2010 NH Senate Race a Tough Road for Paul Hodes

Strafford, NH -- Congressman Paul Hodes, the presumptive Democratic candidate for the NH Senate seat being vacated by Republican Judd Gregg, is trailing in Rasmussen polls in head to head match-ups against each of the top three Republican challengers. Bill Binnie, Ovide Lamontagne and Kelly Ayotte all show substantial leads against Hodes in a poll of likely voters. Although too much is generally made of local elections as a proxy for the national stage, the 2010 NH Senate race looks like it will live up to that billing.

Choice Between Progress or Gridlock

If the 2010 Senate race follows history, the party of the newly elected president will lose congressional seats to the minority party. A win by Hodes would take a Republican seat away and add to the Democratic majority and go a long way toward helping to stem Democratic Senate seat losses overall. With even a minority of Republicans able to obstruct the president's agenda thus far, any changes in the makeup of the Senate and the House this fall could foretell whether we will see any continued progress toward real reform or whether we will be faced with even more crippling legislative gridlock.

2010 NH Senate Race a Proxy for Big Government?

The fact that Hodes is trailing by a relatively wide margin against all three possible opponents seems to suggest that he may be suffering from an anti-incumbent backlash. Hodes supported the Health Care Bill and much of the President Obama's agenda during the previous year. Republicans would like to make the NH 2010 Senate race a referendum on big government and portray Hodes as having contributed to a perceived strengthening of the federal government's control over the daily life of New Hampshire residents.

Recent NH Election Results

New Hampshire supported Obama in the 2008 presidential election and elected Democrat Jeanne Shaheen to her first term in the Senate along with him. NH did, however, support George Bush in 2000 and does not have a pronounced leaning to either party in recent years. Even so, taking a Republican seat in the first mid-term election after the White House switches from Republican to Democratic control will be a steep uphill climb for anyone. The Republican candidate, whoever it may be, must, therefore, be the favorite going in to the 2010 NH Senate race.

Hodes Picking Likely Republican Primary Winner?

Meanwhile, until the Republican primary, Hodes must either spread out his efforts to define his three possible opponents or pick one whom he believes will win. Going out too strong too early against one opponent leaves open the possibility that one of the others will win the primary and the efforts will be wasted. Even so, Hodes has come out swinging last week against former NH Attorney general Kelly Ayotte, announcing in a campaign press release that his campaign had filed a Right to Know request for e-mails and schedules relating to Ayotte's handling of a NH Ponzi scheme case involving Financial Resources Management.

Hodes Attacks Ayotte on Deleted E-mails

Mark Bergman, Communications Director for Hodes for Senate, said in the statement, "We believe the public has a right to know why Kelly Ayotte failed to go after the individuals who perpetrated massive fraud on Granite Staters under her watch." The Hodes campaign told Foster's Daily Democrat that Ayotte's actionscision "couldn't be more questionable and couldn't be more suspect." Ayotte deleted all the emails from her time as state attorney general and just two days before resigning from the post to enter into the 2010 NH Senate race, issued a memo stating that even though copies of the emails remained on an official back-up system, they should not be subject release for Right to Know inquiries.

Ayotte Responds to E-mail Inquiries

The request by the Hodes campaign appears to be a fishing expedition, as it lacks any specific allegations. Ayotte, in a carefully worded request, has re-affirmed that the deleted e-mails are not legally subject to Right to Know requests and defines exactly what constitutes deletion from a legalese perspective, but asks that the Office of Information technology "restore and release" the e-mails and schedules anyway. Whether that personal request outweighs the legal boundaries imposed upon the Right to Know law, and so clearly communicated in the memo by Ayotte, only a person with the legal background of Republican 2010 Senate primary candidate Kelly Ayotte can say. Meanwhile, thousands of other, undeleted e-mails from Ayotte's AG office have been made public.

2010 NH Senate Race Strategies Take Shape

Either way, it lays a foundation for Hodes, a strong supporter of President Obama's bid for Wall Street financial reform to portray Ayotte as a defender of financial industry insiders who, it can be said, are to blame for much of the economic mess in which the nation finds itself. Even in the early stages of the 2010 NH Senate Race for the seat of retiring Republican Senator Judd Gregg, the strategies of both sides are starting to take shape. Hodes will be defined by his Republican opponent as a Washington insider promoting a federal government take-over of all things New Hampshire residents hold dear, and Ayotte if she wins the primary, will likely be attacked as a symbol of the cozy backroom deals between government and greedy Wall Street financiers that have led our nation's economy to ruin and cost many New Hampshire resident's their jobs and their savings. It should be a lively campaign; I can hardly wait.

Sources:

Adam D. Krauss. Hodes: Ayotte needs to answer queries about her e-mail. May 11, 2010. Retrieved from www.fosters.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100511/GJNEWS_01/705119855/-1/FOSNEWS on May 11, 2010.

Election 2010: New Hampshire Senate,New Hampshire Senate: Ayotte First To Reach 50%. Rasmussen Reports. April 9, 2010. Retrieved from www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/new_hampshire/election_2010_new_hampshire_senate on May 11, 2010.

Hodes Campaign to NH DOJ: Release the Ponzi Scheme E-mails. May 5, 2010. Hodes Campaign Press release. Retrieved from paulhodesforsenate.com/press_releases/details/2010-05-hodes-campaign-to-nh-doj-release-ponzi-scheme-e-mails on May 11, 2010.