2012 Election: Sarah Palin Crushed by Barack Obama
Sarah Palin's Popularity in Republican Party Could Be Problematic for a Win in 2012
Considering that Senator Barack Obama became President Barack Obama by only 7% of the popular vote over Senator John McCain (with Sarah Palin in the supporting role), the Republican camp might want to rethink its current direction.
Why? Because this is not the story many polls taken among the party faithful have shown. But that is the problem one runs afoul of when conducting a survey or poll within an homogeneous group. How do the Republicans shape up when polling amongst themselves?
Sarah Palin usually winds up on top or near the top. A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll released on February 27 showed Sarah Palin with a 3-point edge over former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee (29% - 26%) and an 8-point lead over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney (29% - 21%). A month after the Republicans lost the election, Palin had enjoyed higher numbers, 31%, in a CNN/ORC Poll but had come in second to Mike Huckabee (34%) as the Republicans favorite for president in 2012.
On November 8, just after the loss to Barack Obama and several rounds of infighting between Sarah Palin and John McCain staffers, Republicans were much more certain of who they wanted in 2012. A Rasmussen Reports Poll revealed that 64% of Republican voters wanted Sarah Palin as the GOP's next presidential pick. But things have cooled down a bit since then.
Among the party faithful at the 2009 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), Mitt Romney came out on top in a straw poll. Sarah Palin tied for third with Ron Paul with 13% of the vote, a full 7% behind frontrunner Mitt Romney. Louisiana governor and Republican rebuttal sacrifice Bobby Jindal finished second, only a point ahead of Palin.
But does Sarah Palin really have a chance against President Obama, who will be running as an incumbent in 2012? It depends on the President and how successful his policies are in the next three and a half years. If the President pulls the economy out of its tailspin and does not get involved in too much political turmoil, which would include foreign policy fiascos, he will be difficult to beat in 2012. Whoever the Republicans decide to run with will become nothing more than a sacrificial goat to the political process, not something any presidential hopeful would like to have on their resume. However, given the nearly 50-50 split in elections in the past two decades (no election was won by more than 8.5% of the popular vote, which means, if the vote swings in the other direction by a few percentage points and an electoral shift, the election is decided for the other candidate), the President only has to slip up just enough to fall in a couple key states and he could lose in 2012.
Sarah Palin in 2012? Could be. Could she lose by 20%. Yes. Could she win by 20% in 2012? Yes. Could someone else entirely become the Republican choice for president in 2012? Absolutely. Who thought in 2007 that Senator Barack Obama would become the candidate being inaugurated on January 20, 2009?
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Sources:
CNN
Public Policy Polling
Rasmussen Reports
Published by Saul Relative
WVU graduate, with degrees in History, English, Secondary Education, Computer Programming, and Psychology (and nearly a degree in Political Science). Originally from West Virginia, with stints in Virginia,... View profile
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23 Comments
Post a CommentI don't want Obama for a second term ;but against Palin, he is a shoe in. Take heed GOP, don't make the mistake and choose her for the Republican nominee for President.
You're the one that sounds like a hater, Char. He might not win. I won't mind Obama losing in 2012 as long as the Republicans put up someone worth voting for this time. I've said time and again if McCain had stayed the "straight talker" and never picked that fascist in a skirt as a running mate, I'd have voted for him. I wouldn't vote for Sarah Palin for anything ever. We've already had one village idiot running things; one every couple hundred years is enough.
Wow, they really do live in their own little world, don't they?
Palin would not just be "given" the nomination. She would have to prove herself through grueling months of debates, fund-raising, and primaries. Those months chewed up Giuliani and Thompson and will certainly do the same to her.
LOL...You have certainly brought out the best in people in these comments...Anyway, interesting coverage. There is yet a long road to be traveled to 2012.
Carter never had a second term, Sapwolf. Regardless, Carter was plagued with a 444-day hostage situation he failed to rectify. I don't believe any sitting president will make that kind of mistake again. And there's one key point to be made here: Palin is not Reagan.
Ronald Reagan was polled 20 points behind Jimmy Carter early in Carter's first term.
Interesting.
It is amazing to me that given his and the Democratic party's performance since taking office, that anyone with even a single active neuron will admit to voting for Barack Obama. I am sure that Obama and the Democrats look out every day at the voters across the fruited plain (except in flyover country) and say ..."suckers!...". We are stealing their money from them and making them fight each other to get it back. What really galls me the most is President Obama's comment on Monday the 17th of March 2009, saying that service member wounded in battle who have access to private health care insurance should pay for their own care. Either by design or through sheer neglect, this statement is an insult of the ugliest kind directed at everyone who has or is wearing their country's uniform. There is no excuse for such a statement - even though it was retracted - there is no excuse. For Heaven's sake - who do the Democrats think send our service members into harm's way? President Obama has prov
The problem, Carpenter, is that NOBODY has a clue about how to run the country. That's why everybody is in such a tizzy. That's why Obama and crew say it will take time. That's why the conservatives say it's all too fast, too much. That's why some say it's just not enough. And no domestic or foreign policy advisor or Nobel Prize-winning economist can agree with another on how this or that should be done.
Wow! That's depressing.
Imagine how Palin would be trounced if Obama actually turns out to have a clue about running the country.