300 Career Wins: The Future of a Baseball Milestone

300 career wins is one of baseball's golden numbers, a major milestone that takes both superior skill and longevity to attain. Historically, this milestone has placed a pitcher among the elite of the elite, and more or less sealed the deal on a pitcher's Hall of Fame case. In the long history of major league baseball, only twenty-five men have won 300 or more games in their careers.

In recent years, we've been treated to several pitchers reaching the 300 career win milestone. Roger Clemens won his 300^th game in 2003, and finished his career with 354 total wins. Clemens retired after the 2007 season. Greg Maddux followed with his 300^th win in 2004, and as of this writing is still active at age 42 and sitting at 351 career wins. In 2007, Tom Glavine, a long-time teammate of Maddux', joined the club and sits at 305 wins at age 42.

One more over-40 pitcher seems poised to join the 300 win club, if not later this year, then sometime next season. That is Randy Johnson, who sits at 292 wins as of this writing. After battling injuries, the 44 year old hurler is currently 8-7 with a 4.58 ERA. One would assume that Johnson will hang on to get his 300^th victory, although he certainly does not need the final eight wins to cement his status as a sure Hall of Famer.

Assuming Johnson gets his 300^th win, that will make four pitchers attaining the milestone in a mere six or seven seasons. Pitchers reaching the 300 win milestone seems to happen in bunches like this, with fairly large gaps in between. Before Clemens won his 300^th game, the last pitcher to do so was Nolan Ryan, who won his 300^th thirteen seasons earlier, in 1990. Ryan's 300^th came at the tail end of a group of six pitchers reaching the milestone in only eight seasons (Gaylord Perry, Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver, Phil Niekro, and Don Sutton all won their 300^th game between 1982 and 1986). Before Perry in 1982, nobody had won 300 games since 1963, when Early Wynn joined Warren Spahn (who joined the 300 win club two seasons earlier), as the only members of the club since the start of World War II.

After each of the last few "bunches" of 300 game winners, writers and fans have lauded the pitchers who won 300 as probably the last to ever do so. In recent years, this has become even more prevalent. Clearly, the reasoning went, with five man rotations and pitch counts, no pitcher would reach 300 wins. As the recent spate of 300 win pitchers proves, you should never say never. Randy Johnson will not be the last pitcher to win 300 games in his career (assume he gets to 300). Looking at the list of active leaders in victories, though, one has to think it will be a while. A look at the pitchers with between 200 and 299 career victories, and those pitchers with between 100 and 200 career victories will give us an idea of who has the potential to reach 300 wins, and how long into the future that might be.

The 200-299 Career Victory Club

In addition to Randy Johnson and his 293 career wins, there are seven other active pitchers who have between 200 and 264 career victories. A list of those seven pitchers is as follows:

Mike Mussina (39) 264

Jamie Moyer (45) 240

Kenny Rogers (43) 218

Curt Schilling (41) 216

Andy Pettitte (36) 213

Pedro Martinez (36) 212

John Smoltz (41) 210

Next to each pitchers name, their age is in parenthesis and their career win total follows.

Mike Mussina is having a nice season at age 39 for the New York Yankees, currently 14-7 with a 3.44 ERA. This is following a year last season where he went 11-10 with a 5.15 ERA and many people thought his career was over. Still, even if he were to win six more games this season for his first ever twenty win season, he would still need to win thirty more games after the age of 40. While some pitchers remain successful into their 40's, that is hardly the norm. So, while Mussina could potentially reach 300 wins, it seems an outside chance at this point.

Jamie Moyer is a soft-tossing ageless wonder, but at 45, he'd have to pitch until he was well into his fifties to make up the sixty wins he needs to reach 300. Nobody is that ageless. The same fate is sure to befall Kenny Rogers, who at 43 just does not have enough time to eighty two games he'd need to reach 300.

