2010 Senate Elections

It seems the 2008 United States elections just ended, but another election with national implications is about to begin.

This time it is the 2010 midterm elections in both the US Senate and US House of Representatives. This article will focus on the Senate.

For the 2010 elections, the Democrats hope to keep the good times rolling by maintaining their majorities, winning more seats and expanding the map even more than they already have. Republicans hope to cut into the Democratic momentum and cut their 60-40 deficit down to get some of their momentum back they lost under George Bush's presidency.

According to the Cook Political Report ran by conservative pollster Charlie Cook, the Republicans could be in for it again. The Cook Report said there are five Republican Senate seats in the "tossup" column, while only two are for the Democrats. In addition, the Cook Report said there are two "leans Democrat" seats and one "leans Republican seat."

But looking at the polls of each individual state, each party could make some massive gains in 2010. The gains will depend on the popularity of President Barack Obama, who currently has approval ratings in the 60s.

It's not like America hasn't seen tidal waves wipe out a whole political party. In 1994, President Bill Clinton's approval rating was low, which led the way for Newt Gingrich to sweep in a wave of Republicans in the House and Senate.

Then in 2006, President George Bush's approval rating tanked, which led the way for Democrats to sweep into power, taking back the House and Senate from Republican control.

Therefore, the president's approval rating will have a lot to do with how the race could turn up. In some cases, it is the candidates, like what we saw in 2008, when an even bigger tidal wave blew conservatives over and were replaced by centrist Democrats, such as Mark Begich of Alaska, Mark Warner of Virginia and North Carolina with Kay Hagan.

In 2010, a third tidal wave could be coming to sweep out more Republicans. In fairness, a lot of Republicans are retiring, such as George Voinovich of Ohio, Kit Bond of Missouri, Judd Gregg of New Hampshire and Mel Martinez of Florida. Those four seats have since become competitive for Democrats to take back from Republican control.

Republicans did catch a break this week though when Governor Charlie Crist of Florida made a step closer into announcing his candidacy for Senate, which would make the race a solid Republican hold.

In addition to those four seats, the states of Kentucky, North Carolina and Louisiana are vulnerable seats for Republicans.

In Kentucky, Jim Bunning has gaffed himself into a hole and finds himself trailing by about 15 points to Congressman Ben Chandler, who has announced his candidacy to run for the seat.

In Louisiana, Senator David Vitter sunk himself after sleeping around with the famous DC Madame prostitute. It is possible that LT Governor Mitch Landrieu will run for the seat. The Landrieu name might sink Vitter to his defeat.

In North Carolina, Senator Richard Burr has been struggling with his approval ratings. In addition, he made a comment not too long ago about withdrawing all the personal money from the bank to avoid paying taxes on it. The AG of the state, Roy Cooper, is thinking about running for the seat. Currently, he holds a four point lead over Burr.

Assuming the Democrats win every seat and win all seven of those seats, the grand total for the Democrats will be at 67 in the Senate. That would mean that a far left agenda would basically be free to be shoved down the throats of a centrist America, making many moderates feel uneasy about the direction of their country.

However, Republicans have their chances too, which should have Democrats in some states worried.

The states of Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Nevada, New York and maybe even Delaware could be potential races Democrats could lose.

In Colorado, Michael Bennett will be seeking a full term for the Senate. Since he is not well known outside of Denver, polls have shown him struggling against former Governor Bill Owens and former Congressman Bob Beauprez. Both run neck and neck with Bennett.

In Connecticut, Senator Chris Dodd is up, but he is very unpopular due to his close and sometimes unethically crooked ties with AIG and Countrywide. Rob Simmons, a former Congressman there, polls 16 points higher than Dodd, which now puts Connecticut as Republican.

In Illinois, it is a political zoo right now. Currently, the seat is held by Roland Burris. But a primary challenge might be in the works, which would put Burris at a downfall according to the polls. But even the toughest challenger, the treasurer, Alexi Giannoulias, is neck and neck with the strongest Republican, Mark Kirk, Congressman of the 10^th District. Assuming Burris gets no primary, he trails 53-19 to Kirk.

In Nevada, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid finds himself at a 39 percent approval, with 49 percent disapproving. Different state politicians have thought about challenging him, such as former Congressman John Porter, who only trailed Reid by six back in November of 2008.

In New York, it looks as though Charles Schumer is safe, but newly appointed Senator Kristen Gillibrand is not. A lot of the reason is because of Governor David Patterson, who is running the state into the ground with 19 percent approval ratings. A major part of that is because of very liberal taxation and spending plans as well as how he handled the appointment process. A poll shows Gillibrand doing well against Representative Peter King, but gets beat by six to former Governor George Pataki.

In Delaware, every political pollster seems to think it will be blue. But polls and scenarios right now show a different story. The only potential candidate on the Democratic side is Beau Biden, son of Vice President Joe Biden. But a potential candidate on the Republican side is Mike Castle, the Congressman out of there. Currently, Castle smashes Biden by 21 points, which could put that race in jeopardy for Democrats.

An additional possible seat Republicans might have a shot at is Pennsylvania, where Arlen Specter is currently running as a Democrat. But the far left has expressed anger at Specter for not voting with Democrats all of the time and have resorted to possibly throwing out Congressman Joe Sestak as a primary challenger.

The Democrats got a big break when Tom Ridge, former Pennsylvania Governor decided against running for the Senate seat, leaving the Republicans stuck with Pat Toomey. But a poll showed that Toomey did trail by 37 points to Ridge, which means there is an appetite for Republicans to run a moderate. In addition, if the far left oust Specter, then Toomey will face Sestak. A hypothetical poll for that race shows Toomey well into the race, only trailing by five points.

If Republicans get their way and win all of these seats and don't lose a single one of their seats, they will have cut the deficit down to 53-47. That would mean Republicans would basically filibuster the far left agenda of Democrats and create more deadlock in the Senate due to a very partisan far right agenda by Republicans.

The race is still very early and anything can change. But if Obama holds those high numbers going into 2010, the Democrats could be pressed to gain even more seats and thus, pushing through a very liberal agenda for America.