3-Way Rivalry: Are Djokovic, Nadal & Federer the Rock-Paper-Scissors of Tennis?

Tennis pros Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have been at the top of the ATP rankings for years, competing mostly with each other to maintain the throne. Now along comes Novak Djokovic, and many tennis journalists and fans are looking for the rivalry to shift, knocking the 29-year-old Federer (30 on August 8) to the curb. Is this just the natural evolution of the game, or is it too soon to eliminate the possibility of a riveting three-way competition for the top spot?

Novak Djokovic

Djokovic has had a stellar year. Heading into the hard court season, he's at 48-1. He's taken the Australian Open and Wimbledon, and pushed past Nadal to land at the number one spot. He actually credits the former Top 2 rivals, Nadal and Federer, with his success: "I know that if I want to win against them in the semifinals, finals of a Grand Slam, I have to raise my game, I have to play on top of my game. I have to improve, and they made me improve. They made me a better player."

Djokovic will be playing to his strengths on the hard court, and riding on a high of dominating play. His fifth victory over Nadal this year at Wimbledon was aggressive and nearly tireless. He raced around the court, sliding and returning impossible shots--he basically out-Nadal-ed Nadal. One of the Djoker's biggest obstacles has been his emotional state during a match, which he's learning to control. Winning 48 times definitely helps the confidence factor, and most tennis aficionados are counting on Djokovic ending the year on a high, and holding that number one spot for a good, long while.

Rafael Nadal

Current number two Nadal hopes to have something to say about that. Like an assassin lurking around the next corner, the Spaniard's planning on pouncing when Djoko's guard is down. "My experience says this level is not forever," Nadal said at his post-Wimbledon press event. "Even for me when I was last year winning three Grand Slams, my level of last year is not forever. Probably the level of Novak of today is not forever. I gonna be here fighting all the time, waiting my moment." Now we are all picturing Nadal having a "Princess Bride" moment, abruptly throwing his racquet into his right hand and informing Djokovic, "I know something you don't know--I am not left-handed."

It's possible that Nadal has gotten used to Federer's old school style of play, and facing someone more like himself has been tougher to adjust to. He also graciously admitted that Djokovic has just been playing better. After losing to Djokovic at Wimbledon, Nadal confessed he'd made some key mistakes against the Serb this year. The four losses to his new rival were looming over him, and that natural apprehension contributed to the fifth loss. "To change that is probably be little bit less nervous than these times," he explained, "play more aggressive, and all the time be confident with myself. That's what I gonna try next time... If not, I gonna be here explaining the sixth."

While it was a bit shocking to see Nadal fold so dramatically in the Wimbledon final, it doesn't make sense to count him out yet. Tennis great Pete Sampras recently projected that Nadal would pass his Slam record, and possibly move past Federer's. It's clear Nadal is feeling the pressure, however. Not long after his Roland Garros win, he was shocked when asked if he was "in decline", and the normally even-tempered Spaniard got a bit testy when he was questioned about skipping the Davis Cup this year. "I cannot be in every place. I cannot be competitive every week of the year. My body needs to rest."

Roger Federer

As Nadal is learning, tennis is a brutal sport, often more to the ego than the body. Once you get to the top of your game, the moment you falter, everyone is writing your retirement speech. Federer still holds the record with 16 Grand Slam singles titles, and had been holding steady at number two until Djokovic started sowing the seeds in 2010 for his rampaging victory tour to number one. Fed is still playing artfully and winning matches, but the moment he slipped to number three, the sports writers and tennis fans were calling for his head. Actually, they've been trying to say he's "over" since 2008. (Yet from 2008-2010, he took the elusive French Open and made himself a career Grand Slam on top of the 12 Majors he already had, so obviously the prophesies of doom were premature.)

There's no doubt Federer has had a tough year, if you only look at the final win column of the tournaments. He's made the finals, semi-finals and occasionally slipped out in the quarters (and one third-round). If you're ranked at number 15, you'd pray for such a good season. But when you're a former number one, you've got some explaining to do when you don't take the trophy home. If Fed doesn't nab the US Open, everyone will be buzzing about it being his first year since 2002 to not win a major title. If you think Federer was testy during press conferences before, just wait for the chillingly awkward moments possibly to come.

By his own account, Federer isn't ready to slip away quietly yet. His post-Wimbledon press conference shows he's perfectly happy with his health and skills at the moment, and he's confident of future wins. He only has to look back to his defeat of Djokovic in this year's French Open, making him the only player to finally put a stop to the Serb's 43-match winning streak. His competition with Nadal in the final was also ridiculously tight, with excellent play on both sides of the net. The quarter-final loss at Wimbledon looks more like an aberration than a trend, and perhaps even a result of overconfidence.

Rock, Paper, Scissors

If we look at the back-to-back French and English majors, it's the tennis equivalent of Rock, Paper, Scissors: Federer beats Djokovic, Nadal beats Federer, Djokovic beats Nadal. A three-way tennis rivalry would be a lot more exciting to watch, especially if players like Andy Murray or Juan Martin del Potro nip in for an occasional upset. Federer himself is happy to add Djokovic to the mix. "He deserves to become No. 1 after an immense start to the year," the Swiss player praised after Djoko's shift in the rankings. "It's good for tennis that it happened." It's also good for Federer to stay in the mix. His face-off with Nadal at the French Open earned the highest TV ratings for the tournament in 12 years.

It's no doubt that Federer is a little bit slower than he used to be, but he still has the finesse and concentration to beat his opponents. He just needs to find a way to get over that glitch in his system that's preventing him from capitalizing on his leads--he's been letting way too many opportune moments get by him. As for Nadal, his recent vacation and resting his injured foot should do him good. He's got it right that a strategy change against Djokovic is in order, and he needs to get his single-minded intensity back. It's apparent that even the mighty Nadal gets worn down over a year of tough matches.

Djokovic shouldn't rest on his laurels. He's had a great year so far, but he's not invincible. Even a faltering Nadal managed to swing back in the third set of the Wimbledon final, knocking Nole back 6-1. Federer also got under the Serb's skin at Roland Garros, with Djokovic succumbing to frustration and losing his momentum. He's fit and strong and extremely quick on his feet right now; if he can maintain a zen attitude he'll be tough to beat.

The ideal outcome would be a win for Federer at the US Open. That would mean one major each for he and Nadal, and two for Djokovic this year. Forgive the mixed sports metaphor, but now that would be a horse race.