Curt Schilling is 41 years old, and missed the entire season due to injuries. He could potentially pitch next season, although there are indications that he will probably retire instead. Even if he were to come back, he's barely two thirds of the way to 300. John Smoltz, another forty-one year old pitcher who is currently on the disabled list, also has to be considered to have no shot.

The two "youngsters" of the group, thirty-six year olds Andy Pettitte and Pedro Martinez, would have to win 87 and 88 more games to reach 300, respectively. While the youngest of the group mentioned here, neither is young in baseball years. Martinez has missed significant time each of the last three seasons with injuries, and may well retire at the end of his current contract this fall. Pettitte, while healthier (he is currently 12-8 with a 4.18 ERA), almost retired after last season, and very likely will retire after this season. The thought that he can hold off the pull of home and family long enough to come anywhere close to 300 wins seems unlikely. To put it in perspective, even if he were to win an average of 15 games a year, he'd still need to pitch six more seasons to reach 300 wins.

Not reaching 300 wins in no means demeans these pitchers careers. They are all great pitchers, and I would imagine that Martinez and Smoltz are certain to be elected to the Hall of Fame when eligible and it's very likely that Schilling will join them. Mussina and Pettitte will also get some votes, and may someday get into Cooperstown.

The 150 to 199 Win Club

I'm not sure you can call this group a "club", as they have only two members. Maybe call them the "150 to 199 win duo". Both of these pitchers are currently part of another club, the Boston Red Sox. They are 41 year old Tim Wakefield (174 wins) and 35 year old Bartolo Colon (150 wins). Wakefield, despite the fact that knuckleballers like him tend to pitch well into their 40's, simply doesn't have a shot at 300. Colon, while only 35, is only half way there and has been much of the last three seasons. His chances also seem to be pretty much nil.

The 100 to 149 Win Club

For a pitcher with between 100 and 150 wins, age becomes a major factor in their chance to reach the 300 win milestone. For a pitcher with 150 career wins, they'd have to average 15 wins a year for 10 years to reach 150. For a pitcher with 100 career wins, a pitcher would have to average 20 wins for 10 years (or 15 for a little over 13). Therefore, it's safe to say that any pitcher with a chance at getting to 300, a pitcher in this range would probably have to be less than 30 years old. Of the 31 pitchers with 100 to 149 career wins, seven of them were 30 or under during the 2008 season.

Just outside the 30 year old cut-off are two pitchers, Roy Halladay and Javier Vazquez, both 31 years old in 2008. Halladay has 124 career wins, and Vazquez 121. Despite their similar ages and win totals, it is clear that Halladay is the better pitcher of the two, based both on career numbers (63 losses, 3.54 career ERA vs. 122 wins and 4.31 career ERA) and their current year results (13-8, 2.77 vs. 8-9, 4.66). Both pitchers would have to average 15 wins per season for about 12 seasons to reach 300 wins. That would put them at age 43. Halladay has averaged 16 wins per year in his career so far, and Vazquez has averaged 12. It seems that if either had a shot, it would be Halladay, but it'll be a long shot even for him to reach 300.

Next up on the list, both at age 30 this season, are Roy Oswalt with 120 wins and Barry Zito with 119. While both are struggling this season, one is clearly the better bet to continue to win games at the high rate that would be necessary to approach 300. That is Oswalt, who despite being 8-8 with a 4.74 ERA this year, sits at 120-62 with a 3.21 ERA for his career. By comparison, Zito is 119-89 with a 3.78 ERA and is in the middle of a rough season at 5-13 with a 5.40 ERA ERA. This is following a 11-13 season with a 4.53 ERA. Zito needs to really turn things around to get back in this conversation. As far as Oswalt is concerned, he needs to average 15 wins a season for the next 12 seasons. In his career, he has averaged about 17 wins per season. If he had a few big seasons, and stays healthy into his early 40's, he'll have a shot at approaching 300, although a lot has to go right for that to happen (as it does for ANY pitcher).

