2010 NIT Sleepers and Predictions

Although the big talk around the world of college basketball is about the NCAA Tournament, the 2010 NIT (National Invitational Tournament) is a good showcase of the teams that were almost good enough this year and will be dangerous teams next season. Six of the eight teams to make it to the Quarterfinals in the 2009 NIT are in the 2010 NCAA Tournament, including top-ranked Kentucky.

Without further ado, here are my 2010 NIT sleepers and predictions:

Illinois State

Teams not in one of the "power conferences" are often overlooked, both in the public eye and when selections are made for end=season tournaments. Illinois State finished the season at 22-10, beating each of their conference opponents at least once (except for top-ranked Northern Iowa). They led the Missouri Valley Conference in rebounds per game (35.8) and steals per game (7.3). They also had the best individual scorer in conference (Osiris Eldridge, 15.7 points per game) and the best rebounder in conference (Dinma Odiakosa, 8.8 rebounds per game). Unfortunately, Illinois State's out-of-conference schedule leaves a lot to be desired, and they've yet to prove that they can consistently win against really good teams. Of all the lower seeds in the NIT, however, Illinois State probably has the best chance to actually win a game in the 2010 NIT.

Prediction: Illinois State loses to Cincinnati in Second Round, 70-65

North Carolina & Connecticut

UCONN and UNC have had similar seasons: Both were one seeds in the 2009 NCAA Tournament. Both were ranked in the Top 10 early in the season (UNC as high as #6, UCONN as high as #10). Both suffered through tough conference schedules. Both lost in the first round of their respective conference tournaments. Now, both UCONN and UNC are four-seeds in the NIT.

UNC has suffered through injury after injury, and even when healthy they haven't lived up to the lofty expectations put on them. It's difficult to count out a squad with a history as rich as UNC, and they are the defending national champions. Coming into the NIT as a four-seed, it will be easy to underestimate the Tar Heels. Unfortunately for UNC, the likely second round opponent is Mississippi State, who I think is the strongest team in the 2010 NIT. If UNC beats Mississippi State, they have a fairly easy track to the NIT championship.

UCONN, meanwhile, is coming off an embarrassing 73-51 loss to St. John's in the Big East Tournament. It's easy to forget that, earlier in the season, UCONN beat Texas when they were the top-ranked team in the nation. UCONN also beat top Big East teams West Virginia and Villanova during the season and only lost to top-ranked Syracuse by five points. UCONN has struggled with consistency all season, but with coach Jim Calhoun seeming to be healthy and time to work out the kinks that doomed them in the Big East, UCONN will be a dangerous four seed in the NIT.

Predictions:

UNC loses to Miss. State in 2^nd Round, 63-59

UCONN loses to Miss. State in Semifinals, 70-58

2010 NIT Finals Prediction:

Miss. State defeats Illinois, 66-61

Sources:

http://www.nit.org/auto_pdf/p_hotos/s_chools/nit/sports/m-nit/auto_pdf/2010bracket

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=3985106