2011 Minnesota Twins Position Preview: Catcher (C)

Many conversations about the Minnesota Twins over the past decade have started or ended with Joe Mauer. When Mauer was drafted 1st overall in the 2001 draft, many felt Mark Prior would have been the better choice. That sentiment appeared to be true in 2003, when Prior posted an 18-6 record and finished third in Cy Young voting before Joe Mauer ever took a big league at bat. Mauer did finally end up in the bigs in 2004 though, and has won three batting titles and one MVP award between then and now. Prior hasn't played a big league game in over 4 years.

What does any of that have to do with Mauer's 2011 outlook with the Twins?

He is now, as he was then, the correct pick at number one. He is the best player on the Twins roster, the best player at his position in all of Major League baseball, and the best place to start the preview of the 2001 Minnesota Twins.

AL POSITION RANK:

1st out of 14.

Mauer is the best catcher in all of Major League Baseball, and solidifies the catcher position as the one with the fewest question marks going into the 2011 season for the Twins.

Mauer led all MLB catchers with at least 300 at bats in batting average (.327), on base percentage (.402), runs (88), doubles (43), and walks (65) in 2010. He finished 2nd among AL catchers with 75 RBI, only four off Victor Martinez's AL catcher leading 79.

The only big question mark Twins fans should have with Mauer is his 2010 homerun total of 9, which was a disappointment coming off his 28 HR 2009 campaign in which he won the league MVP. However Mauer's dominance in the rest of the stats over the 2^nd best catcher in the league, Victor Martinez, should calm everyone down.

Martinez was 2nd in the AL in many of the categories Mauer led, but the difference between first at second was pretty drastic. Martinez finished 2nd in batting average (.302), runs (64), and doubles (32), all well behind Mauer's totals.

One more stat to mention: Joe Mauer is the only American League player, regardless of position, with three consecutive seasons of an on base percentage of at least .400.

At the end of the day, there is no one close to Mauer when it comes to catchers in the AL. The more appropriate discussion would be where he ranks among the best players in the league, but that is an argument for a different day.

EXPECTED PRODUCTION VS. LAST YEAR:

Improved Production

As odd as it is to say this about a guy who finished 8th in MVP voting and the third best batting average in the league, I think Mauer is going to have a bit of a bounce back season in 2011. I don't expect Mauer to get back to his 2009 form, when he won the MVP and had one of the top 10 offensive seasons baseball has seen in the last 40 years. However looking at Mauer's first 4 seasons against his three most recent seasons, it is clear Mauer is improving as his career progresses.

Mauer had 1,523 at bats in his first 4 seasons with the Minnesota Twins. He has had 1,569 in his last three. Here are some comparisons of the two segments of his career.

Batting Average:
First 1,523 AB: .313
Last 1,569 AB: .340

Mauer's batting average was .327 last year, which matches his ridiculous career average. His three year average is 13 points higher than that, though, and I expect Mauer to land somewhere closer to that in his 2nd year at Target Field.

Home Runs:
First 1,523 AB: 35 HR
Last 1,569 AB: 46 HR

Not a huge difference here, but Mauer has shown in recent years that he is capable of hitting the long ball. Keep in mind that a lot of Twins players saw their HR numbers dip at Target Field in 2010. Target Field played big, and although the Twins team HR number dropped from 172 in 2009 to 142 in 2010, their doubles rose from 271 in 2009 to 318 in 2010. Mauer increased his double total by 13 in 2010, proving he can still drive the ball. I expect him to adjust to Target Field and bring his HR total up in 2011.

How much do I expect Mauer to improve?

PROJECTED STATS:

Batting Average .335 (.327 in 2010)
Hits: 185 (167)
2B: 40 (43)
HR: 22 (9)
RBI 97 (75)
BB: 75 (65)
OBP: .420 (.402)

BACKUPS:

With the trade of Wilson Ramos last season, and the offseason trade of Jose Morales, Drew Butera is firmly entrenched as the Minnesota Twins backup catcher going into the 2011 season. Butera is more of a defensive specialist, primarily known for being Carl Pavano's go to catcher for the majority of the 2010 season. But as the season wound down and the pennant race heated up, Mauer replaced Butera as Pavano's guy. I would expect 2011 to go the same way. Butera will catch Pavano, giving Mauer one out of every five games off behind the plate. Mauer will be the DH in some of those games, and available off the bench as needed, but as the season rolls on Mauer will again become the everyday catcher for all of the Twins pitchers as the playoffs approach.

Outside of being Pavano's comfort food, and being a solid defensive catcher, Butera doesn't bring much to the table. He hit just .197 last year, and the Twins don't expect much more of him going into 2011. His role on the club is to provide strong defense and stability behind the plate in Mauer's absence, and if he was able to hit around .240-.250 that would be icing on the cake.

I do expect his numbers to rise a little in 2011, but coming off last year, that isn't saying much. I expect him to get between 100-140 at bats and hit .220-.230.

OVERALL BREAKDOWN:

Both Mauer and Butera should improve on their offensive numbers compared to last season. And with Joe Mauer behind the plate for over 80 percent of the Minnesota Twins games in 2011, it is very easy and safe to say that the Minnesota Twins are strongest team in the AL at the catcher position

All stats from baseball-reference.com and espn.com