In the same boat as Zito is his former teammate, Mark Mulder. After a great start to his career in which he won fifteen or more games 5 straight seasons, he has fallen on hard times due to injuries. While his career record sits at an impressive 103-60 with a 4.18 ERA, his last three seasons have been 6-7 with a 7.14 ERA, 0-3 with a 12.27 ERA, and this season he is winless in 3 games with a 10.80 ERA. He has missed substantial time all three seasons with injuries. He'll need a major turnaround to re-insert himself into this conversation.

Next up is Mark Buehrle, who has pitched his entire career for the Chicago White Sox. He sits at 115-85 with a 3.82 career ERA at age 29. He would need to average 15 wins a season for slightly more than 12 seasons to reach 300, and while it's possible, his recent seasons don't suggest that will happen. In the last two complete seasons, he has won 12 and 10 games, respectively. This season, he is 8-10 with a 4.07 ERA. Certainly, another great pitcher who is a long-shot for 300 wins.

The last three pitchers who qualify for this review may have the best chance of reaching 300 wins, if only because they have the most time on their hands and all have been pitching well. All three pitchers have under 111 wins, so they have a long time to go and a lot can happen, but even to make it this far, they deserve some recognition.

CC Sabathia has 111 career wins and is only 27 years old. He won the Cy Young award last season with a 19 win season, and already has 11 wins this season, including a 5-0 record since being traded to the Milwaukee Brewers in July. Sabathia is free agent after this season, and looks poised to sign one of the most lucrative contracts ever for a pitcher. Despite his great start, he'd still need to average 15 wins a season for about twelve and a half seasons to have a shot at 300 wins. That would put him at age 39, so it could happen. Working for him is the fact that one would imagine he'll sign with a good team this off-season, giving him a chance at a lot of wins in the future. Working against him, in addition to sheer numbers, is his size. Listed at 6'7" tall and 250 pounds, Sabathia is one of the largest pitchers in history. How his body will hold up as he ages is unknown, and his path to 300 wins has little for error.

Jon Garland has a 102-88 career record with a 4.40 career ERA, putting him within potential striking distance of 300 if he could average 15 wins for the next 13 seasons. His current career average for wins is 13, so asking him to not only pitch into his early 40's, but also pick up the pace, win-wise, seems a lot to ask. Still, at his current age, he is in the conversation.

The last pitcher we'll look at today is Johan Santana, who at age 29 sports a 102-51 career record with a 3.18 career ERA. Traded to the Mets from the Twins last winter, he is only 9-7 this season, but sports a 2.85 ERA. He signed the largest contract ever given a pitcher after arriving in New York, and should get better as he adjusts to his new city and league. With two Cy Young awards to his credit, Santana is one of the best pitchers of in recent history. If he can stay healthy, 15 wins per season for the next thirteen years would put him at 300. Sure he's only one-third of the way there, but he's got a shot.

Conclusion

We looked at several pitchers who have at least a statistically feasible chance at winning 300 or more games in their careers. Will any of them make it? The odds are against them, for sure. Some of them have a shot, though. At the moment, I'd say that the two with the best chance are CC Sabathia and Johan Santana. The two have a great track record, and are still young. Based on a 15-win average, they'll have to both pitch a long time to approach 300. Of course, a few 20-win seasons change the required win total substantially. Still, they are only about one-third of the way, and injuries can strike down pitchers at any time. An injury-plagued season or two can completely throw them out of contention. Still, it'll be fun to watch their careers unfold.

Of course, one of the other pitchers may really pick up the pace, and make a real run at 300 wins. Or, the next pitcher to reach 300 may be just starting their career, either in the majors or minor leagues. The next 300 game winner may still be in little league, too, or not even born. It's impossible for us to say, but it will be a lot of funs watching great pitchers take their shot at the ultimate pitching milestone over the coming years and decades. I do not believe we have seen the last 300 game winner in the major leagues, as this idea has been assumed too many times and then knocked aside by some special pitcher. We'll probably see another 300 game winner some day, we'll just have to wait a while.