2010 Unemployment Extension Best Case Scenario -- Bill Could Be Signed by Week's End

H.R.5618 Is Best Chance for the Unemployed to Get Unemployment Benefits Flowing Again Within a Week

Saul Relative, Yahoo! Contributor Network
Jul 12, 2010 "Share your voice on Yahoo! websites. Start Here."

Before Congress recessed for the July 4 holiday, the House of Representatives passed a standalone unemployment benefits extension measure, H.R.5618. The Senate, having failed to reach cloture on H.R.4213, an umbrella bill that included unemployment extensions, as well as Medicaid provisions for the states, for the fourth time in June, had recessed the evening before, basically putting the bill on hold until after the recess, and relegating those who had lost their unemployment and those whose extensions had expired since June 2 to limbo until after the July 4 recess.

But, with the reconvening of the Senate on July 12, according to OpenCongress.org, H.R.5618 could be signed by President Obama by week's end, and much-needed unemployment benefits could be flowing again into the hands of those depending on them to pay their bills. But, what has to happen for H.R.5618 to reach the President's desk before the weekend?

Bear in mind that the passage and signing of H.R.5618, which would further extend the unemployment extensions to the end of November, by Friday depends upon several things, but two things in particular: the quickness with which Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) submits the bill for cloture for proceeding to bill, and how determined the Republicans are to filibuster and stall the passage of the bill, which could delay the bill being passed and signed until sometime next week.

A quick breakdown of the best case scenario for passage of H.R.5618:

1) Senator Reid files motion on Monday to invoke cloture on proceeding to bill.
2) One hour after the second day after motion is filed (Wednesday), motion is "ripe," and Senate will vote on cloture.
3) Once invoking cloture has passed (which takes 60 senators voting affirmatively), Senator Reid can file a motion for actual cloture of the bill itself, which takes 60 votes to pass as well.
4) As with the invoking cloture for proceeding to bill motion, the motion for invoking cloture also takes two days to become "ripe." Again, one hour after the second day (Friday) after filing, the Senate can vote on cloture.
5) By Senate custom, the majority party is usually allowed to submit the bill for an up-or-down vote, which requires 50 votes to pass.
6) President Obama signs the bill within hours of its passage.

But that's the best case scenario. With the Republicans' track record of stalling, objecting, and filibustering on the various unemployment benefits extension measures that have gone to the Senate, it could take somewhat longer. And, a 60th vote for the two cloture votes may not come that easily.

The Democrats were one Senator shy in their last vote, and, with the death of Senator Robert C. Byrd (D-WV), their attempts at reaching 60 became a little more difficult. And, since West Virginia governor Joe Manchin decided to wait until a special session of the West Virginia state legislature before appointing Senator Byrd's interim replacement, the 60th vote still requires at least one other Republican "yea" vote (besides the two Republican Senators from Maine, who voted for H.R.4213 on the last vote) or Senator Ben Nelson (D-NB), who has voted against cloture in the past, returning to vote with his fellow Democrats.

And, there are other ways the passage of the bill could be thwarted or delayed. The most obvious, of course, is that H.R.5618 does not gain cloture. But, barring direct failure, there are other ways to delay the bill.

For example, if Senator Reid delays filing the motions of cloture, for whatever reason (such as delaying long enough to attempt to gain passage of the more extensive and overarching H.R.4213), the process is delayed for each day of delay. If he should file for the first cloture vote on Tuesday, then, by Senate rules, the bill cannot be voted on until Thursday. Each successive day of delay pushes the final passage vote, should the bill gain cloture, back another day.

Once the bill has gained its two cloture votes, there is still one method of delay of final passage available to Republicans. Although it is customary for the minority party to allow the majority party to present the bill for a final vote shortly after reaching cloture, by Senate rules they can keep the bill held up in the Senate for another 30 hours before a final up-or-down passage vote takes place.

It is estimated that the number of individuals whose unemployment benefits extensions will have expired by mid-July will climb to over 1.5 million. For each week of delay in passing an unemployment extensions package of some form, another estimated 200,000 see their benefits expire. For many, mired in an economy where there are five applicants for each open job position, an unemployment benefits check is all there is between losing a home, a car, and/or keeping the utility bills paid.

The Department of Labor estimates that there are at least 15 million people unemployed in the United States. Of that number, roughly one-third receive unemployment benefits. Over 6 million people have entered what is known as long-term unemployment -- being unemployed for 27 weeks or longer -- which is the highest long-term unemployment rate since documentation of unemployment records began in 1948.

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Sources:

OpenCongress.org

BLS.org

Published by Saul Relative

WVU graduate, with degrees in History, English, Secondary Education, Computer Programming, and Psychology (and nearly a degree in Political Science). Originally from West Virginia, with stints in Virginia,... View profile

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2010 Unemployment Extension Best Case Scenario -- Bill Could Be Signed by Week's End

H.R.5618 Is Best Chance for the Unemployed to Get Unemployment Benefits Flowing Again Within a Week

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