2010 NIT Semifinals Predictions

The big upsets in the NCAA Tournament have meant that even fewer people are paying attention to what has become an amazing 2010 NIT. There are only four teams remaining, including last year's national champion North Carolina Tarheels.

A week ago, before the NIT started, I wrote an article detailing my sleepers and predictions for the 2010 NIT. Although two of my sleepers (UCONN and Illinois State) were bounced out of the tournament early and both teams in my finals matchup are also out (Mississippi State and Illinois), it's been an exciting tournament and that's all that can really be asked for.

Here are my predictions for the semifinal matchups (all times given in Eastern Standard Time):

(3) Dayton vs. (2) Mississippi

Tuesday, March 30, 7:00 P.M.

Dayton struggled through a surprisingly tough Atlantic-10 schedule, going 8-8 in conference. Early in the season, however, they played very good Villanova and Kansas State squads, keeping both games fairly close before losing in the end. Unfortunately, Dayton has shown a proclivity for losing on the road, with their pre-NIT road wins consisting of Fordham, St. Bonaventure, George Mason, and Miami (Ohio). Although they're coming off road wins against good Cincinnati and Illinois teams, the biggest test for Dayton will be if they can keep up the energy for a third straight road game. Most people probably didn't think Dayton would make the NIT Semifinals, but with Dayton making it this far and Xavier making it to the Sweet Sixteen in the NCAA Tournament, maybe it's time people stop underestimating the Atlantic-10 Conference.

Mississippi is not nearly as strong a squad as the teams that regularly beat Dayton during the season, and they are coming off a tough double overtime victory against Texas Tech. Although they looked like a possible NCAA Tournament team early on in the season, they struggled in SEC play. They are playing well so far, making it to the NIT Semifinals, but Mississippi will likely be tired after their game with Texas Tech. Although they are probably the slightly superior team to Dayton talent-wise, the momentum is fully on Dayton's side right now.

NIT Semifinals Prediction: Dayton 72, Mississippi 68

(4) North Carolina vs. (2) Rhode Island

Thursday, March 30, 9:00 P.M.

North Carolina and coach Roy Williams have more NCAA Tournament experience than the rest of the NIT Semifinal field combined. So far in the NIT, North Carolina has kept their composure and although all three of their games have been close, they've managed to pull them out in the end. North Carolina's struggles this season can generally be attributed to both injuries and a talent pool that is less than the Tar Heels are accustomed to. Everything's clicking together now, however, so it will be tough to count North Carolina out. I'm certainly not going to bet against them at this point.

Rhode Island, much like Dayton, hasn't gotten a lot of national exposure due to playing in the Atlantic-10 conference, but has played extremely well in the NIT. Beating out Virginia Tech to make it to the NIT Semifinals, Rhode Island has capitalized on forcing their opponents to make far more turnovers than the Rams commit. Conversely, North Carolina has been winning despite committing more turnovers than their opponents, which might not be good for Rhode Island. The Rams are going to have to capitalize on every turnover they force, or else I think North Carolina could run away with this one.

NIT Semifinals predictions: North Carolina 74, Rhode Island 68

NIT Finals Prediction

North Carolina 69, Dayton 65

Source(s):

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/schedule?date=20100330

All statistics retrieved from ESPN.com