2010 Oscar Predictions Hold Few Surprises in a Less Than Stellar Movie Year

If you enjoy the simple yet enormous fulfillment of going to your local theater, look forward months in advance to the release of films, follow the Hollywood buzz about upcoming movies and the performances therein, make arrangements to watch the nominations live in February on the morning program of your choice, and consider the Academy Awards one of your favorite television viewing nights of the year, you're a cinema-phobe.

And, if you're like the rest of us, you actually care about who receives nominations and who doesn't, and who wins and who doesn't...even in the technical categories.

It can't be argued that the Academy selected the wrong year to break a tradition started more than 60 years ago and nominate 10 films instead of the customary five. At one time, they nominated 10, and eventually abandoned the practice for likely the same reason they'll abandon it next year. Simply stated, there weren't enough quality films to go around this year.

Let's examine the six top categories and select the probable winners:

Best Supporting Actress

Penélope Cruz - Nine

Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air

Maggie Gyllenhaal - Crazy Heart

Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air

Mo'Nique - Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

Sometimes, performances receive an initial buzz, warranted or not, and the momentum carries the actor to victory on Oscar night. Such is the case for Mo'Nique in a movie that was as widely acclaimed when it was released as her performance. While we all tried to figure out the need for her apostrophe, the shouting for the film abated. But she managed to keep her head above water as the film sunk below her. In a strong category, a case can be made for almost every actress, with my vote cast for Cruz, who is always electric. But Mo'Nique wins.

Best Supporting Actor

Matt Damon - Invictus

Woody Harrelson - The Messenger

Christopher Plummer - The Last Station

Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones

Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

Since the moment Inglorious Basterds was released, Christoph Waltz has been the deserving frontrunner for this award. And he'll win it hands down. His performance can be measured by three outstanding scenes...in the beginning of the film, as he searches for a family hiding in a French countryside farmhouse...in the restaurant, as he engages Mélanie Laurent in an anxiety-filled discussion...and later on, as he negotiates with Brad Pitt as Germany's chances for victory disintegrate.

Woody Harrelson was wonderful, but in a relentlessly depressing film, and Alfred Molina was worthy as the father in An Education. Alas, he wasn't even nominated.

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side

Helen Mirren - The Last Station

Carey Mulligan - An Education

Gabourey Sidibe - Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia

I suppose it's possible that Sandra Bullock will win this award because she was brilliant. Except for one thing...I saw the movie. Clearly, there was nothing inherently wrong with her performance, but it just didn't particularly stand out as groundbreaking. You shouldn't be awarded for merely stepping out of character. Bullock benefits this year from the absence of competition. Mirren was quite good, but won recently. Mulligan is my choice, but few saw this film. Sidibe? Please. And Streep was typically great, but in a highly anticipated film that didn't quite deliver.

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart

George Clooney - Up in the Air

Colin Firth - A Single Man

Morgan Freeman - Invictus

Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker

Here was another slam dunk, but this one originated even before Crazy Heart was released! You knew Jeff Bridge's performance had to be magnificent if it could marginalize Clooney, Firth, and Freeman, some of today's finest actors, before anybody actually saw it. But let's also consider the other options. George Clooney always effects a quality effort, hut his film was overhyped and, while good, somewhat disappointing. Colin Firth starred in a film with some off-center subject matter that few people saw. Morgan Freeman is always good, but it's sometimes difficult to distinguish one role from the next. And does he have to narrate everything? Jeremy Renner was quite good as well, but unspectacular. Bridges made us believe, and care for a slovenly, half-defeated alcoholic. Outstanding. He wins.

Best Director

Avatar - James Cameron

The Hurt Locker - Kathryn Bigelow

Inglourious Basterds - Quentin Tarantino

Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire - Lee Daniels

Up in the Air - Jason Reitman

Bigelow will win here, because it seems pre-ordained, and because the Directors' Guild said so. But this momentum seemed to occur as the result of an anti-Cameron (her ex-husband) backlash, and I don't understand it. The Hurt Locker is a fine film, but I'm not sure it even qualifies as a film next to Avatar. No matter what you think of the latter, you'd have to agree it's a directorial tour de force. Cameron has created something beyond a movie...an interactive experience of incredible value. I'd rank Bigelow fourth on this list, with Tarantino a close second, and Reitman third. Daniels? Please.

Best Film

Avatar - James Cameron and Jon Landau

The Blind Side - Gil Netter, Andrew A. Kosove and Broderick Johnson

District 9 - Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham

An Education - Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey

The Hurt Locker - Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicolas Chartier and Greg Shapiro

Inglourious Basterds - Lawrence Bender

Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire - Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness

A Serious Man - Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

Up - Jonas Rivera

Up in the Air - Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman

You want to restore some tradition? Let's remove District 9, The Blind Side, Precious, Up, and A Serious Man from this list. Enjoyable films all, they're just not worthy of this kind of stature. The Hurt Locker will follow Bigelow to the winner's circle in part because of aforementioned prejudices, but also because Avatar does have a fatal flaw in this process...it needs to be viewed in 3D IMAX for maximum effect and most voters screen these films on DVD's at home. At least it won't be as outrageous a result as last year's Slumdog Millionaire victory, and for that, we all should be grateful.