2012 Republican Presidential Candidates

Believe it or not; the 2012 presidential campaign is almost upon us. Republicans will begin to announce their candidacies in early 2011 and by next summer the campaign will be in full swing.

Already there has been polling on who is most likely to be the Republican nominee to face President Obama in the 2012 general election. In that polling the following four Republicans appear to be head & shoulders above the competition. Although things could certainly change by the time the primaries begin in early 2012, as of right now it seems very likely that the GOP nominee will be one of these people.

Sarah Palin

While Palin is seen as a laughing stock by many Americans, she is amazingly taken quite seriously by the Republican faithful. Palin has shown herself to be ignorant time and time again and her intelligence appears to be at best average. And she quit the biggest job she's ever had (Governor of Alaska) only halfway through her term.

She's not exactly Presidential material.

But if the billionaire funded Tea Party movement continues to be strong in the world of right wing politics I think she has a real chance at winning the Republican nomination. In fact, in such a scenario I think Palin would have to be seen as the favorite.

If Palin does win the nomination, this would be a boon for President Obama and the Democratic Party because she is seen as unqualified to be President by a large majority of Americans and her favorable ratings are below 40%.

Mitt Romney

Palin is the "Tea Party" candidate and Romney is the establishment candidate.

Tea Party people see Romney as being a political opportunist who changes his positions based on who he's talking to at the moment. In other words they think he's a "RINO" (Republican In Name Only.)

Whether Romney wins the nomination or not depends largely on how powerful the Tea Party is by 2012. If it's still as big (or bigger) than it is today then it seems highly unlikely that Romney would be able to pull out the nomination.

This is great news for President Obama as Romney is almost definitely the most formidable opponent the Republicans could put against him in the general election.

Mike Huckabee

Huckabee's big weakness in that he is not seen as a "fiscal conservative."

Palin and Huckabee would probably both greatly benefit from the other one of them not running for President as I believe they appeal to a similar segment of the population.

Huckabee's biggest general election weakness if he were to win the nomination is his extreme right wing views on social issues. In 1992 he said that people with AIDS should be "quarantined" and he has said that he is against a woman's right to choose even in cases of rape and incest.

That means that he would force a girl who was raped by her father to give birth to that child. To me that's unthinkable and I think most Americans agree. This is 2010 not 1210. That kind of barbaric dark ages thinking has no place in the modern world.

Newt Gingrich

Gingrich is a great example of just how desperate the modern Republican Party is. How could someone as unlikable as Gingrich even be considered as a serious candidate for the GOP nomination? Most Americans still remember him as the guy that shut down the government in 1990s because of some personal problem he had with President Clinton.

His favorability is as low (or even lower) than Sarah Palin's. He would be an extremely easy opponent for President Obama to defeat in 2012. Obama's approval rating would have to be below 40% for Gingrich to stand a chance.