struggled early against UTEP before exploding in the second half and barely scratched by thirteen seed Murray State. Butler hasn't lost since late December, but the Bulldogs haven't looked convincingly strong so far in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. If they consistently hit their shots and force the zone defense played by Syracuse to expand, Butler has a chance at winning. If they shoot 35% like they did against Murray State, we could be looking at another blowout.

Sweet Sixteen Prediction: Syracuse 72, Butler 59

(6) Xavier vs. (2) Kansas State

Thursday, March 25, 9:37 P.M.

On the back of Jordan Crawford's 27 points, the Xavier Musketeers were able to edge out the over-seeded Pittsburgh Panthers to advance to the Sweet Sixteen for the third straight year. If there's one major weakness Xavier showed in the game against Pittsburgh, it was their inability to rebound consistently, losing the rebound battle 35-29. If the Musketeers fail to advance to the Elite Eight, it won't be because they weren't good enough. It'll be because they run into a superior team.

That superior team, in my opinion, is Kansas State. Although their shooting has been inconsistent at times during the season, the Kansas State Wildcats have constantly found ways to win. Kansas State dominated BYU in rebounds (33 to 24) and made 40% of their three point shots to advance to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since 1988. Xavier will prove to be a formidable opponent, but if Kansas State controls the boards like they did against BYU, the Wildcats are looking at an Elite Eight berth.

Sweet Sixteen Prediction: Kansas State 77, Xavier 70

(1) Kentucky vs. (12) Cornell

Thursday, March 25, 9:57 P.M.

Kentucky won in the opening round by 29 points and against Wake Forest by 30. Questions still remain about the youth of the Kentucky Wildcats (three of their five starters are freshmen), but so far they have made two NCAA Tournament games look like playground games.

The Cornell Big Red have only lost four games so far on the season, one of them a five point loss to Kansas. In the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, Cornell has thoroughly dominated Temple and Wisconsin, and will prove to be a much tougher opponent for Kentucky than at first glance. Although Cornell will give the Wildcats their first test of the NCAA Tournament, Cornell's Elite Eight dreams will be dashed early on up against a team with superior talent like Kentucky.

Sweet Sixteen Prediction: Kentucky 81, Cornell 70

(11) Washington vs. (2) West Virginia

Thursday, March 25, 7:27 P.M.

The Washington Huskies were able to make the NCAA Tournament after upsetting Cal in the SEC Tournament. Now, they're in the Sweet Sixteen. Victories over Marquette and New Mexico were largely the result of two great shooting performances (54.5% against Marquette; 48.5% against New Mexico). Although it's difficult to see Washington repeating these performances against a strong defense team like West Virginia, it's not out of the question (Washington's leading scorer, Quincy Pondexter, has shot 53.2% on the season). If Washington is able to score like they did in the second round against New Mexico, we might be seeing an eleven seed in the Elite Eight.

West Virginia is coming off a tough win against a scrappy Missouri team. Although the Mountaineers' defense has been strong for most of the season, West Virginia can't rely on the Huskies shooting 32.8% from the field like the Tigers did. The key to the game will likely be Da'Sean Butler. He scored 28 points and made 12 of 13 free throws to lift West Virginia into the Sweet Sixteen. If Butler has a repeat performance against Washington and the West Virginia defense doesn't collapse, West Virginia should see itself in the Elite Eight.

Sweet Sixteen Prediction: West Virginia 72, Washington 71

(1) Duke vs. (4) Purdue

Friday, March 26, 9:57 P.M.

Duke has made a Sweet Sixteen run look easy. They handily dispatched Arkansas Pine-Bluff in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. In the second round, the Duke Blue Devils easily rolled past Cal on the back of a great defensive performance. My initial bracket had Duke being ousted by Texas A & M, but with Purdue being the opponent and the Blue Devils showing no signs of slowing down, I would be shocked not to see Duke advance to the Elite Eight.

Purdue was picked by many to lose in the first round against Siena. This was based mainly on Purdue's humiliating 69-42 loss to Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament and the loss of star forward Robbie Hummell in late February. Purdue was rolling along at the time of Hummell's injury, but has looked shaky in March. Even though they beat Texas A & M to make the Sweet Sixteen, Purdue looked far from dominant. They were outrebounded 40-30, committed more fouls (18-13), and would've lost easily if A & M hadn't shot 35.4% from the field and 58.8% from the free throw line.

Sweet Sixteen Prediction: Duke 68, Purdue 58

(3) Baylor vs. (10) Saint Mary's

Friday, March 26, 7:27 P.M.

Although the Baylor Bears are happy to be in the Sweet Sixteen, they probably aren't too happy with how they made it. They struggled against Sam Houston State and Old Dominion, and are stumbling at a time when they're asked to take on red-hot Saint Mary's. If Baylor plays at the level its shown the first two rounds, they'll be going home after Friday's game. If they play like the team that stood out in a very good Big 12 conference, they should be able to withstand Saint Mary's offensive assault.

I'd say Saint Mary's was lucky to face a Villanova team that had lost 5 of 7 games going into the NCAA Tournament and barely beat Robert Morris in the first round. Saint Mary's win, however, had as much to do with the Gaels' powerful offense and Omar Samhan's MVP-quality performance (32 points, 13 of 16 shooting). The battle against Baylor will be a tight one, and although I'm picking Baylor to win, I would not be at all surprised if Saint Mary's is able to pull out another win and advance to the Elite Eight.

Sweet Sixteen Prediction: Baylor 76, Saint Mary's 75

Source(s):

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/bracket

All statistics retrieved from ESPN.com