2011 BCS National Championship Game Prediction; Auburn Vs. Oregon Betting Picks & Spread

We are quickly approaching the last game of the 2010-2011 NCAA College football season. The two clear contenders have made the National Championship Game (sorry TCU), and now it is time for predictions and millions of dollars in bets for both teams. Here is a breakdown of the game and betting lines with my predictions. For all of the bowl games and my picks against the spread, see here:
Michael Luchies Bowl Predictions for All Bowls

Auburn Tigers (-3) vs. Oregon Ducks (Point Total 74)
I had thought previously that the Oregon Ducks would win this contest until doing my research and a breakdown of the game from front to back. I will spare you much of my analysis, but here is a quick breakdown of several aspects I looked at.

Offensive Points Per Game: Oregon 49.3, Auburn 42.7

Defensive Points Allowed Per Game: Oregon 18.4, Auburn 24.5

Rushing Yards Per Game: Oregon 303.5, Auburn 287.2 (Auburn has a higher overall total due to an extra game played)

Passing Yards Per Game: Oregon 233.7, Auburn 210.5

Although all four of these metrics favor the Oregon Ducks, they are misleading without other relevant information. The Auburn Tigers have played against 5 Top 20 teams, and have beaten them all. How many Top 20 teams have the Oregon Ducks played and beaten? Just one.

The SEC is a far tougher conference than the Pac-10 and the Auburn Tigers have the best player in all of college football in Cam Newton. The Ducks counter with LaMichael James, but can he do all of the work for Oregon? We can debate about the matchup and who has the overall better team and coaching, but lets take a look at my pick and a breakdown of the spread and betting props.

Pick: Auburn 35-31, Auburn -3, UNDER 74
I expect my point total to be very high considering the pressure under both teams to manage mistakes. This game could easily score under 60. Take the under. I am not confident of the spread. Under my bowl predictions with confidence level, I took Auburn with less than 10 confidence points in each group I entered. See below for prop bets, but be very careful of the overall spread, this will be a close game. A 3 point line is always tough to take in football. If you can buy half a point in either direction I would for this game.

Prop Bets:
Longest Touchdown of the Game: 64.5 yards
Pick: Under; Although both teams have solid gamebreakers, both defenses are solid and should not allow a touchdown of more than 50 yards. LaMichael James from Oregon would have the greatest chance of breaking a 70 yard touchdown, but at even odds I have to take the under.

First Score of the Game Will Be: Touchdown (-400) or Any Other (+300)
Pick: Any Other (+300); Both teams will come out conservative and attempt to put up any kind of points on the board. Don't bet your life on it by any means, but the chances of a field goal early on are better than you think.

Team to Score First: Oregon (Even) or Auburn (-130)
Pick: Oregon; Although my overall pick is Auburn, they have started very slow all year while Oregon for the most part has started quickly accept against Stanford.

Will Either Team Score in the First 4 1/2 Minutes of the Game: Yes or No (both at -115)
Pick: No; each team starting off conservative will lead to no early scores unless there is a big mistake early.

(All spreads and betting lines are courtesy of Sportsbook.com as of 12/27/2010)