2011 World Series to Be a Repeat of 2010?: A Fan's Preview

The 2011 World Series is only halfway like the World Series of 2010. In both of the last two years, the Texas Rangers have made it to the Fall Classic - and in both cases, they are taking on a National League champion that upset the Philadelphia Phillies.

Phillies fans like myself had the upset loss in 2010 to the San Francisco Giants further rubbed in when the Giants rolled to the World Series title. Perhaps that made the loss a bit more excusable, yet seeing the Rangers meekly fall to the Giants made it even more upsetting that the Phillies couldn't have done the same.

By that pattern, it is likely inevitable that the St. Louis Cardinals will do exactly what the Giants did last year and roll over the Rangers in the 2011 Fall Classic. While the Cardinals and Rangers look to be evenly matched and could potentially go the distance, so did the Giants and Rangers last season before San Francisco quickly pulled away from Texas.

The Giants used their home-field advantage to jump all over the Rangers - even with Cliff Lee on the mound for Texas in Game 1. When San Francisco finished the job in Texas, it was the culmination of a surprising year in which the Giants snuck up on everyone, got hot at the right time, upset the Phillies and then rolled to the championship from there.

That is almost the same formula that the Cardinals are using now - with the glaring exception of having to make up a double digit deficit in the wild card standings first. In addition, St. Louis doesn't have aces like Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, although Chris Carpenter is entrusted to deliver an ace performance in Game 1 of this World Series. Unlike the 2010 Giants, the 2011 Cardinals are mainly being carried by bats - but even last year's Giants exploded for 20 combined runs in the first two games over the Rangers before the pitchers took over.

While the Cardinals are following the template of last season's champions, the Rangers are trying to change their formula from 2010 - or at least the end of it. By the time Texas won the pennant last time, it had nothing else to throw at San Francisco and fell apart after Lee couldn't deliver another early lift. Although this year's Texas offense is greatly feared, the memories of how it couldn't get the big hits in the previous Fall Classic could factor in - especially if the Rangers are shut down in St. Louis.

The last time Texas faced a shocking NL pennant winner, the World Series turned out to be far less competitive and close than most expected. This time around, experts and fans are expecting an even closer matchup between the Rangers and an unlikely NL champion. But past history indicates that it won't be as close as we all think, and that the Cardinals' Cinderella story is too big to be spoiled now.

If Texas can pull out a Game 1 victory, then all bets are off for the rest of the way. Yet if St. Louis starts out ahead, it will be hard to imagine that a team could overcome deficit after deficit only to blow a lead of its own in the World Series.

Robert Dougherty is a life-long Philadelphia resident who has followed the Phillies since he was eight years old.

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