2010 Oscar Picks

Who will win the 2010 Oscars? Here's a look at what I think you should expect in the acting, directing and best picture categories come March 7th at the Kodak Theater.

Best Actress

The nominees: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Carey Mulligan (An Education), Gabourey Sidibe (Precious), Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)

Who should win it?

Helen Mirren. One of two Oscar veterans in the field, Mirren showed her range by again playing a real-life historical figure -- Sofya Tolstoy. While this performance wasn't the amazing physical transformation the actress pulled in her Oscar-winning turn as Queen Elizabeth, Mirren's whimsical, manic Countess displays perfectly with what seemingly little effort she needs to inhabit a role.

Who will win it?

Sandra Bullock. Almost thirty years after Sally Field's famous -- "You like me! You really like me!" -- speech, the Academy is still fond of letting people know that they like them. Sandra has been liked by much of Hollywood for nearly 20 years and, while there's no denying that her portrayal of Leigh Anne Tuohy showed Bullock's considerable acting chops, this will be more of an "it's her time" award.

Best Actor

The nominees: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), George Clooney (Up in the Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)

Who should win it?

Jeff Bridges. The veteran actor's rendition of down-and-out country music singer, Bad Blake, was easily the best performance of the year. Simultaneously lovable and pitiful, Bridges brought such realism to the character that it's hard to believe the man exists only in print and celluloid form. Blake will be a character remembered for ages and it's impossible to think of another actor who could've brought him to life in such a way.

Who will win it?

Jeff Bridges. He's been nominated four times over a span of 36 years, but has never grasped the golden statue. Like Bad Blake himself, Bridges' crowning moment will come late in his career. It will be a clean, but not so sober night for the Dude.

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: Penelope Cruz (Nine), Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart), Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air), Monique (Precious)

Who should win it?

Mo'Nique. If you'd happened to catch a largely forgotten movie from 2005 called Shadowboxer, in it you might have seen what director, Lee Daniels, clearly saw in Mo'Nique, an actress best known for MC-ing at the Apollo Theater. That character in Shadowboxer (ironically named "Precious") showed a glimpse of Mo'Nique's formidable dramatic skills.

In Precious, that sliver of potential explodes in an utter tour de force as Mo'Nique inhabits the body of an out-of-control, abusive wellfare mom whose personal demons come spilling out to the harrowing detriment of her daughter. In just a supporting role in an unforgettable movie, Mo'Nique's Mary Jones is what you remember the most.

Who will win it?

Mo'Nique. I will be very surprised if the comedienne doesn't come away with this award. Her field isn't particularly strong and she put in one of the decade's best performances to boot.

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees: Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson, (The Messenger), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones), Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)

Who should win it?

Christoph Waltz. No one caught this 54-year-old Austrian actor flinching when thrust into a Tarantino war epic opposite none other than international superstar, Brad Pitt. Maybe that's because Waltz has already appeared in over 90 films dating back to 1977. Dramatic without being campy, Waltz' Colonel Landa steals the show with such gusto, he already has a slew of American movies lined up to follow.

Who will win it?

Matt Damon. I'm predicting an upset here. Waltz is the odds on favorite, but the Academy has a tradition of awarding nominees for past work. Although he's already picked up an Oscar for screenwriting (1997's Good Will Hunting), the last 13 years have been a showcase for Damon's true talent -- acting. Not enough people know Waltz, yet. I think this award goes to Damon.

Best Director

The nominees: Kathyrn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), James Cameron (Avatar), Lee Daniels (Precious), Jason Reitman (Up in the Air), Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)

Who should win it?

Kathyrn Bigelow. She made the most gripping, gnaw-at-your-senses film of 2009, transporting us to a world familiar to most of us only from the safe distance of a CNN broadcast. While the other nominated directors nimbly slung audiences off to a fantasy world or a hyper-camped-up Nazi Germany or held a bemused mirror up to contemporary reality, none of them did so with quite the same visceral oomph as Bigelow.

Who will win it?

Kathyrn Bigelow. The latest chance for the Academy to hand the directors award to a female for the first time ever? And for a film with as much testosterone splashed across the screen as the works of fellow nominees Cameron and Tarantino? You bet.

Best Picture

The nominees: Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air.

Which one will win it?

Avatar. 12 years ago, James Cameron won Best Picture for Titanic -- a movie short on written flair, but long on ground-breaking f/x. An overall package good enough to make it the best movie of 1997 and, for over a decade, the world's highest grossing movie. In 2009, Cameron amazingly repeated this feat. Avatar (the director's first movie since Titanic) is also short on script savvy and long on ground-breaking f/x. Enough so to make it the best movie of 2009 and the new highest-grossing film of all time. Cameron must be feeling awfully pleased with himself.

Which one should win it?

Avatar. While, in 2009, there were much better scripted movies (there's a reason that, of Avatar's nine nominations, screenplay isn't one of them), films are a visual medium first and a narrative one second. Sometimes a film spectacle is so stunning, so cinematically transformative that it warrants distinction even above better-written movies. These moments are rare. But, in the case of Avatar, as with Titanic, Cameron's movie deserves it.