2010-2011 Stanley Cup Finals to Go to Game 7

The 2010-2011 NHL Stanley Cup Championship will end in a Game 7 in Vancouver, British Columbia on Wednesday June 15. The NHL introduced the 7-game format in 1939 and since then 15-finals have gone the full 7, with the home team winning 12 of them: Detroit has won 4 game-sevens, Toronto 3. Given the results of the 2011 Finals games in Vancouver, this does not bode well for the Boston Bruins.

The Bruins, as a team, have been inconsistent offensively, but generally solid. In the games they have won, they have exploded offensively. The defense has been spectacular, killing off 19 of 20 power plays with the lone failed kill in game 6. Tim Thomas' goal tending has been nothing short of spectacular. On the opposite side of the ledger the Canucks have suffered from at times abominable goal tending and having benched Roberto Luongo twice for poor play in net. Their power play has been ineffective, but their tough play has kept them in games long enough to take advantage of scarce scoring opportunities. The "B's" have simply been unable to gain a toehold in British Columbia. The Canucks have been consistent offensively and that consistent performance has put them on the brink of a Stanley Cup Championship despite having been outmatched and outclassed in their losses and matched in their victories. They have lost games because of poor goal tending. They are playing at their highest level, but as soon as they encounter a deficit they're unable to compensate.

In 1960, the Pittsburgh Pirates won the World Series on Bill Mazeroski's game 7 walk-off homerun, the first walk off series winner in baseball history. The Pirates had won games by 2 runs, 1 run, and 3 runs. The Yankees had won games by 13 runs, 10 runs, and 12 runs - the latter 2-wins via shutout. In the first 6-games, the Yankees had outscored the Pirates by 30-runs. The Pirates won the series in Game 7 by 1-run, but were outscored by 29-runs. At the end of the series for every run Pittsburgh scored, the Yankees had scored 2; going into game 7, that ratio was almost 3-runs (2.7)

Unlike the 1960 World Series, in this Finals the home team has won each contest, however much like the 1960 MLB Championship, Vancouver has won 3-games by 1-goal: 1 with 18.5 seconds left for a 1-0 victory, 1 in overtime for a 3-2 victory, and 1 with less than 5-minutes remaining for a 1-0 win. By contrast, the Bruins have won 3-games by wide margins: 7-goals, 4-goals, and 3-goals. The Bruins have outscored the Canucks by 11-goals - for every Vancouver goal, Boston has scored a little more than 2 (2.3). For a similar drop, Vancouver would have to win by 3, something they have thusfar not demonstrated an ability to do given their highest per-game offensive output in this finals has been 3. That said, the only series of the 15 game-7's in Stanley Cup Finals history in which the home team won every game was 2003 when New Jersey won 3-0 over Anaheim.

Boston has been the better all-around team in this series, but the 1960 New York Yankees teach us that it is not the better team that wins; it is not even the most consistent - they scored 9 runs and lost on a walk-off. Vancouver will be on their home ice, where they have not lost in this series and where 80% of their Game-7 brethren have emerged victorious. It is hard to imagine a Bruins offensive onslaught the likes of games 3, 4, and 6, and Vancouver has not had difficulty scoring all season. It will be a game of goal tending, physical defense, and likely the rare opportunistic goal. The big question for Vancouver will be whether or not Luongo starts and if so, what Luongo will play? The steadfast keep that has shut-out the Bruins twice this series, or the veritable sieve that allowed 8-goals in game 3 and 3-goals in the first few minutes of game-6? In the games in which Cory Schneider has replaced Luongo, he been effective in the role - made especially ironic as Schneider is a native of Marblehead, Massachusetts; a born and bred Bruins fan.

Boston will have to do more to take advantage of the Canucks mistakes and to create the opportunities they have failed to do in the 3-previous games in Vancouver. History is on the side of the Canucks to win their franchise first Cup. The play is on the side of the Bruins to win their first since 1972. One way or the other, hockey history will be made on June 15. I expect a game that looks very similar to the other three games played in Vancouver in this series: hard fought, low scoring, with both teams quite evenly matched.

1960 World Series: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960_World_Series

NHL Game 7 Stanley Cup Finals Results: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/13410909/ns/sports-nhl/